One of the most controversial foreign policy issues with domestic implications is the question of Pakistan recognising Israel. From time to time, the debate on whether Pakistan should or should not recognise Israel is unleashed, with opponents and supporters presenting their arguments. But such discourse usually takes place when there is a high-profile visit or event, which is then linked with the issue of Pakistan recognising the Jewish state.
When Israel and the PLO signed the historic peace deal called the Oslo Accords on 13 September 1993 on the lawns of the White House, with President Clinton standing in the middle witnessing the handshake between Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and PLO Chairman Yasser Arafat, the debate on whether Pakistan should recognise Israel and accept a reality—when Egypt, the PLO and Jordan had already granted legitimacy to the Jewish state—gained impetus. But given the domestic implications if Pakistan were to grant diplomatic recognition to Israel, no government in Islamabad can take such a step.
Thirty-two years ago, when the PLO-Israeli accord was signed and when the Middle East Peace Process had momentum, it made sense for Pakistan to move in the direction of recognising Israel. But following the policies of the ultra-right-wing government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which rejects a two-state solution and seeks to annex the West Bank, the timing of the debate on recognising Israel is not right. The unabated genocide of Palestinians in Gaza and Israel’s attacks on Qatar are facts which negate any favourable discourse in Pakistan on granting recognition to the Jewish state.
It is true that, unlike in the Cold War era, the majority of United Nations members granted recognition to Israel. But the legitimacy which the Jewish state secured is questioned when it engages in genocide and the persecution of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank, and insists that 2.2 million Palestinians living in Gaza should leave their homes and take refuge elsewhere. Furthermore, Israel has established hundreds of Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank and seeks to annex that territory. The only global power which supports the policies of Benjamin Netanyahu is the United States. The Abraham Accords mediated by the Trump administration in 2020, which led to the recognition of Israel by the UAE and Bahrain, could have led to Abraham Accords 2.0, but were subverted because of the Hamas attack on Israel on 7 October 2023 and the subsequent unleashing of Israeli attacks on Gaza.
All Pakistani passports include the inscription that the document is valid for travel to all countries around the world, except Israel
Two events often referred to as giving impetus to Pakistan’s possible recognition of Israel are the Pakistan-Saudi defence pact and the high-profile meeting in the Oval Office, including President Donald Trump, Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Chief of Army Staff General Asim Munir. Barring speculations that the Pak-Saudi pact or the Oval Office meeting between President Trump, Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif and the Chief of Army Staff contained a hidden agenda paving the way for Pakistan’s recognition of Israel, the reality is that the United States wants a follow-up of Abraham Accords I as Abraham Accords II, in which Saudi Arabia and other Muslim countries such as Pakistan and Indonesia will grant recognition to Israel. But the timing for including Pakistan in Abraham Accords II is wrong, particularly when Israel is engaged in genocide in Gaza, seeks to annex the West Bank and opposes an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital.
Pakistan’s official position on recognising Israel is very clear: it will not give any legitimacy to the Jewish state unless the Organisation of Islamic Countries grants recognition to Israel and an independent Palestinian state is established. But is it not a reality that out of 56 members of the OIC, several countries already possess diplomatic relations with Israel, including Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, the UAE and Bahrain?
Even if there is veiled American pressure on Pakistan to become part of Abraham II, the cat will be out of the bag, causing widespread domestic repercussions. From time to time, secret meetings between non-official and official Pakistanis and their Israeli counterparts have been held to mend fences and pave the way for Islamabad’s granting of diplomatic recognition to Tel Aviv. It is also argued by proponents of recognising Israel that Pakistan and Israel have no direct conflicts, and that it is in the interest of Islamabad to have normal relations with the Jewish state in the form of economic, technological and industrial cooperation.
In a write-up, “Pakistan’s shifting position on the plight of Palestinians and relations with Israel”, published by the Middle East Institute, Washington DC, by Syed Mohammad Ali on 4 September 2024, the writer stated: “It is ironic that Pakistan and Israel are both countries created in the name of religion, at around the same time (in 1947 and 1948, respectively), and yet they have no formal relations. All Pakistani passports include the inscription that the document is valid for travel to all countries around the world, except Israel.
While Pakistan’s animosity toward Israel is rooted in the displacement of Palestinians, it has also served as a means of burnishing the country’s credentials within the community of Muslim nations and pushing back against India, which maintains increasingly close ties with Israel.” He further maintains that, “Despite the pervasiveness of anti-Israel sentiment within Pakistan, there was again some momentum within Pakistan to normalise ties with Israel on the heels of the Abraham Accords in 2020, after the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain signed normalisation agreements with Israel.
As long as Benjamin Netanyahu’s regime continues and Israel pursues its policy of genocide in Gaza, there is no scope for Pakistan recognising the Jewish state
Amid speculation that Saudi Arabia would be next to establish ties with Israel, some Pakistani analysts also began arguing that it was high time for Pakistan to change its anti-Israel stance. Some of these proponents pointed to the purported economic benefits of recognising Israel, which could include technical cooperation to help boost agricultural yields, for instance. More realpolitik arguments in favour of establishing diplomatic ties have been motivated by the need to neutralise the growing security alliance between Israel and India, and to appease the United States and the UAE, especially following the latter’s normalisation with Israel in 2020.”
From any standpoint, sentimental and emotional feelings for Palestinians and against Israel form the basis of Pakistan’s position on the Jewish state. Pragmatism is, however, missing in Pak-Israel relations, whereas Islamabad refers to pursuing a principled policy of not granting diplomatic recognition to Israel. One wonders, if under Abraham Accords II Israel is recognised by Saudi Arabia and some other Arab and Muslim states, what will be Pakistan’s position? Will it, along with Iran, Yemen, Afghanistan and some other Muslim countries, continue to oppose Israel? Burning American, Israeli and Indian flags is common in Pakistan among those who point to the Indo-US-Israeli nexus aimed at depriving Pakistan of its nuclear arsenal.
If Israel is the only country with nuclear weapons in the Middle East, Pakistan has the distinction of being the only Muslim country possessing a nuclear arsenal. Reports about the Indo-Israeli nexus targeting Pakistani nuclear installations during the era of General Zia-ul-Haq reflected a deep-rooted understanding between New Delhi and Tel Aviv to deprive Pakistan of its nuclear arsenal. Even then, there was no cogent Israeli action against Pakistan comparable to its attacks against Iranian nuclear installations. Why is it that Israel has zero tolerance for the Iranian nuclear programme but has accepted Pakistan as a nuclear state despite knowing that the reach of Pakistani nuclear missiles also includes Israel?
The debate on Pakistan’s possible recognition of Israel needs to be analysed from three perspectives. First, as long as Benjamin Netanyahu’s regime continues and Israel pursues its policy of genocide in Gaza, there is no scope for Pakistan recognising the Jewish state. Furthermore, until Israel agrees to a two-state solution, as envisaged in the United Nations partition plan of 1947 and the Oslo Accords of September 1993, there is no way Pakistan can proceed with recognising Israel. Moreover, even Saudi Arabia, despite its tilt towards Israel under Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, cannot be expected to sign Abraham II with Israel.
The pro-Israeli lobby in Pakistan will certainly gain impetus if the Jewish state implements the Oslo Accords and supports a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital. The religious factor would remain an impediment to establishing normal relations between Pakistan and Israel, but it would lose its intensity in the post-Netanyahu era in which Israel and Palestine live side by side. This would require the marginalisation of Hamas and ultra-right-wing forces in Israel.
Second, there is an alternate view that, for Israel, Pakistan does not matter despite its strategic significance and nuclear arsenal. Its close strategic relationship with India is another compelling factor for those in Pakistan who favour recognising Israel, hoping that the Indo-Israeli nexus, which is hurtful to Pakistan, may be neutralised. The location of Pakistan matters for Israel because of its strategic position in South Asia, Central Asia, West Asia and the Middle East.
Finally, Israel is not panicked by the Pak-Saudi defence pact because Tel Aviv knows that it is directed neither against the Jewish state nor India. Israel is also confident that it can successfully deal with the Pakistani nuclear arsenal, but is certainly not in favour of the Iranian nuclear programme. In that case, there is no existing threat perception in Israel against Pakistan’s military because it is India-centric, unless there is a regime in Islamabad which considers using nuclear weapons against the Jewish state. Hence, one needs to keep fingers crossed about Pakistan granting recognition to Israel.