India has long pursued regional hegemony in Asia, traditionally through prioritisation of economic growth and soft power to expand its sphere of influence. Under Narendra Modi, however, this ambition hardened into a zero-sum vision of regional dominance. Central to his political calculus was the belief that decisively subduing Pakistan would reinforce India’s claim to regional leadership. During his electoral campaign in 2014 elections, Modi adopted a hardline stance toward Pakistan. He routinely derided peace initiatives by his predecessors and presented soft diplomacy as a weakness. After assuming office in 2014, Modi translated his hyper-nationalist rhetoric into policy by abandoning strategic restraint in favor of coercive diplomacy and military aggression.
Modi’s Pakistan policy can broadly be categorised into four pillars: (1) bilateral disengagement; (2) diplomatic drive to isolate Pakistan regionally and internationally;(3) aggressive military posturing in response to alleged attacks by Pakistan-based militants; and (4) coercing media into amplifying a narrative of Indian dominance.
Initially, the Modi–led government mounted intense diplomatic pressure on Pakistan with a high degree of success. Modi administration’s oft-repeated mantra of “terror and talks cannot go together” set the tone for India’s disengagement. Refusal to attend the 19th South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) summit – and influencing multiple other member states to follow suit – resulted in the summit’s cancellation. Aggressive lobbying at the international stage ensured Pakistan’s continued presence on the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list between 2018 and 2022. These developments became a source of international embarrassment for Pakistan.
However, the weaponisation of military force, coupled with hyperbolic media narratives to sell fiction as gospel truth, in response to the alleged sponsorship of terrorism by Pakistan, ultimately proved to be the undoing of Modi’s Pakistan policy. After the Uri attack in 2016, India blamed the assault on militants operating from Pakistan and responded with what it called surgical strikes across the Line of Control. Pakistan denied the strikes ever took place. Regardless, the Indian government declared them a decisive break from past strategic restraint. Television screens flashed with triumphant headlines, and prime airtime was provided to chest-thumping defense analysts. The absence of independent verification of Indian claims was casually overlooked. The Indian public, having bought into the perception that Modi’s predecessor's diplomatic engagement with Pakistan was a weakness, embraced India’s change of policy. Thus, the model of military action paired with media amplification and intense diplomatic pressure to subdue Pakistan became a policy tool for the Indian government.
Despite growing ties with major powers, India failed to secure clear international support
In response to an attack on Indian military personnel in February 2019, India, once again, blaming Pakistan for the attack without providing any credible evidence, carried out airstrikes deep inside Pakistani territory, claiming to have hit a major militant training camp in Balakot and killing hundreds of militants. Yet again, the Indian media exploded with euphoric coverage and celebrated what it claimed to be a strong message to Pakistan. Modi was hailed as a brave leader for using necessary military force to deter Pakistan from allegedly sponsoring attacks carried out by non–state actors. However, going off script, Pakistan launched retaliatory airstrikes across the Line of Control the following day. In the ensuing skirmish, an Indian fighter jet was shot down, and its pilot was captured by Pakistan. Footage of the pilot calmly sipping tea while in Pakistani custody circulated widely, damaging the Indian narrative of dominance and deterrence.
The recent Pahalgam incident triggered another sharp escalation. As had become customary, India provided no conclusive evidence linking the attack to Pakistan. Nevertheless, it launched airstrikes on what it claimed were militant sanctuaries deep inside Pakistani territory. This time, however, Pakistan responded swiftly and decisively. Reports indicate the Pakistan Air Force shot down multiple Indian aircraft in the initial clash. In the following engagements, the Indian military avoided direct air combat, relying instead on loitering munitions and long-range missile strikes – reinforcing the perception of Pakistan’s complete dominance over the skies.
Unsurprisingly, Indian media jumped in to salvage the narrative. From claiming the destruction of Karachi’s seaport to the ground invasion of Pakistan, fiction was presented as frontline reporting. However, times have changed. Open-source intelligence analysts, fact-checkers, and ordinary citizens began debunking these claims in real-time. Time-stamped footage and witness accounts contradicted the official narrative. This was the dismantling of the Indian media’s hyper-nationalist narrative in real-time.
This collapse went beyond mere disinformation. It exposed a central flaw in Modi’s Pakistan doctrine: its heavy reliance on media to construct fictitious tales of military dominance over Pakistan. By turning tactical ambiguity into political victory, the Indian media had served as the glue holding together a shaky policy framework. But once that glue dissolved, the entire Pakistan policy crumbled spectacularly.
Diplomatic fallout from the Pahalgam crisis underscored this failure. Despite growing ties with major powers, India failed to secure clear international support. Even the United States, seen as India’s closest strategic partner in recent years, stopped short of endorsing its actions. Meanwhile, Pakistan secured unequivocal backing from China and Turkey. The balance of global perception was shifting.
The U.S.–brokered ceasefire that followed further highlighted India’s weakened position. Whether New Delhi or Islamabad initiated the backchannel is irrelevant. What matters is the outcome: India, after launching the offensive with maximalist intent, was forced to accept a ceasefire under adverse terms. While Pakistan calmly projected itself as a responsible state, only acting in self–defense and seeking de-escalation, India came across as reckless, jingoistic, and diplomatically weakened. The political and diplomatic costs of the ceasefire weighed heavier for India.
The consequences of this collapse are profound. Modi’s political persona as a strongman – the decisive leader who would bend Pakistan to his will – had been his biggest electoral appeal. It helped him consolidate a loyal voter base and justify an aggressive pursuit of regional hegemony. But that image was built on the illusion of success. And this time around, the illusion could not stand the public scrutiny.
Over the past decade, it has become clear that Modi’s Pakistan policy has fallen short on every front. Strategically, it has failed to deter Pakistan, which repeatedly showed a readiness to respond to provocation. Diplomatically, it has struggled to isolate Islamabad. Militarily, it has not dominated the escalation ladder. And in peddling a hyperbolic narrative, it has lost its monopoly on the truth. In the process, Modi’s credibility – both at home and abroad – has been dealt a crippling blow.
The time is nigh for the Modi administration to introspect and recalibrate its pursuit of regional leadership.