Sudan is currently facing what the UN describes as the world’s largest humanitarian crisis. According to the BBC and the UN, 150,000 people have been killed, and 12.4 million people have been displaced. More than 26 million people, half of the Sudanese population, are facing acute hunger.
Since civil war erupted in April 2023, Sudan has been torn apart by internal political rivalry, external powers, and a struggle over gold. How did it reach this point?
Sudan’s current predicament is the culmination of decades of political turmoil and economic mismanagement. Since its inception in 1956, its history has been marred by military rule, coups, civil war, and financial mismanagement. Its longest authoritarian regime, led by Umar Hassan Al-Bashir for three decades, ended in 2019. His rule was marked by rising inequality and pervasive corruption. The dire economic situation was exacerbated when South Sudan gained independence in 2011, and Sudan lost 75% of its oil reserves. Oil production fell drastically, from nearly 500,000 barrels per day in 2010 to a mere 140,000 barrels per day in 2012. Decades of misrule and policy failures sparked nationwide protests, setting the stage for the ouster of Al-Bashir.
The protests were co-opted by two military leaders, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, better known as ‘Hemedti,’ of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). After ousting Al-Bashir from power, the military succumbed to public pressure and agreed to a military-civilian transitional government, leading to elections under an August Agreement in 2019. But the two leaders consolidated power by making Al-Burhan head of the council and Hemedti Vice-Chair, giving them significant leverage over Sudan’s armed forces and resources.
Analysts conclude that the policies of the UAE and its allies further sidelined the civilian transition, including a $3 billion bailout that strengthened military actors and contributed directly to the 2021 coup. Anwar Gargash, the UAE’s senior diplomatic envoy, has since called it a “critical mistake.” Soon after, a power struggle flared up between the two most powerful people in Sudan, rooted in RSF’s resistance to its integration into the SAF, “understanding it (RSF) would lose its power,” according to Middle East Council analyst Adel Abdel Ghaffar.
On 15 April 2023, clashes between SAF and RSF erupted into a full-scale civil war. RSF, strengthened over the past decade through political patronage, foreign support, and control of some gold mines, stormed Khartoum and besieged the presidential palace. Only earlier this year, in March, was SAF able to reclaim the city, but the RSF swiftly countered, capturing areas adjoining Libya and Egypt in May. The battered city of Khartoum was reduced to ruins by the time RSF left. El-Fasher, which was the last urban centre held by the army in Darfur, also fell to the RSF at the end of October.
Amnesty International has called the international response “woefully inadequate,” as Sudanese civilians remain trapped in a conflict they did not choose
The war has also reignited old ethnic tensions in Darfur. The RSF, with its roots in the Janjaweed militias, is alleged to be conducting ethnic cleansing to transform the region into an Arab-dominated area. Satellite analysis by Yale’s Humanitarian Research Lab confirms mass killing of civilians, with 1,500 people killed in the first three days, according to Sudan’s Doctors Network. UNICEF, in March 2025, documented rampant sexual violence, including against children as young as one. In January of this year, the US formally concluded that RSF and its allies had committed genocide, imposing sanctions on Gen Dagalo, and subsequently against Gen Burhan. This conflict, however, does not exist in isolation.
Foreign involvement and the gold market have only exacerbated the conflict. Across Sudan, weak regulation of industrial-scale gold mining created a huge vacuum that allowed illicit networks to exploit it. Research Analyst Yvan Schulz of Swissaid shows a 400-ton discrepancy of gold between what African countries claim they export to the UAE and what the UAE reports it importing. According to Schulz, that is a clear sign of gold smuggling. In 2022, the UAE imported 39 tons of gold directly from Sudan, valued at $2 billion. However, according to UN trade data, around 60 tons of gold reached the UAE the same year. Data from Sudan’s Central Bank in 2023 indicates that nearly all gold exported from Sudan was headed for the UAE.
In late March 2024, Sudan’s permanent representative to the UN accused the UAE of providing military support to the RSF. Amnesty International’s report states that despite the UNSC embargo, which has been in place for two decades, military equipment from Russia, the UAE, and Turkey is being imported into Sudan and then diverted to Darfur. US intelligence agencies confirmed this, showing that the UAE had increased its supplies of weapons to the Sudanese militia. These shipments further fuelled the conflict. The Sudanese government even filed a case against the UAE in the International Court of Justice.
However, the ICJ refused, stating that it had no jurisdiction over it. The UAE categorically denies any sort of involvement in the conflict, claiming its primary concern is humanitarian aid.
The SAF, on the other hand, has enjoyed longstanding relations with Egypt’s military, and evidence indicates that it has received military support from Iran and Turkey.
Foreign interventions have solidified the authority of both the RSF and SAF, perpetuating a conflict in which Sudanese citizens suffer from hunger, displacement, and daily violence. The nation has become a battleground for geopolitical manoeuvring and economic agendas, with civilians bearing the full cost. Sudan’s finance minister stated that last year the country lost 80% of its revenues due to the ongoing conflict. Several rounds of peace talks in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain have produced no meaningful progress. While the RSF has agreed to a humanitarian truce proposed by the USA, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, the SAF remains wary, citing past ceasefire violations. Amnesty International has called the international response “woefully inadequate,” as Sudanese civilians remain trapped in a conflict they did not choose.