Hostility between India and Pakistan has always ebbed and flowed but the relationship has never reached stability. As Clausewitz aptly expressed, “War is politics carried out by different means,” and this is certainly lived out in South Asia. India’s 2025 Operation Sindoor reminded the international community that nuclear-armed neighbors are capable of having short but harsh conflicts. It also made clear that factors such as domestic policy, image and the latest technology are now more important in shaping wars. At the heart of these shifts is Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. By criticising Pakistan, Modi has been able to unite his party’s religious-nationalist supporters. Aiming for complete victory in the upcoming Bihar elections, the BJP is reviving this style of speech. For Modi, war serves two purposes: it allows him to encourage his followers, grab the news spotlight and make his leadership visible. From Balakot in 2019 to Operation Sindoor in 2025, every military situation benefited the Modi-led BJP in political, if not electoral, terms.
Importantly, this performative logic was evident in the May 2025 case. Following the terror attack in Pahalgam, the Modi government unleashed missile and drone strikes as part of Operation Sindoor. The strikes against supposed terror groups in Pakistan-administered Kashmir were also intended to display the government’s strength and seriousness vis-à-vis its constituents. Nonetheless, Pakistan chose to respond with Operation Bunyan al-Marsus, hitting Indian military targets neatly.
Even so, the situation did not escalate into a full-blown war. Both sides moved fast to settle the conflict, mainly because they realised a nuclear flare-up could be disastrous for both states. From that point on, India has concentrated on analysing situations rather than taking immediate action. India is unlikely to risk new aggression at the moment, focusing on rethinking its military strategy instead. Officials in New Delhi are analysing the lessons of 2025 military standoff, and diverting their attention toward drones, electronic warfare and AI-based targeting. India’s actions are likely to be much more refined and well thought out the next time it acts.
As long as Modi politicises conflict, the risk of war remains looming over both India and Pakistan
On its part, Pakistan, too, is undergoing change. Critical weaknesses in air defense were discovered in the 2025 conflict during fights with Israeli-supplied drones operated by India. Therefore, Pakistan is now putting emphasis on drone defense, improved CCTV technology assisted by AI and special electronic equipment. The lesson for Pakistan was that upcoming conflicts would depend more on algorithms and cyber expertise than on tanks crossing the border. The next India-Pakistan confrontation, consequently, would center on the use of drones. Both countries are relying on swarms and munitions that stay above targets and AI to ensure strikes are both fast and accurate. Although this competition in technology is taking place under the radar, it is already changing the way states build their defenses and strategies. Future wars could be short and limited, yet they will involve a high level of automation, move quickly and be largely unpredictable.
Still, from a technical perspective, politics is the most disruptive force instead of technology. As long as Modi politicises conflict, the risk of war remains looming over both India and Pakistan. In contemporary politics, war means winning over voters rather than leading strategic military efforts for security purposes. Every military strike serves to emphasise the candidate’s campaign points, instead of directing them at other countries.
The fact that war is performed for political gain accentuates the risk of escalation. It makes it difficult to tell the difference between actual threats and those invented simply to provoke a response. As both Indian and Pakistani leaders see conflict from a political standpoint, there is an increased danger of misestimating the situation. Just because the 2025 war ended doesn’t mean that new actions aren’t being plotted in various offices, AI laboratories and military areas. As stated by Clausewitz, any war in the region will simply be the continuation of political disputes, now appearing in even more powerful and threatening ways.