India has suddenly released a large quantity of water into the Jhelum River without giving any prior information to Pakistan. This action, which directly affects Azad Kashmir and Pakistan’s water system, has come at a time when Pakistan’s water reservoirs are already at low levels due to a dry season. Before this released water reaches Mangla Dam, it passes through populated areas like Muzaffarabad and Hattian Bala. If the flow is too high and sudden, it can cause serious damage in these areas.
The Jhelum River is important for both India and Pakistan. In India, several hydroelectric projects exist on it like Uri Dam and Kishanganga Dam. However, once Jhelum enters Pakistan, Mangla Dam becomes the major storage point. Mangla Dam, located near Mirpur, can store up to about 7.4 million acre-feet (MAF) of water. If Mangla has enough empty capacity, it can capture the incoming flow. If not, then there is a real danger of uncontrolled flooding in the nearby regions.
It is important to remember that India has also built dams on the Chenab River, like Baglihar Dam, Salal Dam, and Dulhasti Dam. Baglihar alone has a live storage capacity of around 0.11 MAF. In comparison, the Chenab River is even more vulnerable to sudden water releases because India has better control over it due to its geography.
Under the Indus Waters Treaty, India is supposed to share data about water discharges regularly. It is not just a formality — it is the backbone of river management between the two countries
At the moment, the water released by India may actually help Pakistan to some extent because our reservoirs are low and the extra water could be stored for irrigation and power generation. However, the bigger problem is not the flood this time. The real danger is that India, by not sharing hydrological data in advance, is making Pakistan blind in water management. Without timely and proper data about how much water is coming, when it will come, and for how long, Pakistan cannot plan dam operations, canal openings, or flood warnings properly. In simple words, it becomes like fighting a fire while blindfolded.
Under the Indus Waters Treaty, India is supposed to share data about water discharges regularly. It is not just a formality — it is the backbone of river management between the two countries. Breaking this trust can cause chaos not only today but also in the future whenever heavy rains or emergencies arise. Water cannot be controlled without information.
The sudden release of water shows that India is willing to play with the basic understandings on which river management between the two countries depends. Even if Pakistan manages this particular flow without much harm, the path India has chosen is dangerous. It will increase mistrust and tensions. The people of Azad Kashmir who live before Mangla Dam are the ones who would suffer first if floods come unannounced. Cities, towns, crops, and lives could be at risk simply because someone upstream refused to inform in time.
The situation today demands that Pakistan stay alert. Immediate steps are needed to watch the river inflows closely, manage Mangla Dam carefully, and raise the matter strongly at every international platform. The time to act is now because when water comes in waves without warning, damage comes first and explanations come later.