A careful reading of the Pakistan Economic Survey 2025–26 reveals a striking paradox. While the government celebrates the continued expansion of universities, the same official document quietly records a decline in primary and middle schools, fewer teachers at the primary level, and persistent deficiencies in basic school facilities. These trends raise an important question: are Pakistan's educational priorities becoming increasingly detached from the foundations on which every successful education system is built?
The Pakistan Economic Survey 2025–26 reveals the government's priorities and its vision for the future. According to the Survey, Pakistan now has 278 universities, comprising 163 public and 115 private institutions. At the time of independence in 1947, the country had only two universities. Judged in isolation, this represents an impressive expansion of higher education. But viewed alongside another set of figures from the same Survey, the story takes a very different turn.
The number of primary and middle schools in Pakistan has been steadily declining. Primary schools fell from 168,241 in 2022–23 to 158,713 in 2023–24 and are estimated at 154,964 in 2024–25. Middle schools followed the same trend, declining from 51,033 to 44,426, with a further reduction to an estimated 43,931 over the same period. In just two years, Pakistan lost more than 13,000 primary schools and over 7,000 middle schools, even as the number of universities continued to grow.
The Survey offers no explanation for these declines. Were schools merged with neighbouring institutions? Were primary schools upgraded to middle schools and middle schools upgraded to secondary schools? Were schools closed because of declining enrolment, or were they simply removed from official records? Any of these could represent legitimate policy decisions. The concern is not the possibility of administrative restructuring but the absence of any explanation in the government's principal annual review of the education sector. Without such clarification, readers cannot determine whether the decline reflects reclassification or a genuine contraction of the school system.
The numbers become even more troubling when read together. While the number of primary schools declined, enrolment increased from 24.6 million in 2022–23 to an estimated 25.7 million in 2024–25. At the same time, the number of primary teachers fell from 506,019 to 431,492. The inevitable consequence is larger classes and heavier workloads for teachers. The Survey does not explicitly discuss these implications, but the data leave little room for alternative interpretation.
The picture becomes still more worrying when attention shifts from the number of schools to their condition. Across Pakistan, only 65 percent of public schools have electricity, while in Balochistan the figure falls to 21 percent. Drinking water is available in 76 percent of schools nationally but in only 29 percent of schools in Balochistan. Thousands of schools also continue to lack toilets and boundary walls. These are not minor shortcomings. They determine whether children learn in environments that are safe, healthy and conducive to learning. A country still struggling to provide such basic facilities to existing schools appears to have chosen an unusual moment to prioritise the expansion of universities over strengthening the foundations of school education.
When investment and policy attention increasingly favour higher education while the foundations continue to weaken, the entire educational structure becomes vulnerable.
None of this suggests that expanding higher education is a mistake. Pakistan is a young country with growing demand for university education. More universities are both necessary and desirable. The real issue is balance. Universities cannot flourish in isolation from the school system that supplies their students. When investment and policy attention increasingly favour higher education while the foundations continue to weaken, the entire educational structure becomes vulnerable.
The rapid growth of universities has been particularly evident since the establishment of the Higher Education Commission in 2002. Over the past two decades, Pakistan has witnessed an unprecedented increase in the number of universities, especially in the private sector. Yet expansion alone cannot be taken as evidence of educational progress. More important questions concern educational quality, graduate employability, research productivity, faculty strength and institutional governance. On these issues, the Economic Survey remains largely silent.
University chartering itself has also generated considerable debate. Under the prescribed procedure, proposals for new universities are expected to undergo rigorous scrutiny, including feasibility studies, assessment of academic capacity and review by the relevant authorities before legislation is enacted. In practice, however, media reports have repeatedly questioned whether these safeguards are always observed. Concerns have been raised about institutions receiving charters despite inadequate infrastructure, insufficient faculty or limited academic planning. Such cases suggest that political considerations may sometimes outweigh academic ones in decisions affecting higher education.
The geographical pattern of university expansion raises further questions. Most newly chartered universities have been concentrated in Punjab, Sindh and the federal capital, while provinces facing the greatest educational deprivation, particularly Balochistan and parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, have seen comparatively limited growth. Ironically, these are the very regions where literacy rates remain the lowest and access to quality schooling continues to lag behind the national average. If educational planning were driven primarily by need, greater public investment would be expected where educational disadvantage is most severe.
Pakistan's broader educational indicators reinforce this concern. According to the Economic Survey, expected years of schooling remain only 7.9 years, while mean years of schooling stand at 4.3 years, among the lowest in South Asia. Although literacy has improved to 63 percent, substantial provincial, gender and rural-urban disparities persist. These figures suggest that Pakistan's educational challenge extends far beyond expanding access to higher education. It lies equally in strengthening the school system on which the entire education sector ultimately depends.
Supporters of university expansion may argue that some of the decline in primary and middle schools simply reflects the upgrading of institutions to higher levels. That is entirely possible. Indeed, the Survey shows that the number of secondary and higher secondary schools has increased during the same period. Yet this makes the absence of any official explanation even more puzzling. If thousands of schools have been upgraded rather than closed, the Survey should say so. Transparent public reporting requires more than publishing statistics; it requires explaining the changes behind them. In its present form, the data leave readers to speculate about developments that should have been clearly documented.
The broader issue, therefore, is not whether Pakistan should build more universities. It certainly should. The real question is whether higher education has begun to overshadow the country's far more pressing challenge of strengthening foundational education. No education system can produce outstanding universities if its schools remain weak. Universities admit students; schools produce them.
This imbalance is reflected not only in infrastructure but also in educational quality. A growing number of universities means little if many students arrive underprepared because they have progressed through overcrowded classrooms, under-resourced schools and an education system struggling to provide even the most basic facilities. Expanding higher education while neglecting foundational schooling risks creating a system that produces more degrees without necessarily producing better learning.
Pakistan therefore needs a more balanced educational strategy. Decisions about establishing new universities should be guided by transparent feasibility studies, regional needs and rigorous academic standards rather than political expediency. At the same time, greater priority must be given to protecting and expanding primary and middle schools, recruiting qualified teachers, improving school infrastructure and ensuring that every child has access to a safe and supportive learning environment.
To its credit, the Pakistan Economic Survey places these statistics in the public domain. But publishing data is only the first step. Equally important is explaining what those numbers reveal about national priorities. When official records show thousands of primary and middle schools disappearing without explanation while celebrating the continuing multiplication of universities, they inevitably raise difficult questions about the direction of educational policy.
Universities are indispensable to national development, but they cannot substitute for a strong school system. Countries build world-class universities on the foundations of world-class schools, not the other way around. When official statistics record the disappearance of thousands of primary and middle schools while celebrating the rapid expansion of universities, they raise an uncomfortable but unavoidable question: has Pakistan begun to mistake educational expansion for educational development?