In May, the world’s attention was suddenly focused on an intense aerial battle that broke out between the nuclear-armed warring siblings, India and Pakistan. Pakistan Air Force’s fighters reportedly downed five Indian Air Force jets, including three Rafales.
Pakistan’s Defence minister, Khawaja Muhammad Asif, told Reuters that Pakistan’s J-10 fighter was used to shoot down three Indian French-made Rafale planes. While the Indian Air Force fighters were shot down by missiles that came from Pakistan's J-10 fighters, the JF-17 that joined it in the aerial combat made headlines throughout the world.
Pakistan co-produces the JF-17 Thunder with China’s Chengdu Aircraft Corporation. Chengdu’s stock surged about 20% after the incident. Pakistan began receiving orders and inquiries from several countries in the Global South.
An exhilarated Khawaja Asif wasted no time in saying that now the aircraft has been tested in combat, “[W]e are receiving so many orders [from other countries] that Pakistan may not need the IMF in six months.”
If Asif’s statement is true, it would represent a breakthrough in Pakistan’s long-term struggle to boost the export of manufactured goods so that the balance of trade turns positive, the need to borrow money from the IMF and the Gulf Arab nations diminishes or is eliminated, and the economy takes-off like thunder.
The JF-17 is seen “as a market disruptor due to its affordable price tag and, more importantly, its recent success in combat,” says Manoj Harjani, research fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore. It is “Not hard to imagine the JF-17 becoming more widely adopted, especially by militaries that cannot afford fighters produced by Western companies.”
The new Block 3 variant propels the JF-17 into the 4.5 generation of fighters, featuring AESA radar and beyond-visual-range missile capabilities that rival more expensive jets
If the JF-17 exports materialise, they will accelerate production at the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC), support thousands of new jobs and put Pakistan on the world map as an exporter of advanced fighter aircraft. But for these benefits to flow, Pakistan will have to ramp up production capacity to handle these external orders while meeting the needs of its own air force, which won’t happen overnight. Currently, Pakistan is only producing 20 JF-17’s a year.
It’s also worth noting export revenues will not begin to flow in the short term. It can take years from contract signing to final delivery and payment.
To place things in context, Pakistan has been borrowing money from the IMF since 1958. As of October 2025, it was the Fund’s fourth-largest debtor at $8.96 billion. The idea that exporting a single fighter aircraft, which is co-produced with China and relies on Russian engines, will change Pakistan’s economic fortunes borders on fantasy.
That is not to say that the JF-17 Thunder is not a marketable asset for Pakistan. The fighter appeals to many countries in the Global South since it sells for $20-30 million, for a price that is much lower than those of other fighters as seen in this graph.
Pakistan and China signed an agreement in the late 1990s to develop the JF-17 aircraft, which is a lightweight, all-weather, multi-role fighter aircraft. The first prototype took to the air in 2003. The aircraft is powered by a single Russian-designed RD-93 turbofan engine, an improved version of the RD-33 that is found in the twin-engined MiG-29 Fulcrum.
The Block 3 variant places the JF-17 in the so-called 4.5 generation of fighter jets. It has air-to-air and air-to-surface combat capabilities, advanced avionics, an Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar, electronic warfare systems and the ability to fire beyond-visual-range missiles.
Their avionics and electronic capabilities are an upgrade from the fourth generation of fighter planes, such as the F-16 and Su-27, which were primarily built for speed and dogfighting.
Pakistan’s JF-17 comes with no political strings attached and appeals to countries that are unable to procure western equipment.
According to some sources, Libya and Bangladesh are both looking to buy 16 JF-17s each, while Saudi Arabia is possibly exploring a $2 billion deal with Pakistan for as many as 50. Indonesia is said to be in early discussions to acquire about 40 JF-17s. Other countries showing interest in the JF-17 are Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Iraq and Morocco.
However, the JF-17 Thunder’s export pipeline, currently valued at $13-20 billion, is shrouded with uncertainty. And there are many unknowns in quantifying the net profits that will flow to Pakistan, since the aircraft is jointly produced with China and includes parts imported from other countries. Geopolitical factors also cloud the picture. Transactions may be cancelled, payments may be delayed or cancelled due to financial crises within the importing nations, or exports may be sanctions depending on global headwinds.
This is a case where the unknowns outnumber the knowns. In situations such as these, it is best to consult with experts. I reached out to half a dozen experts. I also reached out to friends across the globe who track events in Pakistan closely.
Shahryar Niazi, whom I interviewed recently about his book, had this to say:
“The surge in fighter aircraft exports is undoubtedly a landmark achievement for Pakistan’s defence industry, yet the assertion that these revenues will unilaterally flip the national trade balance from a deficit to a surplus is likely over-optimistic. Driven by essential energy, industrial machinery, and raw materials, the national import bill historically outweighs total exports. Nonetheless, these exports will provide a vital influx of foreign exchange and support our defence manufacturing sector that generates a powerful multiplier effect across the broader economy.
“Beyond the immediate financial injection, the true value of these exports is deeply strategic and long-term. By establishing Pakistan as a credible provider of defence technology, these deals serve as the foundation for decades of security cooperation and diplomatic leverage. These contracts—comprising maintenance, repair, and technical support—will ensure Pakistan remains an integral partner to its allies for years to come, helping to maintain a regional balance of power.”
Manzoor Ahmad, an authority on Pakistan’s exports, helped place the JF-17 exports in the broader context of the economy. He began by saying that with recent tariff reforms, Pakistan is likely to lower its trade deficit. But it is doubtful whether the value of exports can overtake that of imports soon. He listed the following concerns:
“First, Pakistan still relies on import substitution policies for value-added products. Look at its policies for mobile phones, auto parts or high value textiles. These could form a substantial percentage, but current policies of import substitution discourage them. Our textiles are low value cotton based as we have a highly protected market for synthetic fibers, which find little use in our exported products.
“Second, our regional borders are closed. Cheaper imports from India could have saved us foreign exchange and made our industries more competitive. Our exports to Afghanistan and thereby to Central Asia were growing but we closed that border as well. We are not a part of any major regional trading bloc.
“Third, our energy cost, interest rates and logistic costs are higher than other competing countries. There is hardly any freight movement through railways and our ports are more expensive than others.
“If we address these constraints and can exploit the potential of defence exports as well as minerals, we can make a difference but [exports are] not likely to overtake our imports.”
A third expert said: “This [exporting JF-17s] could just be a one-off event as a consistent supply of fighter jets is not feasible.”
A fourth expert noted: “This JF-17 Thunder bailing the country out is a fallacy. Pakistan would need serious investment to fulfil these orders and to buy the engines, avionics, radar, and so on from Russia and China.”
I also talked to a dozen friends who follow events in Pakistan very closely and are either located there or travel there frequently. With just a couple of exceptions, they did not think that exporting JF-17’s will turn around the country’s economic fortunes. Most of them thought it was nothing but hype, created to divert people’s attention from their everyday woes. Crime, lawlessness, soaring inflation and economic stagnation feature in the lives of most Pakistanis. The US has issued a travel advisory for Pakistan, citing these reasons. Roads in Pakistan’s biggest city, Karachi, are in a terrible shape. The time to commute to work has gone up, with no end in sight. Air quality in Lahore has soared to record highs.
A contrary opinion was put forward by a friend who said the JF-17 Thunder represents a significant turnaround in the country’s economic fortunes, since it represents the marriage of tech with defence, a very marketable feature. Another friend opined that even though Pakistan fell behind the Asian Tigers decades ago and has fallen behind Bangladesh during the past two decades, the JF-17 may finally bring the much-needed boost to Pakistan’s exports and allow the country to emulate the export-promotion path taken by the Asian Tigers and Bangladesh.
Whether the defence sector will become the key to Pakistan’s success in world markets remains to be seen. Currently, defence production is not a big share of the country’s manufacturing sector. Even if the JF-17 export boon materialises, it is doubtful whether it will spread to other defence equipment such as rifles, tanks and warships. Even if an across-the-board defence boom was to occur, it would only occur after a decade or two. And whether even that would trigger a turnaround in Pakistan’s economic fortunes is questionable.
Inspired by the success of the JF-17, Pakistan should broaden its export base. That will be the key to long-term success.