The Population Council of Pakistan under the dynamic and resilient leadership of Dr. Zeba Sathar remains a pivotal advocate of managing our exponential population growth, which includes family planning. Of course, the UNFPA has been a consistent technical and financial supporter. The Council and UNFPA have published Pakistan@2050: Demographic Change, Future Projections, and Development Opportunities (Islamabad: Population Council,2024). This is a wide-ranging, meticulously researched, and rigorously data-driven study. The contributions of a number of national and internationally reputed demographers, economists, data analysts and international consultants lend credibility to the authenticity of data and projections. The research draws on the latest census data and extensive demographic analyses to project future population trends and assess their implications for social and economic development.
The report is divided into three sections and seven chapters, 8th chapter being the conclusion and recommendations are perceptively done by Dr. G M Arif as a reviewer and consultant. The report also has several outstanding features, for example, it identifies and analyses demographic trends and makes population projections, and it draws attention to social, and economic implications and political ramifications, manifested in the form of governance and policy challenges. It is holistic and evidence-driven. Since my association with the National Institute of Population Studies (2005-2007) and the President Population Association of Pakistan (PAP) 2008-2010, I have been a keen observer of policies and pitfalls of population dynamics in the country. I am not a demographer but have learned from demographers that for sound, judicious, and effective social and economic policies understanding of demographic dynamics of a country like Pakistan is crucial. For me, it is heartening to note that Pakistan @ 50 treats Population growth as a core national issue--an issue of strategic significance, survival, and sustainable development.
Taking cognisance of multiple challenges that hover around changing demographic dynamics and population growth in Pakistan, it makes substantive recommendations. In part one, I have found chapters on Population Dynamics in Pakistan and Population @ 2050: Projections and Implications for Sustainable Development descriptive but analytical, rich in data, and infographics. While they are alarming, they are also realistic while projecting future trends. The chapter documents Pakistan’s rapid population growth, highlighting a sevenfold increase since independence, underscoring an annual growth rate of around 2.55 %. It primarily attributes it to low and uneven fertility decline. The report points out that the country began to experience a fertility decline in the post-General Zia period (1988-2000) from 6.2 children per woman to 4.8 children per woman in 2000-2001. This is still high compared to the neighboring countries. The expectation then was that fertility decline would continue as a result of community outreach policy interventions, such as the Village-based Family Planning Workers Scheme, Lady Health Workers Program, Social Marketing Programs & Prime-Minister’s family planning and health care initiatives.
The youthful demographic structure could become an asset if we invest in education, skills, human development, and a nightmare if it is allowed to remain illiterate
The study notes that these were well-designed policy interventions but suffered from ineffective implementation – and I may point out that the staff was neither adequately trained nor motivated to excel professionally. Ironically, population issues were further aggravated, following the 18th Constitutional Amendment, when the Ministry of Population Welfare at the federal level was devolved to the provinces, this led to confusion, policy chaos, and escalated lack of coordination among population, health, and social welfare departments. Consequently, population growth continued to accelerate, multiplying governance challenges and adding burden to socio-economic development. Therefore, the report projects a substantial increase in both the total population and the working-age- cohort.
The report identifies six significant trends. First, a high population growth rate is likely to persist as the fertility rate despite modest decline continues to be higher than the replacement level, hence population growth remains unstoppable. Second, nearly 60% of Pakistan’s population is below 30 years old, thus the ‘Youth bulge’ is likely to sustain for the coming decades, the youthful demographic structure could become an asset if we invest in education, skills, human development, and a nightmare if it is allowed to remain illiterate, uncouth and vulnerable to extremist tendencies. It puts pressure on resources and poses a challenge for job creation. Striking a balance between asset and liability remains a worrisome trend. Third, a significant trend is a rapid urbanisation coupled with a high rate of rural-to-urban migration. The report recognises migration as a ‘major demographic process’ influencing the shaping of Pakistan’s population. In chapter 4, the report links economic performance with demographic trends, through data and analysis demonstrating how per capita income, savings, and investments have been suppressed by the rising population growth rates.
In Pakistani society, the pressure for women to have children within the first year of marriage must be challenged, fostering a culture where women have autonomy over their reproductive health and family planning is not stigmatised
At the current rate of urbanisation by 2050 almost 50% of the population will be living in urban centers. The report cautions that the urban center’s health, housing, and educational facilities that attract rural migrants to urban centers are collapsing, intensifying the crisis of governance, accelerating crime, law, and order, and eroding the writ of government and rule of law. Rapid urbanisation and migration are also increasing regional disparities. Fourth, the report notes that gender disparities persist and are rising. The report points out that gender gaps in female education and labor force participation are persistent and on the rise. The report links these inequalities to high fertility rates and inadequate human capital formation. Fifth, these demographic trends are shown as compounding complexity to issues, such as poverty, resource depletion, and climate change. This requires that policies should be so designed that they integrate these development changes. The report does draw attention to gender disparity and socio-cultural barriers to family planning in the rural setting of Pakistan, however, it shies away from treating population growth as a cultural issue. More than male preference, patriarchy, and the insignificant role of women in childbirth, it is the societal value structure that shapes population growth in the country.
Culturally, In Pakistani society, the pressure for women to have children within the first year of marriage must be challenged, fostering a culture where women have autonomy over their reproductive health and family planning is not stigmatised. Thus, educating parents along with their children is also an important dimension that needs to be considered. Culture matters in determining the outlook, orientation, and attitudes toward treating the population as a development issue and not simply a reproductive health issue and the report also breaks that barrier. The report could have deepened the discussion on how to break cultural barriers and pursue cultural reform, particularly in rural areas and belief-driven communities. Sixth, a significant contribution of the report is that it draws attention to the broader context under which the demographic trends must be viewed, climate change, resource management, and social policies. Tying demographic dynamics with climate change is a path-breaking contribution of the report.
The report also offers concrete and practical recommendations: First, the report is robust in pleading a case for realignment of health, education, social protection, welfare, and economic policies for managing population growth and not treating population as a stand-alone or simply family planning issue. The report is emphatic in advocating continuity of policies and devolution leading to a revival of local government. Second, it articulates the capacity building of provincial governments and enhances the authority of local government to ensure that services of education, health, and family welfare are provided to the people at the grassroots level. Forsake top-down centralisation; decentralise, devolve, and focus on the delivery of services. Third, invest in human skill development and prioritise female education. Fourth, it calls for achieving universal school enrollment by 2028, I will go one step further by proposing the enforcement of Article 25 A of the constitution: “The state shall provide free and compulsory education to all children of the age five to 16 years”.
Early childhood quality education is decisive for cognitive development and long-term academic success. This includes training teachers, developing relevant curricula, and ensuring that schools have the necessary resources. Fifth, set measurable targets, by aligning demographic objectives (such as reducing the fertility rate to 2.2% per woman by 2030) with social and economic policy goals. And establish key performance indicators (KPIs) to monitor progress. Finally, to leverage youth dividend design long-term policies that integrate, skill development, job creation, innovation/technology, educational, and cultural reforms to harness the youth dividend. Pakistan @ 50 is a wake-up call, it is comprehensive, holistic, and in my view reminds us to treat population growth as a core national issue, therefore these recommendations must be transformed into concrete, culturally reformist, locally tailored action plans, which help change the social norms of governance and help secure a demographic future that leads to sustainable development.
Besides, the academic community, it is a must read for the politicians, civil-military bureaucrats, media persons and civil society advocates.