• About Us
  • The TFT Story
  • Team
  • Write for TFT
  • Online advertisement tariff
  • Donate To Us
The Friday Times - Naya Daur
Monday, January 30, 2023
  • Home
  • Editorials
  • News
  • Analysis
  • Features
  • Spotlight
  • Videos
  • Citizens’ Voice
  • Lifestyle
  • Editor’s Picks
  • Good Times
  • More
    • About Us
    • Team
    • Write for TFT
    • The TFT Story
    • Donate To Us
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Editorials
  • News
  • Analysis
  • Features
  • Spotlight
  • Videos
  • Citizens’ Voice
  • Lifestyle
  • Editor’s Picks
  • Good Times
  • More
    • About Us
    • Team
    • Write for TFT
    • The TFT Story
    • Donate To Us
No Result
View All Result
The Friday Times - Naya Daur
No Result
View All Result
Home SPOTLIGHT

Pakistan’s 2022: A Polarised Polity On The Brink Of Economic Default

Pakistan's permacrisis has only deepened through 2022. Raza Rumi on what 2023 holds for the nuclear armed crisis state.

Raza Rumi by Raza Rumi
December 30, 2022
in SPOTLIGHT, Year-Ender, Raza Rumi's Editorial, Editorials, Analysis, Main Slider
Pakistan’s 2022: A Polarised Polity On The Brink Of Economic Default
1.9k
SHARES
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

As the year 2022 ends, Pakistan’s deepening crisis of governance appears to be intractable. For all practical purposes Pakistan has defaulted without a formal announcement. The foreign exchange reserves have fallen to a historic low of $6 billion, with no sign of an immediate tranche release from the International Monetary Fund. The situation might get even worse. With complete elite capture of the economy, shoddy management over the years and static exports, things are not going to change in the short to medium term. This is a perennial crisis fueled by manufactured political instability largely due to the desperate attempt by the military establishment to retain control over national affairs.

While a murky era that ran from 2016 to 2022 seems to be ending, the unbridled ambitions of senior military bureaucrats were laid bare during the year. As if these crises were not enough, the year 2022 also witnessed a return of terrorism – a direct offshoot of a failed Afghanistan policy that requires urgent recalibration. The colossal cost of political engineering is such that 2023 will be spent rectifying flawed ‘interventions.’

The colossal cost of political engineering is such that 2023 will be spent rectifying flawed ‘interventions.’

2022 started off with the widely recognized split between former prime minister Imran Khan and the military junta (save a few generals who had different plans for Mr. Khan). The opposition, sensing this fallout, jumped at the opportunity of dislodging Khan and his party Pakistan Tehreek-E-Insaaf (PTI) from power. The intense political bickering and machinations led to Khan’s final ouster on April 10. However, in the process the Constitution was trampled, parliamentary norms were thrown to the wind and Khan, in a Trumpian manner, resisted his exit from PM house till the very last.

Pundits had assumed that due to his disastrous record in office for nearly four years, this regime change would be a smooth, typical affair. They were in for a great surprise as Imran Khan, aided by sections of the deep state, private media, a handful of business tycoons and a large urban middle class pushed back against the new government – a coalition of 16 parties – led by Shehbaz Sharif. More significantly, this new constellation of social forces challenged the former military chief General Bajwa and his associates like never before. For months, the army chief was labeled by PTI social media troll farms as a ‘traitor’ and a disingenuous foreign conspiracy narrative was repeated ad nauseum that it acquired a reality of its own. This massive propaganda onslaught entailed relentless political messaging by Imran Khan through more than a hundred speeches and more than 60 rallies across the country. In the absence of Nawaz Sharif or such like popular figure, Imran Khan was, and is, the only game in town.

For months, the army chief was labeled by PTI social media troll farms as a ‘traitor’ and a disingenuous foreign conspiracy narrative was repeated ad nauseum that it acquired a reality of its own. This massive propaganda onslaught entailed relentless political messaging by Imran Khan through more than a hundred speeches and more than 60 rallies across the country.

The high pitched, agitational persona of Imran Khan received covert support from senior figures within the military establishment as well as within the judiciary, and much of the media industry. Observers were quick to note that in the 34 years post-Zia, ‘ousted’ prime ministers were never given a free pass as Khan received. By the middle of the year, it was clear that this political battle was neither about an early election nor was it a cry for ‘real independence’ from the West. It was a populist expression for intra establishment contest over the appointment of a new army chief due by the end of November 2022. By September, Khan spilled the beans and demanded that the appointment of Army Chief was his prerogative. There is no law that allows the opposition leader to have a say in this decision-making process, but Khan and his charged middle-class supporters thought otherwise.

The fledgling PDM government did not budge. It patiently waited for November to arrive when they could play their trump card through the appointment of new army chief. On November 27, PM Shehbaz successfully managed to appoint a chief who was not a candidate of Imran Khan and his benefactors within the system. A fresh beginning was heralded with the installation of a relatively apolitical army chief calling the shots, who, in recent days is reportedly taking steps to put his own house in order.

Given Pakistan’s chaotic history, no one is willing to believe that the army has withdrawn from political affairs but the institution surely has learnt its lesson: betting on an erratic horse is not the wisest of strategies. The tactical retreat from the political arena is likely to continue during 2023. However, this phase is going to be short-lived given the intense polarization and the inability of the civilian sphere as a coherent power centre governed by some basic rules of the game.

Speculation is rife about the appointment of the long-term caretaker government comprised of the technocrats to steer the country out of the economic crisis. This is not likely to work.

The greatest hit through this fiasco was taken by the military establishment, as it lost some of its prestige and insular status in the society. Imran Khan was successful in creating a wedge between historic bedfellows – the middle class and the establishment by playing up divisions, both real and imagined. Rumors of factionalism gained currency with intense social media [dis]information and the resignation of two generals after the appointment of new chief gave traction to such speculation. The brutal murder of TV anchor Arshad Sharif in Kenya, the attack on Imran Khan and cases against PTI leaning journalists and activists wrought further anti-establishment sentiment. This is a challenge that the new army chief will have to contend with.

Speculation is rife about the appointment of the long-term caretaker government comprised of the technocrats to steer the country out of the economic crisis. This is not likely to work. Technocrats will lack legitimacy and could potentially face the combined wrath of all political forces. Such an experiment will also tilt the scales completely in the favor of military which would ultimately become untenable for both Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan.

During 2022, the country finally woke up to the specter of the climate crisis with the worst natural disaster to hit the country in over two decades, displacing more than 33 million people and causing over $30 billion in damage. Perhaps the best news of the year was Pakistan’s valiant and effective advocacy, led by Minister Sherry Rehman, for the setting up a global ‘Loss and Damage fund’ – a concrete step towards the attainment of the climate justice. The monsoon season of 2022 revealed the sheer lack of disaster preparedness and lack of priority given to climate adaptation. The callousness of Pakistan’s ruling classes towards its poor came through as a rude reminder that a country with a substantive nuclear arsenal was straddling broken systems of planning, no local governments or safety nets for the poor. It is a surprise that the brewing public anger has not turned yet into a mass uprising. The political elites couldn’t care less about the disaster. As the country drowned, Imran Khan kept on rallying across the country for an army chief of his choice.

Pakistan in 2023 is going to need visionary leadership, a functional parliament, structural policy reforms and sacrifice by its elites to tackle the interrelated political, economic and security imbroglio.

The prospects for 2023 are even bleaker. With the Pakistani Taliban and their affiliates, and the Baloch separatists mounting attacks, the state is left embroiled in a quagmire. State power, legitimacy and resources are going to be under immense duress in the coming year. Pakistan in 2023 is going to need visionary leadership, a functional parliament, structural policy reforms and some degree of sacrifice by its elites to tackle the interrelated political, economic and security imbroglio.

Sadly, none of these requirements for stability are on the horizon. This is the ultimate dilemma and tragedy that Pakistanis will have to contend with in 2023.

Also Read:

Ishaq Dar’s Exchange Rate Policy: Ignorance And Hubris

Registered, Not Represented: The Fate Of Pakistan’s Non-Muslim Voters

Tags: Pakistan in 2022civil militarypakistan economic crisis2023Pakistan politics2022
Previous Post

Imran ‘Fears’ Technocrat Govt, Doesn’t See Elections ‘Anytime Soon’

Next Post

Gwadar Protests Continue Despite Arrests

Raza Rumi

Raza Rumi

The author is Editor, The Friday Times and founder of Naya Daur Media. Earlier, he was editor, Daily Times and a broadcaster with Express News and Capital TV. His writings are archived at www.razarumi.com

Next Post
The Fashion World Pays Tribute British Fashion Icon “Queen Of Punk”, Vivienne Westwood

The Fashion World Pays Tribute British Fashion Icon “Queen Of Punk”, Vivienne Westwood

Comments 2

  1. Khurram Ayub says:
    1 month ago

    Despite all doom and gloom dear Raza, the big news of this year is that the elephant in the room has been outed and can now be openly talked about in the media; second major land reforms have been announced after ZAB era and immovable assets of the bourgeoisie have been subjected to taxation apart from personal home like most developed nations. Bourgeois is fighting back by blocking it in courts and hopefully media will soon pick up this fight for the common good of the people instead of rich middle class.

  2. Fahad Motem says:
    4 weeks ago

    One perspective that maybe missing is that political integrity of the state – threatened from the religious and political borderlands – has become very fragile as victimization of marginal political parties, their leaders and political violence by non-state actors against mostly at margins of the state – are weakening the control of the army and forcing its rethink its role.

    It is also important to note that the establishment historically has benefited economically – particularly the military industrial complex – through a ‘failed state’ narrative – a troubled nuclear state doctrine with global terrorist potential presented to foreign powers has been used to get attention ,resources and a mercenary type of relationship for regional anti-terror strategies by global powers.

Recent News

PTI Decides Imran Khan Will Contest All 33 NA By-Elections

PTI Decides Imran Khan Will Contest All 33 NA By-Elections

January 29, 2023
Beyond Fantasy: This Historian Depicts Ottoman Power In Real Life

Beyond Fantasy: This Historian Depicts Ottoman Power In Real Life

January 29, 2023
Ishaq Dar’s Exchange Rate Policy

Ishaq Dar’s Exchange Rate Policy: Ignorance And Hubris

January 29, 2023

Twitter

Newsletter



Donate To Us

The Friday Times – Naya Daur

THE TRUTH WILL OUT


The Friday Times is Pakistan’s first independent weekly, founded in 1989. In 2021, the publication went into collaboration with digital news platform Naya Daur Media to publish under a daily cycle.


Social Media

Latest News

  • All
  • News
  • Editorials
  • Features
  • Analysis
  • Lifestyle
PTI Decides Imran Khan Will Contest All 33 NA By-Elections

PTI Decides Imran Khan Will Contest All 33 NA By-Elections

by News Desk
January 29, 2023
0

The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) announced that it will...

Beyond Fantasy: This Historian Depicts Ottoman Power In Real Life

Beyond Fantasy: This Historian Depicts Ottoman Power In Real Life

by Ahmad Faruqui
January 29, 2023
0

In Pakistan, as in much of the Muslim...

Social Feed

  • About Us
  • The TFT Story
  • Team
  • Write for TFT
  • Online advertisement tariff
  • Donate To Us

© 2022 All Rights Reserved.

No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Editorials
  • News
  • Analysis
  • Features
  • Spotlight
  • Videos
  • Citizens’ Voice
  • Lifestyle
  • Editor’s Picks
  • Good Times
  • More
    • About Us
    • Team
    • Write for TFT
    • The TFT Story
    • Donate To Us

© 2022 All Rights Reserved.

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password?

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In

Add New Playlist