In a time of crippling economic despair, when Pakistan’s financial arteries grow tighter by the day, the state has extended a desperate but hopeful hand to the world. Through the formation of the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC)—a rare alliance of civilian institutions, military command, and provincial administrations—Pakistan has sought to cut through the suffocating web of bureaucracy that has long strangled development. It is a commendable effort, driven by the conviction that this country still possesses resources worth fighting for. At the heart of this strategy stands Field Marshal Asim Munir, who has placed his weight behind this bold attempt to unlock Pakistan’s mineral wealth and redirect the nation’s destiny.
Among the jewels now being offered to global investors is the Reko Diq copper and gold project in Balochistan—a symbol of national pride, revival, and long-denied economic sovereignty. U.S. companies have been encouraged to engage in public-private partnerships under promises of legal and fiscal facilitation. The vision is noble, and the intent appears sincere. And yet, behind this carefully arranged table of opportunity lies an untouched feast—a resource so colossal in scale, so transformational in its promise, that its absence from the national energy discourse is not merely a policy failure; it is a national tragedy.
That buried, forgotten miracle is shale gas and oil—Pakistan’s silent salvation, ignored in policy and forsaken in practice. As far back as 2013, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that Pakistan possessed an estimated 105 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of recoverable shale gas and over 9 billion barrels of shale oil. A year later, in 2014, a detailed report titled “Shale Oil and Gas: Lifeline for Pakistan”, authored by AHA, was released. Dr Ikram ul Haq wrote hundreds of papers and research reports on the energy economy by constantly advocating loudly to the government that energy is the engine of economic growth.
In 2014, a comprehensive report titled “Shale Oil and Gas: Lifeline for Pakistan” was published, authored by AHA. Dr Ikram ul Haq has made significant contributions to the field of energy economics, having authored numerous papers and research reports. Dr Ikram ul Haq consistently emphasised to the government that energy is a fundamental driver of economic growth. Later, that hope was quickly substantiated by USAID, which expanded the projections: Pakistan, it stated, could be sitting on as much as 10,000 TCF of shale gas and 2.3 trillion barrels of shale oil. These figures are not speculative exaggerations—they represent technical, validated potential. And yet, that potential lies dormant.
Pakistan will continue to beg for loans while sitting atop a treasure it never bothered to claim
The world offers us a mirror. The United States, once heavily dependent on oil imports, leveraged the shale revolution to become the world's largest producer of energy. In 2024 alone, the U.S. produced 81.2 billion cubic feet of shale gas per day, while Pakistan’s entire national demand barely touches 7 BCF per day. Shale changed America’s economic trajectory, weakened OPEC’s monopoly, and redrew the geopolitical energy map. What shale did for the United States, it could do—perhaps even more impactfully—for Pakistan.
Even if we accept the most conservative EIA estimate of 105 TCF, the market value of this hidden resource crosses $1.575 trillion. That is enough to wipe away debt, power industries, and fuel households, and give Pakistan a genuine chance at energy independence. But instead of leaping, we turned our backs.
History records the heartbreak. In 2013, as interest in shale gas started to build, an Italian firm reportedly offered to supply shale gas to Pakistan at $9 per MMBtu. Rather than considering this window into a future of domestic shale development, the Ministry of Petroleum instead locked Pakistan into a long-term LNG agreement tied to oil prices with a Middle Eastern state. That single decision—with its short-term mindset and geopolitically narrow vision—plunged the gas sector into chaos. The circular debt, once manageable, has now swollen to $13 billion, and domestic exploration has been replaced with costly imports. LNG became the crown jewel of national energy planning, and shale—a lifeline in waiting—was left to gather dust in forgotten files.
While Pakistan hesitated, India surged forward. In 2013, it introduced its first shale gas policy. By 2016, it had implemented a unified licensing system, allowing firms to explore conventional and unconventional hydrocarbons under one regulatory umbrella. Meanwhile, Pakistan—blessed with more favourable geology and proven formations—remains paralysed. Twelve years have passed, and still, no formal shale gas policy exists for international players to consider.
In 2018, after the political tide shifted and LNG’s strongest defenders exited the stage, AHA authored a comprehensive roadmap titled HELP (Hydrocarbon Exploration and Licensing Policy), endorsed by leading national and international experts. The report outlined a pathway to energy security, offered reforms to end the $22 billion annual import bill, and detailed incentives to attract foreign investment. It aimed not only to streamline policy but to awaken the dormant giant beneath our soil. Seven years later, that policy still sits unpublished, unread—its vision intact, but its impact denied.
Tragically, this is not just the story of bureaucratic slumber. It is a story of obstruction, sabotage, and personal gain. In 2020, a senior official from the national oil and gas company was appointed to lead Pakistan’s shale development effort. With a handsome compensation and $30 million at his disposal, expectations were high. But to this day, not a single molecule of shale gas has been extracted. The official now claims production will begin in 2029—a timeline that stretches belief. Rather than opening the door to U.S. collaboration—the nation that invented shale extraction and perfected technologies like fracking and horizontal drilling—he hijacked the programme, ensuring Pakistan remained isolated. This same individual has likely been the one resisting SIFC's attempts to engage with the United States on shale, preventing what could have been a transformative partnership.
If Pakistan had an active economic crimes unit, this case would be the very definition of strategic malpractice. Meanwhile, one of us, AHA, was invited by U.S. experts to the Marcellus Shale Basin in Pennsylvania for advanced training. There, it was confirmed that Pakistan’s shale geology mirrors the most productive U.S. basins. Burial depths are similar, or in some cases even more favourable. Quartz content in Pakistani formations ranges between 40–50%, aligning with North American shale. Formations like Hangu and Sembar exhibit total organic carbon (TOC) values nearing 10%—a figure comparable to elite U.S. plays like New Albany and Duvernay. Patala shale, with 5–10% TOC, is similar to Fayetteville and Eagle Ford. Even the data speaks: the potential is real, the conditions are right.
And yet, what is the value of knowledge when the system refuses to act? What is the worth of training, research, and validation if the bureaucracy remains frozen? While American energy experts publicly acknowledge that Pakistan is sitting on a gold mine, the policy remains in a drawer, waiting to be remembered by a government with courage.
We call on Field Marshal Asim Munir to take this into his own hands. Just as the United States helped Pakistan discover the Sui Gas Field and other fields from 1952 to 1988, it can once again partner with Pakistan to unlock shale oil and gas. This time, the partnership could last 100 years. With advancements in digital drilling, U.S. experts can operate remotely, managing horizontal and vertical fracking from American soil while jobs, revenue, and gas are delivered in Pakistan. This initiative alone could create over 3 million high-quality jobs—far more than conventional energy ever could.
If we fail to act again, this potential will remain buried—not for a decade or a generation, but for a billion years. Pakistan will continue to beg for loans while sitting atop a treasure it never bothered to claim. This is not just a policy gap. It is a national mourning. It is a slow, agonising surrender of what could have been salvation. Let us not be remembered as the generation that let salvation die beneath its feet. Let us instead rise—with conviction, with clarity, and with courage—to unlock the shale and rewrite Pakistan’s destiny.