The United States provided every possible economic and strategic opening to India in the post-9/11 world — how? I have explained this in a previous piece. I also argued that the time has now come for India to pay back. Recent developments seem to confirm that argument.
While most eyes were fixed on the Middle East following the Israel–Iran war, tensions have been escalating in the South China Sea — the Taiwan issue looms large. Western media has begun constructing a narrative of an imminent Chinese invasion of Taiwan. How soon this may happen remains uncertain, but the anxiety is palpable — even in Beijing.
A recent online exchange between Israeli and Chinese diplomats illustrates this, as reported by The Diplomat. A member of the Israeli Knesset visited Taiwan, prompting a sharp reaction from the Chinese ambassador. His remarks were directed primarily at Boaz Toporovsky, a senior member of the centrist Yesh Atid party and chairman of the Israel–Taiwan Friendship Group, who had led a parliamentary delegation to Taipei in late April. China’s message was simple: Israel should refrain from supporting Taiwan against China. Toporovsky’s response was equally blunt — as long as China continues to assist Israel’s enemies (read: Iran), it should expect reciprocation. Tit for tat.
This is where India enters the frame, owing to its close defence ties with Israel. Indian media has been openly supporting Taiwan against China, signalling that both Israel and India appear to be on the same page regarding the China question. In their view, China had backed their adversaries in recent conflicts — Iran in Israel’s case, and Pakistan in India’s. It is also in the interest of the West, particularly the United States, to stoke tensions in the East, thereby diverting China’s gaze away from the West.
China’s Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, made a striking statement during a recent visit to Europe: China cannot afford to see Russia lose in Ukraine. The message was unmistakable — China is no longer content with remaining a bystander. This marks a clear departure from Beijing’s earlier posture of neutrality following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Before this, the world had already taken note of the much-touted “partnership without limits” between China and Russia. That alignment has been deeply worrying for the West, especially the United States. Many Western strategists now lament what they describe as a failed American policy — one that inadvertently pushed Russia and China into a tighter embrace, thereby endangering Europe and undermining American global interests. But the time for regret has passed. The alliance has materialised.
India now faces a punitive 200% tariff on its pharmaceutical exports to the US, a sector valued between $12–15 billion
So now, the West turns to India.
Soon after India’s defeat in its so-called Operation Sindoor, US President Donald Trump repeatedly took credit for brokering the ceasefire between two nuclear-armed nations. No fewer than twenty times, likely more he reminded the world, particularly India, that he alone had prevented a nuclear catastrophe. Left unchecked, he claims, the region was just hours or days away from disaster. Unsurprisingly, Indians resent this narrative. Yet they have never officially denied Trump’s claims — for reasons of their own.
And that’s not all.
Trump has frequently labelled India the "tariff king", accusing it of unfairly exploiting American markets in a lopsided relationship that leaves the US with nothing to gain. Consequently, India now faces a punitive 200% tariff on its pharmaceutical exports to the US, a sector valued between $12–15 billion. Notably, much of India’s pharmaceutical industry relies on raw materials imported from China. And that’s just the beginning. Indian textile and jewellery exports to the US are now facing tariffs of 20–30%. In addition, a 10% surcharge will be levied simply because India is a member of BRICS — a ‘special penalty’ for being part of a bloc perceived to be working against US interests.
Now consider this:
India has a massive and widening trade deficit with China, importing far more than it exports. According to April 2025 data, the deficit has reached a record $99.2 billion. Meanwhile, in 2024, the US ran a goods trade deficit with India of $45.7 billion, with exports at $41.8 billion and imports at $87.4 billion — a 5.4% increase from 2023. The figures speak for themselves. India’s trade deficit with China is effectively balanced out by the profits it makes from the US market. If access to the US market is lost, everything unravels.
So, India must now choose: comply with Washington, or risk losing its economic lifeline.
The consequences of losing that access would be disastrous — factory closures, mass unemployment, and runaway inflation. A full-blown economic nightmare. What’s the escape route? Accept American demands. Move your naval fleet to the South China Sea. Face the heat. After all, the US gave India space to grow while Pakistan was constrained by sanctions over the past three decades. India was allowed to operate in Afghanistan, supporting groups like the TTP and BLA to destabilise Pakistan and sabotage CPEC. That arrangement suited both sides. Now, it’s time for India to step up — and show up — in the South China Sea.
India has very few options left.
During his recent visit to China for the SCO Council of Foreign Ministers (15–17 July), India’s External Affairs Minister, S. Jaishankar, struck a notably conciliatory tone. This is the same Jaishankar who, not long ago, had haughtily declared that normalisation of relations with China was not foreseeable. Fair enough. When you’ve hosted the Dalai Lama since 1959, refused to negotiate border disputes on any clear principle — not just with China but with most neighbours then naturally, ‘normal’ relations are a distant dream.
So, what choices remain?
To normalise ties with China would require expelling the Dalai Lama, withdrawing claims to Tibet, Ladakh, and Arunachal Pradesh. Not going to happen? Then accept the status quo: keep importing Chinese raw materials, process them in Indian factories, and export to the US. But if you want to keep exporting, be prepared to pay high tariffs or relocate your pharmaceutical production to the US. Can’t afford that either? Then return to the original plan to help the Americans in the South China Sea. Move your naval fleet, confront China, and prove your allegiance.
The days ahead will be fascinating to watch.