We are living in the era of Global Boiling, as stated by UN Chief António Guterres, highlighting the seriousness of extreme hot weather. Heat waves account for 30% of people's deaths from climate-induced events in the last three decades. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that between 2030 and 2050, 250,000 people will lose their lives due to heatwaves.
The impacts of heat waves are not limited to human lives. They have a significant negative impact on the economy. The agricultural sector is highly vulnerable. Heat waves proportionally reduce agricultural productivity and yield. The health sector faces an additional burden during such a period. Diseases, such as cardiovascular, hypertension, and respiratory diseases, become common among elderly people, children, and women.
Like other weather-induced events, heat waves are affecting all nations. However, governance and financial constraints make developing countries more vulnerable to it. Pakistan has experienced heat waves several times in recent years. In 2015, 1,200 people died and 50,000 were injured in Karachi city, and in 2018, 65 people died in just three days. Furthermore, in June 2024, Pakistan experienced extremely hot weather. It was observed that the Southern and Central Punjab, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Kashmir faced 4-6 °C higher than normal temperatures. While in Sindh, South Punjab, and portions of Balochistan faced 2–4 ºC above normal. Heat waves are predicted to hit 11 districts of Sindh and 4 districts of Punjab, where temperatures can exceed 45°C this year. In the future, it is expected that our population fraction exposed to heatwaves will increase by 32% under the scenario of RCP 4.5, and 36% under RCP 8.5 by 2050.
The alarming increase in heat waves in Pakistan is closely linked to the rapid loss of green cover and ongoing deforestation. Pakistan provides less than 5% of its total area to forest and green cover, and our per capita tree is five, the lowest in South Asia, whereas we are also facing a high rate of deforestation, losing 11,000 hectares of forest each year.
Our early warning system needs to be more modernised for the accuracy of data and information. Incorporation of Artificial Intelligence with early warning systems has become compulsory for disaster-vulnerable Pakistan
Pakistan’s geography makes it a hotspot for cascading climate disasters triggered by extreme heat. In the north and mountainous region, the Glacial Lakes Outburst Floods, landslides, and flash floods can be intensified due to extreme hot weather. In Central Pakistan, disasters like cyclones, river floods, and forest fires can occur, while in the southern region, droughts and fast winds can occur with high frequency and intensity.
In recent years, the government of Pakistan has taken many measures to combat climate change. As the Pakistan Meteorological Department has already issued warnings and principal guidelines for tracking heat waves. Now, governments, both federal and provincial, need to be more proactive and ensure effective measures before facing the devastating impacts of heat waves. Countermeasures for heat waves may be short-term and long-term. However, under the current circumstances, Pakistan needs both of them. Information dissemination, upgrading of hospitals, establishment of cooling centres, adjustment of office timing, and community-led initiatives are some common short-term measures to mitigate heat waves.
Now, heat waves are showing signs of arrival, so the governments need to be focused on information dissemination. Educational institutions and workplaces are the most suitable places to conduct awareness sessions and educate people about heat waves and their preventive measures. Technological advancement has become an effective tool for information sharing. TV and digital ads can be used for the wider and deeper dissemination of information. If the government onboards the local community and develops community leaders, the flow of information becomes easier and more effective.
The health sector comes under intense pressure during this period. Before any catastrophic event, the health sector needs to be equipped with well-trained human resources, along with the availability of medicine stocks. Mobile emergency units with a well-equipped ambulance are also necessary in this regard.
A cooling centre is an effective measure in an emergency situation. Public places such as parks, libraries, and bus stations are the best places for establishing a cooling centre. With the collaboration of the district administration, the health department, and the Rescue department cooling centre can be established. Furthermore, adjustment of office hours and working from home during extremely hot weather can minimise the direct impact of heat waves. However, these short-term measures need to be aligned with long-term measures. Different countries of the world have successfully addressed this by taking long-term policies and measures. Our land use and urban policies need to be reformed according to international standards. The government of Singapore has successfully introduced “Urban Cooling Initiatives.” Under this initiative, the government is promoting green roofs, vertical gardens, rooftop parks, and shadow foundation structures in public places. In the United Kingdom, early warning of heat waves is linked with direct messages to vulnerable communities. People get information about 2,3 days, and they take the necessary countermeasures.
Our early warning system needs to be more modernised for the accuracy of data and information. Incorporation of Artificial Intelligence with early warning systems has become compulsory for disaster-vulnerable Pakistan. In Phoenix, United States, the government has successfully implemented the “Cool Pavement Program” for the mitigation of heat waves. Under this program, reflective materials and coatings are used in infrastructure development schemes and have successfully reduced surface temperature
As Pakistan heats up, we can no longer afford to treat extreme weather as an occasional inconvenience. It’s time to act boldly, urgently, and together before the next wave hits harder than we can handle.