In the last almost fifty years of the revolutionary regime in Iran, the country has never faced such a great threat to its survival. Eight years of war with Iraq (1980–88), internal revolts against the revolution of February 1979, and sustained sanctions imposed by the United States and the West failed to destabilise Iran.
But the U.S.–Israeli attack launched against Iran on February 28 this year reflects a great moment of truth for Tehran because of the massive destruction caused by aerial and naval attacks. Yet, despite the assassination of Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, by a coordinated U.S.–Israel attack and constant bombing of its military and civilian targets, the revolutionary regime has survived.
The implications of war in the Gulf are lethal. The surge in the prices of oil and the disruption of supply chains because of the partial closing of the Strait of Hormuz, as well as Tehran’s attacks on Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain and the U.A.E., reflect the escalation of war beyond the United States and Israel. Pakistan, a neighbour of Iran, is also vulnerable to the strategic, political and economic fallout of that war.
The Pak–Saudi defence pact has been invoked, but Islamabad must understand the fact that any attack on Iran will cause a domino effect on Pakistan because of domestic repercussions. It is not only the 20 per cent Shia population of Pakistan which will retaliate against any attack on Iran under the cover of the defence pact with Saudi Arabia, but the vast majority of people of this country will go to any extent in opposing an attack on Iran.
Iran’s massive stockpile of ballistic missiles and drones has so far sustained Tehran’s attacks on U.S. bases and Israel, but how long Iran will be able to cope with the colossal firepower of the United States and Israel is yet to be seen. The Iranian president has apologised to Gulf countries for attacks on their territories, but he has made it clear that his country will not remain silent if attacks from American bases are carried out against Iran. If Arab Gulf countries decide to retaliate against Iran, in that case, Tehran will not only be isolated regionally, but the U.S. and Israel will get an impetus to carry out their attacks against Iran.
What matters in analysing the current scenario of the U.S.–Israeli attack on Iran is the role of Russia and China. The two major powers understand the fact that the crippling of Iran in the form of regime change and surrender to U.S.–Israeli dictates will badly hurt their interests in the Middle East. For that purpose, reportedly, China and Russia are now in the process of providing military support to Iran so that Tehran has enough firepower and capability to withstand U.S.–Israeli attacks.
If the Gulf war continues for a few more weeks, not only will the global economy collapse, but the intervention of China and Russia cannot be ruled out
It is another debate why, despite the holding of Iran–U.S. nuclear talks in Geneva, Washington came under the influence of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to attack Iran. But the trap hatched by Israel to plunge the United States into war with Iran cannot be undermined. What is essential to understand is why the United States failed to recognise the lethal implications of attacking Iran. Unlike the 12-day June 2025 war with Iran, this time, both Israel and the United States have gone too far.
Tehran argues that by targeting political and military leadership, both America and Israel have crossed the red line. Israel and the U.S. have threatened to target the successor of Ali Khamenei and to continue their attacks unless Iran surrenders and a new regime of their choice takes control.
For how long the people of Iran can withstand the Israeli–U.S. attack is yet to be seen because, before February 28, the popularity of the Iranian regime was at its lowest. Large-scale demonstrations against Khamenei and his regime led to the brutal use of force by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards, killing thousands of protesters.
Those who launched massive demonstrations against the Iranian government see the present attack as an opportunity to rise against the clergy-led government. But in the past, the regime survived despite sanctions and attacks and crushed popular uprisings. This time, the regime, despite its fragility, intends to use patriotism as a weapon to survive.
Iran’s great moment of truth needs to be examined from three angles. First, unlike the June war, the present hostilities are not limited to America and Israel but all the Gulf states have turned against Tehran. Attacking civilian sites in Gulf states tends to augment anger against Iran. Merely apologising to Gulf states for attacks conducted by Iran will not dilute anti-Iranian sentiments among Arab states.
Iran’s fragility in the region is reflected in the loss of Syria as its ally, Israel’s blow to Hezbollah, the mitigation of Hamas, and the failure of the Houthis to exert pressure on the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia. Such a situation has augmented the vulnerability of Iran vis-à-vis its adversaries.
Second, for Pakistan, Iran’s war with Israel and the United States is like a devil-and-the-deep-blue-sea situation. The surge of popular sentiments in favour of Iran tends to question Islamabad’s ability to remain neutral. Perceptions that once Iran surrenders, the next turn will be Pakistan tend to gain traction because Israel has made it clear that, more than the Iranian nuclear programme, the threat is real from Pakistan.
Pro-American elites in Pakistan must be careful while interpreting the Pak–Saudi defence pact as a justification against Iran. The United States also knows the fact that the economic vulnerability of Pakistan and its heavy dependence on the International Monetary Fund and other multilateral aid-giving agencies tend to compromise the sovereignty of the country.
Some circles in Pakistan suggest that this is the opportunity of the century to use its nuclear arsenal and long-range missiles against Israel. But is the regime in Islamabad courageous enough to take on Israel because of the fear that if Iran surrenders, the next target of Israel will be Pakistan? And because of the heavy influence of Israel over the United States, it will be futile to expect America to intervene and stop Israel from targeting Pakistan.
Finally, the vacuum in the international order is heavily reflected in the failure of the United Nations to act now. It is not only the United Nations which has exposed its fragility; other international organisations, particularly the European Union, are also unable to deal with the deadly threats faced by the world. If the Gulf war continues for a few more weeks, not only will the global economy collapse, but the intervention of China and Russia cannot be ruled out.
As the only nuclear state in the Muslim world and the world’s fifth-largest country in terms of demography, the onus is on Islamabad to play its cards well instead of putting all its eggs in one basket. So far those who govern Pakistan have not acted in a prudent manner. By enhancing the price of petrol by 55 rupees per litre and giving indications to the United States and Saudi Arabia of siding against Iran, one can expect a surge of domestic crisis.
If Iran can survive almost 50 years of sanctions and foreign attacks and remain resilient in its current war with Israel and the United States, why cannot Pakistan pursue a courageous approach? Certainly, the pro-Israeli stance of the Modi regime, reinforced after he visited Israel a few days before the outbreak of war in the Gulf, does not mean that Pakistan should adopt a pro-American and pro-Saudi approach. What matters for Pakistan is upholding its sovereignty and dealing with economic and political challenges in a prudent manner.