Climate Change, Political Instability, Economic Crisis: Is Pakistan A Failing State?

Climate Change, Political Instability, Economic Crisis: Is Pakistan A Failing State?
Pakistan has been delineated as a failing state by scholars, researchers, historians and analysts for some time. They base their argument on political and economic instability in the country since 1947. However, if there is anything that can brand Pakistan as a failing state, it is intensification of climate change.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres pleaded the international community to assist Pakistan in overcoming the climate crisis. He commented, “Today it’s Pakistan, tomorrow it could be your country where you live. It requires a global response”.

He urged the countries of the world to come out of their comfort zones and embrace universalism and egalitarianism for the sake of our collective survival. Perhaps it is time the industrialised countries lead the poverty-stricken countries out of the climate crisis -- of droughts, cyclones and flash floods. Else, irregular climatic changes will continue to cause destruction from the global north to south.

The Germanwatch Global Climate Index 1993-2012 marked Pakistan as the 12th most vulnerable state to climate disasters. Despite this indication, Pakistan has not taken any long-term policy steps to counter changing weather patterns. Although Pakistan launched its National Disaster Risk Reduction Policy in 2013, nothing considerable has came out of it as yet. The policy was made in 2010 after the unprecedented floods displaced 1.5 million people living mostly in rural areas, inundated 2.5 million acres of agricultural land and 350,000 homes.

Twelve years on, a more destructive climatic calamity hit the country. It received 391mm (15.4 inches) of rain -- 190 percent more rain than recorded in the last 30 years. The example of Sindh is most shocking, as it got 466 percent more rain than average.

The climate crisis is worsening. It has struck 33 million people, with approximately 1,400 killed, washed away homes, roads, railways and crops.  It has submerged one-third of the country. Further, 1.73 million houses are damaged and 75,4708 livestock perished. The provisional estimate of the loss to Pakistan is calculated at 30 billion dollars.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres pleaded the international community to assist Pakistan in overcoming the climate crisis. He commented, “Today it’s Pakistan, tomorrow it could be your country where you live. It requires a global response”.

Despite the fact that Pakistan introduced its first-ever National Security Policy in 2018, where food security was emphasized, Pakistan’s position has not improved. The Asian Development Bank ranked Pakistan 92nd out of 116 countries on the Global Hunger Index in 2021. Similarly, the United Nations' Economic And Social Commission for Asia and Pacific has estimated that Pakistan would lose nine percent of its GDP due to climate change, resulting in shortages of wheat, sugarcane, maize and cotton.

More worryingly, it is predicted that Pakistan has lost more geographical mass since 2000 to river floods than in the last 20th century, as a result of glacial outburst in the Himalayan mountain ranges.

In view of this data, it is safe to say that Pakistan will be hit by a food crisis sooner than later. It seems true amid the Russia-Ukraine war as Pakistan used to meet its wheat requirements of 39 percent from Ukraine. Without the international community’s help, Pakistan cannot come out of this crisis.

It seems Pakistan is fast on track to becoming a failed state. It needs unity of action guided by a climatic policy as there is no time left for petty power politics.

The writer is a freelance columnist. He tweets at @Shahzai02364040. He can be reached at They6776@gmail.com