After a long time, Pakistan is getting positive coverage in the global media due to the very constructive role it is playing to mediate an end to the Iran War. Hopefully, the warring parties will find common ground and the war will end, leading to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The whole world will breathe a sigh of relief, and so will the 250 million Pakistanis who have been dealing with rising petrol prices, rationing and much else since the war broke out.
That will give Pakistan a chance to deal with the multiple challenges to its national security, some of which involve foreign policy and several of which involve domestic policy. To understand these challenges, I put seven questions to General Tariq Khan, who had a distinguished career in the Pakistan Army, which culminated with him heading Pakistan’s Central Command. My questions appear below, followed by his answers.
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Ahmad Faruqui: What is the status of Pakistan’s war with Afghanistan? Do you think it will end during the next year? If not, why not?
Tariq Khan: Pakistan’s war with Afghanistan is on a reciprocal basis, ie if Pakistan is attacked from Afghan soil, Pakistan will respond. The targets are terrorist camps accommodating TTP, warehouses, dumps, training centres, command and control hubs and equipment. The objective is to dismantle the capacity to wage war against Pakistan. It can always be escalated to include the TTA if found necessary. It does not deliberately target the people of Afghanistan. The conflict is currently under a ceasefire but that could always be broken if TTP continues to conduct cross-border violence.
The terrorist activity is funded, resourced and directed by a combination of foreign intelligence agencies. It is disruptive in nature, and its objective is to destabilize the Pakistan government by affecting the outlook for CPEC. If CPEC is adversely affected in KP and Balochistan, then these foreign powers will be glad to see that their interests have been served. The Afghanistan government, strapped for cash, is paid or supported in kind by foreign intelligence agencies. The US gave Afghanistan $1.73 billion in aid from 2021 to 2024. Since 2025, it has stopped funding Afghanistan, but some funds are being provided for humanitarian assistance. However, resources for such activities are clandestine and their amount is unknown.
I expect Pakistan’s conflict with Afghanistan to continue in varying degrees of intensity and tempo over the next few years. It will adversely impact both countries, but Afghanistan will be hit much harder. It will only cease once the Afghan government reaches some type of agreement with Pakistan and limits Indian influence. That may come to pass if the Afghan people rise in protest. Such an uprising may drive the Afghan government into Pakistani arms. In my opinion, the Pakistan Government must not lose its political and military will until this matter is permanently resolved.
AF: What is the status of Pakistan’s relations with India? Random conflicts continue to occur between the two siblings over alleged terrorism charges. And Kashmir continues to be a bone of contention. How do you see these issues playing out over the next year?
TK: Pakistan and India will remain existential enemies and a threat to each other. India sees itself as a regional power and China stands in its way. The road to China is through Pakistan and as such India will continue to plan, mount and execute operations, false flag activities until it is satisfied. Pakistani governments are not keen on supporting the Kashmiri cause for independence from India. However, in the future, that could change. There is no political solution for the Kashmir imbroglio. Unless it can be militarily taken over, the status quo will prevail. The leadership in Pakistan knows that Pakistan lacks the military capability to change the status quo.
AF: Last year, you wrote a comprehensive assessment of the economy of Pakistan in the Defence Journal. What is your take on Pakistan’s international debt? Imports continue to exceed exports. Without foreign remittances, the situation would be dire. What can be done to increase exports and reduce the international debt?
TK: Pakistan is caught up in a two-fold vicious cycle: a manufactured debt trap and a corrupt elite. The former is designed to keep Pakistan politically contained at the international level – to do as it is told. The latter is caught up in decisions made in individual interests and not national interests. Under the current environment, matters can only get worse and not better.
“Our conventional military expenditure is about $ 9 billion, confronting a threat that amounts to $ 85 billion – this can only be seen as a minimum defensive orientation toward a deterrence”
Exports are dependent on manufacturing and production. These are severely limited by the energy crisis in Pakistan. The elite manage the circular debt which pays capacity charges even though the capacity is not delivered. This cycle is vicious and I don’t see how it will go away. An economy that depends so strongly on remittances from unskilled labor in the Gulf countries is highly likely to improve without radical changes. The system of tax collection is flawed and focuses on a narrow base. Besides, 60% of the economy is informal, which is keeping things afloat but not contributing to the national exchequer.
The following needs to be done to improve the situation: contain corruption, introduce meritocracy, reform education, stop parochialism, and eliminate nepotism. In addition, ensure that the judiciary is independent of the executive branch of government and can give timely decisions, depoliticize the police, and get rid of red tape from the civil service. I do not see any of this happening any time soon.
It would require a new social contract and economic plan protected by the constitution designed to outlive the tenure of respective governments. This is not visible on the horizon.
AF: Other nations, such as Bangladesh, and not just the Asian Tigers, have reoriented their economies to become export oriented. Why has that proven so difficult for Pakistan?
TK: Because Pakistan is governed today by an illegitimate government. It is totally obsessed with self-preservation. Its decisions are based entirely on serving its own interests, even if they go against the national interest.
AF: The rate of economic growth in Pakistan continues to be low, while the rate of population growth continues to be high. What can be done to accelerate the former and decelerate the latter?
TK: Pakistan needs to control the rate of population growth, and implement economic reforms, as mentioned above. Improvements in the domestic saving rate can only come about when Pakistan is governed by a government that is genuinely interested in improving the lives of its citizens.
AF: Do you think Pakistan is spending the right amount of money on defence? Since it demonstrated its nuclear capability in May 1998, why has that not allowed it to curtail defence spending, freeing up resources to enhance human development indices, such as the rate of literacy, the state of public health and the poverty rate?
TK: Acquiring nuclear capability is one thing but sustaining it is another. Our nuclear program can easily fall victim to IMF blackmail or international pressure whenever they feel we need to give up that capability. Our leadership would be willing to sell it off at the drop of a hat. In order to preserve our nuclear potential, we must demonstrate that we as a nation have a high threshold that does not depend on nuclear defence alone. This threshold determines how others view our nuclear program. If our conventional forces fall below a certain level where the defence of the country becomes doubtful through conventional means, then it implies that we are nuclear dependent and as such cannot be seen as dependable or responsible enough to handle a nuclear capability. Our conventional military expenditure is about $ 9 billion, confronting a threat that amounts to $ 85 billion – this can only be seen as a minimum defensive orientation toward a deterrence.
In my opinion, reducing the defence budget will not automatically improve the economy. It will only add to corruption and misappropriation of funds. There are 30,000 ghost schools in Punjab alone. This issue must be addressed before we begin to move on the defence budget. If it is reduced arbitrarily now it will lead to more ghost schools and Lear jets for the Chief Ministers of the provinces.
The defence budget is a product of threat. If the threat exists, it needs to be handled. Pakistan’s defence budget is 1/10th of the threat it faces. If this is not affordable, then Pakistan may give up any defence plans and reconsider its sovereignty in realistic terms. So, determining the right amount of expenditure on defence is directly proportional to how sovereign one wants to be.
AF: Karachi, the nation’s largest city, was once a model for all cities in the developing world. That’s no longer the case. The infrastructure, such as roads and bridges, is crumbling, while crime and lawlessness are widespread. What can be done to rectify the situation and why is it not being done?
TK: Karachi is what its government has made it. Once an illegal, corrupt government is put in chair by force, fraud and forgery, this becomes a foregone conclusion. Their leader is known all over the world Mr. 10 % and yet he continues to serve as the President of Pakistan. These people are not representative of the people of Pakistan, nor are they answerable to the people. I am afraid that if current trends continue, Karachi, just like all other cities and towns in Pakistan, will slowly crumble into the dust. I am sorry to say this, but if Pakistan continues to degenerate, it will sink by the day and drown in its own abscess.