The 12-day war between Iran and Israel ended in a Trump-brokered ceasefire, and an uneasy truce is now in place. But who are the winners and losers in this unusual Middle Eastern conflict? In this war, Israel and Iran both went from escalation to a fragile ceasefire, and Donald Trump, Netanyahu, and the Iranian Supreme Leader have all made tall claims that the war ended on their terms. The truth is shrouded in the mists of war, and what exactly happened is still being debated and searched for. Was Iran able to save its nuclear programme? How much damage was done by the US bombardment? And will this ceasefire result in long-lasting peace in the Middle East?
After the US bombardment of Iran’s nuclear sites in Isfahan, Fordow, and Natanz, Donald Trump announced arrogantly to the world media that the Iranian nuclear programme had been “completely obliterated.” Iran vehemently denied such tall claims and, in return, launched a missile attack on the US air base Al Udeid in Qatar, sparking fears of igniting a broader war and bloodshed across the entire Middle East.
Surprisingly, within a few hours of the Iranian missile barrage, Donald Trump once again shocked the world by his sudden announcement: “It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a complete and total CEASEFIRE.” There was no denial or contradiction from the Iranian side, with a tacit silence showing approval of Trump’s announcement. Trump called it “the 12-Day War … that could have gone on for years and destroyed the Middle East.” Once again, Donald Trump trumpeted his claim of being a champion of peace, dousing the fires of war all over the world and declaring himself deserving of the Nobel Peace Prize.
Just a few hours after the ceasefire, Israel violated the agreement in revenge for two ballistic Iranian missiles that had entered Israeli airspace and were shot down. In retaliation, Israel targeted and destroyed an Iranian radar station near Tehran. The Israeli action was angrily condemned by the US President. “I’m really unhappy that Israel went out this morning,” he told reporters. “We’ve got two countries that have been fighting so hard and for so long, that they don’t know what the f*** they’re doing.”
Iran denied firing any missiles at Israel, and the ceasefire remained intact after Donald Trump phoned Netanyahu. “ISRAEL is not going to attack Iran. All planes will turn around and head home, while doing a friendly ‘Plane Wave’ to Iran. Nobody will be hurt, the ceasefire is in effect!” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
Israel faced a barrage of international criticism and condemnation from across the world for its blatant and illegal attack on Iran, citing reasons of self-defence and accusing Iran of developing nuclear weapons to be used against Israel
Since 1980, Israel has claimed that Iran poses a threat to its very existence, as Iranian clerics have publicly vowed to destroy Israel. But prior to this war, Israel had not attacked Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. During the 12-day war, however, Israel bombed facilities at the Natanz enrichment plant and the Isfahan nuclear facility, and Iran responded with a barrage of drones and missiles launched against Israeli cities.
In the past, Israel had brazenly launched pre-emptive air strikes against Iraq and Syria to dismantle their nuclear sites. With the attack on Iran, Israel demonstrated its capability and aerial prowess to carry out a difficult air operation at greater distances. Israel faced a barrage of international criticism and condemnation from across the world for its blatant and illegal attack on Iran, citing reasons of self-defence and accusing Iran of developing nuclear weapons to be used against Israel.
Even during past Arab-Israeli wars in 1967 and 1973, the USA had not intervened physically on behalf of Israel, instead providing arms, ammunition, and military hardware while remaining out of direct operational involvement. But this time, the US decided to attack Iran with its air force to assist Israel, and Netanyahu voiced his gratitude and appreciation.
The Israeli onslaught, codenamed Operation Rising Lion, was launched in tandem with the war against the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas in Gaza, and Hezbollah in the West Bank. All of Iran’s proxies and allies have been soundly weakened by Israeli actions during the past two years. Israel, by and large, was successful in damaging Iranian cities, and both Israel and the US have claimed to have totally destroyed Iran’s nuclear sites. However, there has yet to be any independent confirmation of these claims, and this will only be possible through on-ground verification, not satellite imagery of Iranian targets.
So far, no independent agency, including the IAEA, has been able to confirm or assess the damage to Iranian nuclear sites caused by the US bombings. “At this time, no one – including the IAEA – is in a position to have fully assessed the underground damage at Fordow,” said Rafael Grossi, Director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations nuclear watchdog, on Monday after the US strikes. “Given the explosive payload utilised, and the extreme vibration-sensitive nature of centrifuges, very significant damage is expected to have occurred,” he said.
The whereabouts of over 400 kg of highly enriched uranium are also a matter of concern for the Americans. Nothing is known about whether this precious cargo survived the bombing or was safely removed to another location beforehand. Mohammad Eslami, the head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organisation, suggested the nuclear programme would emerge unscathed. “Preparations for recovery had already been anticipated, and our plan is to prevent any interruption in production or services,” he said in a statement carried by the semi-official Mehr news agency.
The 12-day war could have become a regional disaster. Instead, it was bounded, focused, and effective. The world now faces a weakened Iran. Its nuclear programme is degraded. Its missile arsenal is halved. Its proxies are silent. Its credibility is shattered.