Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the US has caught the attention of observers from all over the world, especially South Asia. Most of them are focused on the radical impact of the visit, but in my view, it will not bring about any substantive change.
The US-India relations strengthened after the Cold War. PM Modi’s visit is a testament to the continuity of those relations. This closeness or strategic relationship, as termed by US leaders, however, does not imply the two countries are part of one bloc. The era of blocs is over. The current era of complex multi-polarity does not have space for blocs. It has states aligning with different states on different issues. This new era of international relations has provided more manoeuvring space to medium and small powers, especially those with little or more economic and political stability.
There are points of convergence and divergence in the US-India relations. The US would ideally like India to be an ally against China as well as Russia, however, India would prefer to keep its strategic independence. While each side tries to resolve divergences by pulling the other to its worldview, both are not permitting those divergences to harm their converging interests.
The issues of convergence start from a common threat perception from China. Though, India has its conflictual relations with China, but the US expectations of it forming an alliance against China on questions of Taiwan may not bear fruit. The divergence starts from continued Indian relations with Russia, especially purchase of weapons. The US is also not pleased with India’s stand on Ukraine and its purchase of oil from Russia. Many in the US consider India’s human rights violation is a serious issue and President Joe Biden must object to them. The US president in his welcoming remarks also brought up the issue of debacle to democratic traditions and values, but has not made it a point of any serious difference. PM Modi ignored these remarks in his speech and emphasised the democratic character of both states.
The two sides have reached agreements on the US transferring weaponised drone technology to India, production of jet engines for warplanes in India by General Electric, increased intelligence sharing and resolve some issues of more cooperation in higher education, research, trade and easier visa regime. The US side must have brought up the issue of Ukraine and oil purchase from Russia in their meeting but Modi has given no indication of any change of policy. The sale of weaponised drone technology is part of an attempt by the US to gradually move India away from acquiring Russian weapons. The extent of its success on this front will not become evident soon or ever. Modi will address heads of American companies interested in investing in India.
Modi received a grand welcome at the White House. Some 7,000 people attended the event, which is a reflection of the significance attached by the US to its relations with India. This indicates that neither the US nor India is ready to compromise on their relations in areas of cooperation, irrespective of India’s relations with Russia or violations of human rights.
For Pakistan, Modi’s visit to the US changes nothing. The closer US-India relations are not new. Pakistan’s relations with the US have always been ‘transactional’, not strategic. One can perhaps say the same about the India-US ties, except that China has just emerged on the global stage and is expanding its influence.
So, considering India’s economic size and strength, this convergence between India and the US is not going to end any time soon.
The US, despite the relatively decreased strategic significance of Pakistan and no new transaction in sight, is not ready to completely abandon Pakistan. Pakistan is also interested in keeping better relations with the US. Pakistan has to come out of the India-focused foreign and security policy. Also, Pakistan must maintain relations with China and improve ties with Russia. Pakistan’s decision to buy Russian oil is a step in that direction.
In a joint statement issued by the White House, Modi condemned cross border terrorism and called on Pakistan to take immediate action to ensure that no territory under its control is used for launching terrorist attacks. It added, “They [Biden and Modi] called for the perpetrators of the 26/11 Mumbai and Pathankot attacks to be brought to justice". This statement will push Pakistan to react strongly. Further, the US sale of weapons and weapons technology to India may encourage Pakistan to acquire more expensive weapons, most probably from China and Russia. However, given Pakistan’s economic situation and political polarisation, the country can ill afford such reactions. Any additional burden will make Pakistan more insecure.
The new complex multi-polarity provides Pakistan the same space as others, including India. How Pakistan utilises that space depends on its internal political and economic stability.
Pakistan needs to look inwards, put its house in order and then try to find a better space in the global politics.
In the meanwhile, there is no need to get overly anxious about India-US relations – even if it is concerned about the transfer of US military technology to India. There is nothing alarmingly about Modi’s visit to the US or his warm welcome at the White House. It reaffirms the existing relations between the two.
The writer is former chairman and professor of International Relations at the University of Peshawar.
The US-India relations strengthened after the Cold War. PM Modi’s visit is a testament to the continuity of those relations. This closeness or strategic relationship, as termed by US leaders, however, does not imply the two countries are part of one bloc. The era of blocs is over. The current era of complex multi-polarity does not have space for blocs. It has states aligning with different states on different issues. This new era of international relations has provided more manoeuvring space to medium and small powers, especially those with little or more economic and political stability.
There are points of convergence and divergence in the US-India relations. The US would ideally like India to be an ally against China as well as Russia, however, India would prefer to keep its strategic independence. While each side tries to resolve divergences by pulling the other to its worldview, both are not permitting those divergences to harm their converging interests.
The issues of convergence start from a common threat perception from China. Though, India has its conflictual relations with China, but the US expectations of it forming an alliance against China on questions of Taiwan may not bear fruit. The divergence starts from continued Indian relations with Russia, especially purchase of weapons. The US is also not pleased with India’s stand on Ukraine and its purchase of oil from Russia. Many in the US consider India’s human rights violation is a serious issue and President Joe Biden must object to them. The US president in his welcoming remarks also brought up the issue of debacle to democratic traditions and values, but has not made it a point of any serious difference. PM Modi ignored these remarks in his speech and emphasised the democratic character of both states.
Modi received a grand welcome at the White House. Some 7,000 people attended the event, which is a reflection of the significance attached by the US to its relations with India. This indicates that neither the US nor India is ready to compromise on their relations in areas of cooperation, irrespective of India’s relations with Russia or violations of human rights.
The two sides have reached agreements on the US transferring weaponised drone technology to India, production of jet engines for warplanes in India by General Electric, increased intelligence sharing and resolve some issues of more cooperation in higher education, research, trade and easier visa regime. The US side must have brought up the issue of Ukraine and oil purchase from Russia in their meeting but Modi has given no indication of any change of policy. The sale of weaponised drone technology is part of an attempt by the US to gradually move India away from acquiring Russian weapons. The extent of its success on this front will not become evident soon or ever. Modi will address heads of American companies interested in investing in India.
Modi received a grand welcome at the White House. Some 7,000 people attended the event, which is a reflection of the significance attached by the US to its relations with India. This indicates that neither the US nor India is ready to compromise on their relations in areas of cooperation, irrespective of India’s relations with Russia or violations of human rights.
For Pakistan, Modi’s visit to the US changes nothing. The closer US-India relations are not new. Pakistan’s relations with the US have always been ‘transactional’, not strategic. One can perhaps say the same about the India-US ties, except that China has just emerged on the global stage and is expanding its influence.
So, considering India’s economic size and strength, this convergence between India and the US is not going to end any time soon.
The US, despite the relatively decreased strategic significance of Pakistan and no new transaction in sight, is not ready to completely abandon Pakistan. Pakistan is also interested in keeping better relations with the US. Pakistan has to come out of the India-focused foreign and security policy. Also, Pakistan must maintain relations with China and improve ties with Russia. Pakistan’s decision to buy Russian oil is a step in that direction.
In a joint statement issued by the White House, Modi condemned cross border terrorism and called on Pakistan to take immediate action to ensure that no territory under its control is used for launching terrorist attacks. It added, “They [Biden and Modi] called for the perpetrators of the 26/11 Mumbai and Pathankot attacks to be brought to justice". This statement will push Pakistan to react strongly. Further, the US sale of weapons and weapons technology to India may encourage Pakistan to acquire more expensive weapons, most probably from China and Russia. However, given Pakistan’s economic situation and political polarisation, the country can ill afford such reactions. Any additional burden will make Pakistan more insecure.
The new complex multi-polarity provides Pakistan the same space as others, including India. How Pakistan utilises that space depends on its internal political and economic stability.
Pakistan needs to look inwards, put its house in order and then try to find a better space in the global politics.
In the meanwhile, there is no need to get overly anxious about India-US relations – even if it is concerned about the transfer of US military technology to India. There is nothing alarmingly about Modi’s visit to the US or his warm welcome at the White House. It reaffirms the existing relations between the two.
The writer is former chairman and professor of International Relations at the University of Peshawar.