No doubt, Pakistan had an edge over India in the recent military conflict, causing more damage to the aggressor in terms of strategic assets. Pakistan reaffirmed not only its strategic deterrence—breaking the myth of Indian conventional military superiority—but also stripped India of its perceived diplomatic clout at the global level. The Indian narrative accusing Pakistan of terrorism in Pahalgam did not elicit a favourable response from any major country in Europe, the Middle East, or Greater Asia, including the US, UK, Russia, and France, thereby rendering its military posturing a brazen act of provocation, aggression, and a threat to regional and global security.
However, Indian leaders have failed to accept reality, continuing to display a defiant and angry attitude. The post-ceasefire statements by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Minister for External Affairs, S. Jaishankar, contradicted ground realities as reported by international media. These statements clearly aimed at damage control and cooling off the public frenzy they had so foolishly unleashed through war hysteria and jingoism. While claiming victory in the recent military confrontation, they continued threatening Pakistan with a so-called “new normal”, accusing it of involvement in the terrorist attack and acting as prosecutor, judge, and executioner. They also threatened to hinder the flow of rivers into Pakistan, turning it into a desert or forcing it to accept changes to the Indus Waters Treaty on their terms.
So far, India has taken no steps to inspire confidence in its sincerity regarding peace and good neighbourliness. Instead, it has dispatched politically broad-based and representative delegations to various regions to promote its distorted narrative that Pakistan sponsors terrorism and uses non-state actors to achieve foreign policy objectives, with its nuclear assets supposedly under irresponsible command and control. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent outrageous remarks in Gujarat were both disgusting and demonstrative of the extent of rage and frustration he is suffering.
Narendra Modi is likely collaborating closely with his Generals to explore the possibility of creating strategic disequilibrium in the region by imposing a quick and debilitating military setback on Pakistan
The anger and anguish among Indian leaders over military humiliation and the loss of face with their own people will keep the war cauldron simmering. Modi was aiming to strengthen the BJP’s position in the upcoming legislative elections in several Union States, including Bihar, by creating war hysteria and humiliating Pakistan. However, the situation took an unpredictable turn, sabotaging his plan and instead torpedoing the party’s chances of any electoral victory. Thus, it is understandable that he has gone on the offensive, trying to dispel the negative impressions left by the 7–10 May military conflict—impressions which have painted him as an unwise, irresponsible, and hubristic leader. He is destroying the secular credentials of India and damaging its international image, despite its clout in the G20, BRICS, SCO, and QUAD.
It is simply indigestible for Indians to witness that their country—with a defence budget of $80 billion and massive annual military spending—could not maintain its conventional military superiority over a country with a paltry defence budget of under $8 billion. They must be weighing the possibility of settling scores with Pakistan.
In the face of Indian rage and frustration, Pakistan’s civilian and military leadership seems to have succumbed to the irresistible temptation of triumphalism and a false sense of strategic invincibility, diverting their attention and energy to trivialities rather than focusing on war preparedness.
We would be naïve to believe that Mr Narendra Modi, given the level of narcissism he suffers from, will sit quietly licking his wounds. He is undoubtedly planning a second move against Pakistan—one that will be swifter, sterner, more damaging, and more dangerous. He appears to be taking a page from the playbook of the late Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, sending delegations to secure international empathy, turning world opinion against Pakistan, and highlighting alleged persecution in the eastern wing. This time, India is using an even more lethal weapon: the accusation of terrorism, which is anathema to the West. Many European countries have suffered from terrorism and militant attacks and are particularly sensitive to the issue.
Regrettably, we are in a weak position to defend ourselves in light of recent domestic political developments. The allegations of terrorism, combined with perceived human rights violations in FATA, Balochistan, and Sindh, and the imprisonment of a large number of political activists from Tehreek-e-Insaf—including its founding chairman and senior leaders, known internationally—will make it easier for India to play the victimhood card and malign Pakistan. They will portray Pakistan as a state that sponsors terrorism, employs non-state actors to pursue foreign policy objectives, and crushes political dissent at home using the coercive power of the state.
While Indian delegates are busy maligning Pakistan abroad, Narendra Modi is likely collaborating closely with his Generals to explore the possibility of creating strategic disequilibrium in the region by imposing a quick and debilitating military setback on Pakistan.
We, too, have reacted by dispatching delegations to the West, and our Prime Minister has embarked on a four-country tour visiting the UAE, Iran, Azerbaijan, and Turkiye. A few well-known foreign policy experts have joined the delegation. I am confident they will present Pakistan’s position intelligently and logically to their interlocutors in each capital. However, I foresee some difficulty in defending the imprisonment of political opponents and the human rights situation in Balochistan and Sindh.
Though it would be difficult for India to hinder the flow of western rivers including the Jhelum and Indus due to lack of infrastructure, it can act maliciously with the waters of the Chenab through hydroelectric dams. According to the treaty terms, India cannot retain river water in dams for more than 24 hours for hydro-generation. Any attempt to obstruct the river flow would risk flooding its own surrounding regions, a risk India is unlikely to take.