For Pakistan, the first quarter of the century (2000–2025) reflected ups and downs in the realm of domestic and foreign policy. Starting with General Musharraf’s military rule in October 1999, the first quarter of the 21st century ended with the military establishment dominating the so-called civilian government. With the end of Musharraf’s rule in August 2008, civilian governments tried to carve out democratic space, but following the end of Imran Khan’s government in April 2022, the assertion of the military in political matters and the mode of governance became a reality. Except during Musharraf’s era, when the economy performed relatively better in terms of the value of the rupee versus the US dollar, economic growth rate, and the performance of state institutions, the post-2008 era witnessed a downward slide in the economy and governance.
An analysis of Pakistan in the first quarter of the 21st century, however, reflects a surge in extremism, violence, and terrorism. Following 9/11, Pakistan became a frontline state in the US-led war on terror. While Islamabad received enormous military and economic assistance from the United States from 2002 to 2009, it paid the price of attaining the status of a major non-NATO ally by experiencing hundreds of drone attacks on its tribal areas and a surge in terrorism.
The manner in which the Red Mosque operation was conducted in Islamabad in July 2007, and the mishandling of the lawyers’ movement, reflected a surge in religious and political polarisation. To a large extent, the first quarter of the century for Pakistan ended on a pessimistic note because political pluralism, good governance, and the rule of law were undermined, and the country witnessed severe curbs on the media and the opposition, particularly the PTI.
One can examine six main characteristics shaping and influencing events during the first quarter of the 21st century. First, 9/11 changed the world and led to the US-led attack on Afghanistan in October 2001. Afghanistan remained a major flashpoint during the first quarter of the 21st century for 20 years, remaining under the control of the United States and NATO, and then, following the American withdrawal in August 2021, coming under the control of the Taliban. During this quarter, Afghanistan remained mired in violence and posed a major security threat to Pakistan and the region. The nexus between the TTP and the Afghan Taliban led to a major schism in Pak–Afghan relations.
Second, the Russia–Ukraine war, from February 2022 to the present, is another major flashpoint during the first quarter of the 21st century, leading to large-scale migration and the longest war in Europe since the end of the Second World War.
Third, the surge of Trumpism during the first and second terms of American President Donald Trump augmented serious political schisms in the United States. The rise of anti-immigrant and anti-non-white populism reflected the deepening of racial divides in America.
If those who wield power remain indifferent to the plight of the people and are only interested in perpetuating their rule while securing perks and privileges, Pakistan will be pushed further towards instability and insecurity
Fourth, relations between India and Pakistan faced ups and downs. The attack on the Indian Parliament in December 2001 led to a long standoff between New Delhi and Islamabad, followed by normalisation despite the Mumbai terrorist attacks in November 2008. However, with the rise of the BJP under Narendra Modi and the revocation of Articles 370 and 35-A, which granted special status to Jammu and Kashmir in August 2019, Indo–Pakistan relations nearly ruptured, culminating in a brief Indo–Pak war from 7–10 May 2025. During this quarter, Indo–Pak relations remained strained, particularly since 2019.
Fifth, on the domestic front, for most of the first quarter, Pakistan’s economy remained in dire straits. In 2000, the value of the Pakistani rupee was Rs 60 to the US dollar, which rose to Rs 282 by 2025. Likewise, the surge in Pakistan’s internal and external debt led to a serious erosion of the economy. The year 2025 saw a surge in Pak–US ties as relations between the two countries reached new heights.
The period from 2015 to 2025 witnessed the launch and progression of China–Pakistan relations under the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), leading to around $30 billion of Chinese investment in Pakistan to modernise infrastructure, particularly the Gwadar port. However, the first quarter of the 21st century also witnessed a surge in insurgency in Balochistan and violence in parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
The most unfortunate phase in Pakistan has been the deepening political schism between the military establishment and the PTI. The manner in which the February 2024 elections were manipulated and the majority party, PTI, was reduced to a minority reflected how democracy paid the price for the power ambitions of the PPP, PML(N), and the military establishment.
It appears that the first quarter of the 21st century in Pakistan led to the weakening of democracy and inclusive governance. Corruption, nepotism, and the erosion of merit strengthened mafias that destroyed the economy, politics, and governance. The manner in which PIA was privatised, and other state institutions faced a similar fate, suggests that those who wield real power in Pakistan have little regard for the welfare of the people. During this quarter, 25 million children remained out of school, and the state failed to provide necessities of life such as clean and safe drinking water, affordable housing, and employment opportunities for the youth.
Finally, overall, during the first quarter of the 21st century, the world experienced constant price hikes in essential commodities and a breakdown of fuel and food supply chains following the war in Ukraine. The most unfortunate episode of this quarter was the genocide of Palestinians in Gaza and the occupied West Bank by Israeli forces. Indeed, the war in Gaza from October 2023 until the recent ceasefire represents one of the most tragic phases of recent human history. The silence of the international community, particularly Arab countries, during the genocide in Gaza is lamentable. The erosion of American power and the rise of China and Russia in challenging unilateralism became a major reality in the first quarter of the 21st century.
For Pakistan, the real foreign policy challenge during the first quarter centred on dealing with India and Afghanistan. Domestically, the country remained hand-to-mouth, reflecting its sustained economic predicament. The question of how far Pakistan’s 250 million people will be able to deal with threats to their survival depends on leadership and remains unanswered. If those who wield power remain indifferent to the plight of the people and are only interested in perpetuating their rule while securing perks and privileges, Pakistan will be pushed further towards instability and insecurity.
Unlike Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Nepal, where the power of youth led to the overthrow of regimes in recent years, such a transformation has not occurred in Pakistan. Although 60 per cent of Pakistan’s population comprises youth, they remain unable to effectively challenge those who have ruined the country through authoritarian governance, corruption, nepotism, and their failure to eradicate extremism from society.
It remains to be seen how, in the next quarter of the 21st century (2026–2050), the world and Pakistan will change, or whether they will plunge deeper into economic crisis and political instability. As things stand today, there are two possibilities for Pakistan as it enters the second quarter of the century.
First, in 2047, the world will commemorate 100 years since the partition of the Indian subcontinent and the emergence of India and Pakistan as independent states. While India is confident that it will be the world’s number one economy by 2047, it remains uncertain where Pakistan will stand 100 years after its creation, given the absence of political pluralism, vibrant democracy, good governance, the rule of law, and a plausible economic recovery plan. Second, the coming 25 years will be make-or-break for Pakistan. Pakistan’s youth may yet play a decisive role in pulling the country out of decades of poor leadership.