Following four days of armed conflict with India (May 7-10) it is time for Pakistan to focus on dealing with its internal fault lines. It means the government and military establishment must engage with political opponents and unleash the process of dialogue in order to mitigate the crisis situation in the country. Focusing on improving the economy, governance, and rule of law should also be a priority of those who matter because unless Pakistan is internally stable it cannot effectively deal with external threats.
Celebrating ostensible and pyrrhic victory over India is a short-lived phenomenon because Prime Minister Narendra Modi as an ‘injured lion’ will definitely settle scores with Pakistan soon. It is yet to be seen how far the United States, China, Turkey, and Azerbaijan will come for help because India is cleverly trying to compensate for the loss of its credibility by launching an aggressive international diplomacy campaign.
It is high time that those who wield power in Pakistan today take immediate and appropriate steps to deal with internal fault lines not only by reaching out to Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and other opposition parties to seek political consensus on issues that divide them. Furthermore, internal fault lines also mean dealing with volatile situations in Baluchistan and KPK through negotiations instead of using force. Dealing with the economic crisis by controlling expenditures, combating corruption, enhancing exports, and foreign exchange reserves, and improving the quality of life of people by ensuring safe and clean drinking water, quality education for all school-going children, better health, housing, public transport, and modern infrastructure will go a long way in strengthening the country from inside. Only when Pakistan is domestically stable can it properly deal with external threats. Opening and fighting on so many fronts ranging from Baluchistan, KPK, TTP, terrorism, PTI bashing, economy, and bad governance, will further mitigate Pakistan’s ability to deal with fault lines.
Pakistan must be very careful to deal with any future armed conflict with India as New Delhi will try its utmost to compensate for its previous losses
The road map for dealing with internal fault lines in Pakistan needs to be outlined by the concerned stakeholders with much prudence. Four major characteristics of the road map will require political will and determination by the government, military establishment, and opposition parties. First, instead of pursuing an ego-centric approach and denying opposition its due role by curbing its activities, the government must adhere to the rule of law and abide by the constitution by restoring the independence of the judiciary and revoking the 26th amendment which was passed without consensus. Will the government and military establishment go for such type of measure because for them, any relief to PTI’s incarcerated founder will reduce their hold over power? But, for them, the interests of the country should come first instead of pursuing a power-centric approach.
The government unlike its Indian counterpart, failed to include major opposition leaders in delegations sent to foreign countries to pursue active diplomacy. PTI/SIC which has around 100 members in the national assembly was not represented in delegations to foreign countries, which gave a wrong impression to the international community. When the BJP included a major opposition party like Congress in foreign delegations why the government in Islamabad follow an exclusive rather than an inclusive approach in this regard? By ignoring the main opposition party which has around 100 members in the National Assembly and the provincial government of KPK the government failed to follow a consensus approach on a major foreign policy issue.
Second, instead of opening so many fronts, the government and military establishment must focus on wisely dealing with insurgency in Baluchistan and terrorism in KPK. The situation in Sindh is also not favorable where Sindhi nationalists are asserting their position, particularly on the canal issue. When there is political fragmentation and separatist groups in Baluchistan are challenging the writ of the state, it is high time serious efforts are made by Islamabad to reach conciliation with PTI on contentious issues and hold talks with Baloch nationalists with respect. The ‘great game’ in Baluchistan is not India or Afghan but there are also other external players like Iran, the United States, China, Russia, and U.A.E. Merely relying on China, the U.S, and other countries for support in case of future Indian adventure will not help. In the minimum span of time, the government and military establishment must make a decision to mend fences with Baloch nationalists and TTP without compromising the country’s sovereignty.
Third, the post-Pahelgham and May 7-10 armed conflict with India has given an opportunity to Pakistan to keep its house in order and focus on dealing with internal fault lines in a prudent manner. But that is only possible when those who wield power today act in a wise manner and take the interests of the country first instead of controlling the instruments of power by all means. Adhering to freedom of the press, political pluralism and the rule of law will help restore trust and confidence between the government, military establishment, and the opposition.
Finally, Pakistan's air force managed to win over its Indian counterpart during the May 7-10 armed conflict, but analysts argue that the Modi government apart from sending delegations to 17 countries to explain its point of view on Pahelgham and May 7-10 war with Pakistan is seriously pondering on options to avenge for its humiliation. For that matter, Pakistan must be very careful to deal with any future armed conflict with India as New Delhi will try its utmost to compensate for its previous losses. Furthermore, can Pakistan compete with India economically particularly when its foreign exchange reserves, per capita income, GDP, and remittances are far lower than India? As the world’s fifth-largest economy and soon to overtake Germany and Japan and reach the third position, India needs to avoid war with its neighbors. But, India also needs to understand the fact that if it wants to emerge as the world’s first largest economy by 2047 it must have peace with neighbors and politically deal with its internal insurgencies along with controlling communal schism.
Every challenge has an opportunity and the post-7-10 May armed conflict between India and Pakistan tends to give a message that both neighbors must be wise enough to unleash the process of dialogue so that their contentious issues are resolved justly and peacefully. India needs to follow the model of China which since 1979 has not been in an armed conflict with its neighbors and since then it has focused on its economy. India can never be an economic superpower unless it has peace with its neighbors. Likewise, Pakistan needs to understand that without dealing with its internal fault lines it would remain a fragile state dependent on international lending agencies. Currently, Pakistan’s foreign debt is 135 billion dollars and its internal debt is several trillion rupees. The tax-to-GDP ratio is not much. Whereas India’s foreign exchange reserves are 700 billion dollars. Its exports are several hundred billion dollars and its remittances are another 100 billion dollars. There is no economic match between India and Pakistan, which was not the case before because, till the mid-1980s, Pakistan was much ahead of India in per capita income and economic growth rate.
Time is limited on the part of Pakistan. It may have a nuclear and conventional military power, but unless it is economically strong and politically stable with good governance and the rule of law it would remain vulnerable to its internal fault lines.