“We suffer from an incurable disease called hope.” — Mahmood Darvesh
There are moments in history when the decline of a great power becomes more consequential than its rise. Faced with the erosion of long-held dominance, such powers often react with a mixture of fear and determination, attempting to hold back the tide of change. The recent desperate attempts by the Empire to preserve its hegemony illustrate this pattern: weaponising global trade, alienating long-standing allies through threats and intimidation, denying the urgency of climate change while promoting fossil fuels, and seeking to control global energy resources through new wars. The unfolding war in the Middle East can therefore be understood, in no small measure, as one of the convulsions of a fading order.
The Colonial Legacy and the Birth of a Conflict
At a time when the world was attempting to leave the age of colonialism behind, one of the most consequential colonial enterprises of the twentieth century was being brought into existence. In the aftermath of the Second World War, as Asia and Africa rose in anti-colonial struggles and European empires slowly unravelled, a new political project emerged in Palestine that would fundamentally reshape the Middle East and haunt global politics for decades to come.
For the native Palestinians, the mid-twentieth century did not bring liberation but a tragic reenactment of a familiar colonial pattern. Land was lost, communities were uprooted, and political identity fragmented as a new state took shape on territory long inhabited by an indigenous population. What unfolded in Palestine bore many of the characteristics of settler colonial histories that had transformed societies elsewhere in the world.
Antisemitism was a deeply rooted European problem that reached its most horrifying culmination in the Holocaust. Yet even after the defeat of Nazi Germany, many European societies remained reluctant to absorb large Jewish populations into their own national fabric. Few were willing to facilitate substantial Jewish settlement within Europe itself or in their own settler societies such as the United States, Canada, or Australia, where millions of Europeans had already migrated. At a moment when their own colonies were slipping from their grasp, Europe effectively transferred the burden of its unresolved historical tragedy to Palestine with the creation of the state of Israel.
The Rise and Decline of Arab Nationalism
At the same time, a powerful countercurrent was emerging across the Arab world. Anti-imperialist national liberation movements were gaining strength, and Pan-Arabism developed into a potent ideological force. With roots in the late Ottoman period, Pan-Arabism advanced the idea that Arabic-speaking peoples constituted a single nation bound by language, history, and culture. Its proponents envisioned the eventual political unification of the Arab world from Morocco to Iraq. Crucially, the movement emphasised secular nationalism rather than religion as the basis of unity and positioned itself firmly against Western influence in the region.
The ideology reached its zenith in the 1950s and 1960s under Gamal Abdel Nasser in Egypt. His defiance of Western powers during the Suez Crisis of 1956 transformed him into a symbol of anti-colonial resistance across the Arab world. Parallel movements gained influence elsewhere. The Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party, which came to power in Syria and Iraq, promoted a mixture of Arab nationalism and socialism and advocated political unity among Arab states.
The weakening of secular political forces allowed more radical organisations to gain influence across the region
Yet the promise of Pan-Arabism gradually unravelled. The decisive turning point came with the Six‑Day War of 1967, when Israel inflicted a swift and devastating defeat on Egypt, Syria, and Jordan. The war redrew the territorial map of the region and delivered a profound psychological blow to the ideology of Arab unity. Israel emerged in control of the West Bank, Gaza Strip, East Jerusalem, the Sinai Peninsula, and the Golan Heights.
The defeat shattered the confidence of Arab nationalist leadership and accelerated the fragmentation of the Arab political order. Large numbers of Palestinians, already displaced in 1948, continued to live as refugees across neighbouring countries such as Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and Egypt.
Palestinian political movements emerged to represent the struggle for national self-determination. Organisations such as the Palestine Liberation Organization and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine initially framed the Palestinian cause within the broader language of secular nationalism and anti-imperial resistance.
Meanwhile, the wider geopolitical environment was increasingly shaped by the Cold War. The Middle East’s vast energy resources and strategic geography made it a central arena of competition between the United States and the Soviet Union. Washington cultivated alliances with conservative monarchies in the Gulf while maintaining strong political and military support for Israel. The Soviet Union, in turn, developed close relations with several Arab nationalist regimes.
Wars, Fragmentation, and the Collapse of the Old Order
A further transformation occurred with the Iranian Revolution of 1979, which replaced the Western-aligned Shah with an Islamic Republic. The revolution introduced a new ideological current into regional politics and intensified rivalry between Iran and several Arab states closely aligned with the United States.
Following the end of the Cold War, the United States emerged as the dominant external power in the region. The Gulf War of 1991 demonstrated this new balance of power and established a long-term American military presence in the Gulf.
The decades that followed witnessed a series of conflicts that profoundly destabilised the region. The invasion of Iraq in 2003 dismantled the Iraqi state and unleashed prolonged violence and regional rivalry. This was followed by the collapse of Libya after the 2011 North Atlantic Treaty Organization intervention and the devastating civil war in Syria, further fracturing the regional order.
A century after the fall of empires that once ruled these lands, the Middle East remains suspended between the weight of its past and an uncertain future
Many of the regimes weakened during these upheavals had originally emerged from the earlier era of secular Arab nationalism. Their decline created political vacuums often filled by sectarian militias, Islamist movements, or externally supported factions. The weakening of secular political forces allowed more radical organisations to gain influence across the region.
Meanwhile, Israel consolidated its position as the region’s most powerful military state with strong backing from the United States. Over time, several Arab governments recalibrated their strategic priorities, placing greater emphasis on domestic stability and the perceived threat from Iran. These shifting calculations eventually led some Arab states to normalise relations with Israel.
In the absence of sustained support from Arab governments for the Palestinian cause, Iran moved to fill the vacuum by supporting allied groups in Lebanon and building influence across Iraq and Syria. At the same time, the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran fuelled proxy conflicts across the region, most dramatically in Yemen, where competing factions plunged the country into a devastating civil war.
The decline of secular Arab nationalism also created a vacuum within the Palestinian movement itself. Over time, Islamist groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah gained influence, reflecting both the disillusionment with earlier nationalist leadership and the broader regional shift towards political Islam.
The Middle East in a Changing World Order
The present crisis in the Middle East must therefore be understood not as an isolated episode but as the culmination of these layered historical processes. The continuing tragedy in Gaza and the broader confrontation between Israel and various regional actors have once again placed the Palestinian question at the centre of global attention. Decades of stalled diplomacy, expanding settlements, and the erosion of the prospect of a viable Palestinian state have created conditions in which cycles of violence have become almost inevitable.
At the same time, the regional balance of power is undergoing another transformation. Iran has emerged as a significant strategic actor through its network of alliances and non-state partners across Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. This has deepened the rivalry between Iran and several Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia and the Gulf monarchies, while simultaneously drawing Israel more closely into their security calculations.
The involvement of external powers continues to shape the trajectory of the region. The United States remains Israel’s principal strategic ally and maintains extensive military and political influence across the Middle East. Yet its dominance is no longer uncontested. While Russia’s influence has weakened after losing much of its position in Syria, China has steadily expanded its diplomatic and economic footprint, positioning itself as an alternative partner for several regional states.
The Middle East is therefore becoming part of a broader global transition towards a more multipolar international order. Control over energy resources, strategic waterways, and regional alliances remains central to this emerging competition.
These regional conflicts are unfolding against the backdrop of a wider transformation in the international system. The post-Second World War order, built around American economic leadership, liberalised trade, and a network of alliances, is showing visible strain. Trade disputes, tariffs, and geopolitical rivalries increasingly dominate international relations, and the global economy that once appeared to be converging is now fragmenting into competing spheres of influence.
One of the most striking manifestations of this shift is the growing strain within the Western alliance that shaped global politics for nearly eight decades. Differences between the United States and its European partners have widened over questions ranging from trade and security commitments to relations with Russia and China. European states are struggling to adapt to the rapid pace of geopolitical change and the uncertain future of long-standing security arrangements.
A century after the fall of empires that once ruled these lands, the Middle East remains suspended between the weight of its past and an uncertain future. Its deserts, cities, and fractured borders still carry the echoes of unfinished histories. And yet, as Mahmood Darvesh reminded us, even in the darkest chapters of history, the people of this land continue to suffer from that incurable disease called hope.