The monsoon that inspired several Bollywood songs and many Urdu couplets has brought along trauma this year, and a few past years as well. This rainy spell will leave, but the thousands of families, stranded, homeless and/or displaced, some mourning for loved ones will stay. The country was still recovering from the shock of 2022 floods, which hit agriculture, industry and millions of households that are still recuperating. This time, it’s the Pakistani cities that bore the brunt of angry waterways. Amid all this, two major factors appeared in the narratives: climate change and faulty urban development. Both are correct in their own contexts.
Cloudbursts, Flash Floods and Dysfunctional Cities
While landslides and floods were known terms in the disaster discourse, cloudbursts have at least recently emerged in the discussions. As one local in Gilgit aptly put, it’s like the sky exploded. Strictly localised, cloudbursts occur in only a few kilometres’ area. Heavy rainfall, sometimes a hundred millimetres per hour, in a very small area inundate it severely. Cloudbursts are hard to manage in any terrain but are particularly catastrophic for cities already grappling with faulty sewerage system, drainage and encroachments.
Although a phenomenon attributed to mountainous regions, cloudbursts occur in plains and urban areas as well. They are expected to increase in frequency and intensity in Pakistan as another unfavourable result of climate change. However, the connection between climate change and cloudbursts is neither simple nor direct, one being a global occurrence and another a highly localised event. The link between these two is rising temperatures, which increase the atmosphere’s capacity to hold moisture and lead to more water evaporation. The warm moist air currents rise rapidly, condensing eventually and creating tall, dense clouds (cumulonimbus clouds). Moreover, the rapidly rising air creates strong updraft that keeps pushing the condense air upward. Eventually, the system weakens and bursts, hence called cloudburst.
On the other hand, same factors, ie, warm air and its tendency to carry more moisture are increasing the monsoon rainfall. According to a study, as a result of rising temperatures, the air’s tendency to carry moisture has increased by 7%, which increases humidity during monsoon and leads to significant increase in rainfall. Add to that the scorching pre-monsoon temperatures, causing droughts in some regions and glacial melt in others, and you have a disaster waiting to happen.
The connection between climate change and cloudbursts is neither simple nor direct, one being a global occurrence and another a highly localised event
What’s more, droughts tend to catalyse floods because of hardened soil’s lack of capacity to hold water. That’s what appears to have happened in 2025. In 2022, there was one more occurrence: a three-dip La Nina that compounded the floods. This time, fortunately, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle was neutral. However, it will not be neutral always. According to experts, these extreme events, ie, La Nina and El Nino are expected to be more frequent as a climate change impact.
Managing the ‘New Normal’
Amid all these alarming changes, an even more disastrous factor in Pakistan is the country’s lack of preparedness. It’s a sitting duck in the face of a storm, but the policymakers do not realise it. It’s an urgent issue that should be the forefront of every policy debate.
Institutionalising budget tagging for the first time is a step in the right direction. Moreover, the country has launched remote-sensing satellites (e.g. PakTES‑1A, PRSS‑1) that could support disaster monitoring. However, it alone wouldn’t accomplish much if proper execution lags. Proper execution involves preparation, early warning systems, and rehabilitation plans. While the GB government has halted the development of infrastructure for some time and the Punjab government has announced to revamp the sewerage system of Rawalpindi, such steps need to be taken at other places too. The procedure for granting environmental assessment approvals for development projects should be tightened to avoid any untoward situation in future.
Moreover, there cannot be a one-size-fits-all approach when it comes to disasters. Every region is different from each other in climate and terrain. Some regions may grapple with droughts while some may experience increased soil moisture due to unexpected rainfall before the advent of monsoon. Similarly, areas with glaciers and mountains as well as those in closer proximity have different weather conditions and hence need different remedies, as we already witnessed this year. In some regions, groundwater recharge will prevent or at least stem the intensity of floods while solving the issue of droughts on the go. Some areas would fare well with reforestation and increased vegetation cover. Therefore, the climate management strategy should be localised, ie, focalised on microclimates. In the management of microclimates, a crucial yet largely ignored element remains green water. Green water is the largest freshwater resource and yet least focused on. Focusing on managing green water stocks will not only help in managing local climate but also influence the hydrological cycles of other regions—sometimes transcending national borders.
Nevertheless, one policy issue that encompasses all these areas regardless of their climate is disaster preparedness. It’s no more news that these occurrences will not just keep happening but increase in frequency in the coming years. Capacity building of communities, reconciling local and scientific knowledge and increasing the capacity of local response departments and PDMAs is the need of the hour. Where public funds are short, the private sector can be roped in. Only recently, an entire family drowned while waiting for rescue for 1.5 to 2 hours. There should be warning signs and stops for tourists during the peak monsoon season and rescue service on high alert. The Met departments and PDMAs issue alerts regularly but execution on the basis of these alerts is mostly missing. Using satellite imagery to assess water levels and elevation can help prevent casualties drastically.
The rains may come and go, but the patterns they reveal, and the lives they impact, demand lasting attention. Climate resilience can no longer be a seasonal concern; it must be a permanent priority, rooted in science, policy, and the lived realities of those on the frontlines.