Something feels off when a country that grows its own food still ends up importing it. Last year, it didn’t just feel off. It turned into a crisis. Pakistan imported 3.5 million tonnes of wheat. At the same time, around 4.3 million tonnes were already lying inside the country, sitting in storage.
When farmers brought their crop to the market, they found it already full. Flooded, but not with their grain. The support price of Rs3,900 per 40 kilograms, which they had been informed about, remained only on paper. In reality, many had to sell near Rs2,800. Below cost. Below effort. Thousands came out and protested in Lahore, asking what went wrong. The state lost around Rs300 billion. A few officials were suspended. Then things went quiet again.
It's simple to say this was a mistake. Or incompetence. But it doesn’t feel random. The idea that Pakistan has “food insecurity” starts to look different when such events keep happening. It starts to feel like something is intentionally being controlled in this manner. There is more room for imports and less room for local production. Furthermore, these imports are not happening in a vacuum. They benefit someone. This is how value moves: from land to farmers and then to people who are closer to power.
And it’s not just wheat. It shows up again and again. Take sugar. In 2019–20, about Rs25 billion was given as a subsidy so sugar could be exported. Stocks went down inside the country. Shortage followed. Prices went up, almost 45%. When things got loud, FIA stepped in.
Their own report said six major groups had enough control to influence the market together. And they did. The names that came up were not small ones. People with political weight. The same groups benefited when sugar was exported with a subsidy. And again, when prices increased locally.
Under IMF pressure, the support price system itself is being reduced, maybe removed
But the deeper issue is not just short-term gains. It’s what is happening underneath. The base itself is weakening. Cotton is a clear case. It used to be called "white gold." It powered the textile sector, which still makes up around 60% of exports. In 2014, production was close to 14 million bales. Now it is around 5.5 million. That is more than half gone in a decade.
Because of that drop, Pakistan now spends over $1.5 billion every year importing cotton. Local industry has taken the hit. More than 500 units—spinning mills, ginning factories—have shut down. This didn’t happen in one season. The closure was not due to a single flood. It came from years of weak decisions. Poor seed quality. No real support. A system that doesn’t favour the grower.
The same pattern appears in other areas. Pakistan produces a large amount of mangoes, among the top globally. But around 35–40% of fruits and vegetables don’t even reach the market properly.
They spoil on the way. That is roughly $150 million in mango exports lost. Not because demand is missing. Because the system around it is weak. No cold storage. Limited transport. Unreliable electricity. Instead of fixing this, the easier option keeps coming back—import more, subsidise that side, let losses stay where they fall.
There is always another explanation. That’s just mismanagement. That running a country this size is complicated. That global markets shift. Keeping food prices low in cities is necessary. And yes, some of that is true. These are real pressures.
The pattern, on the other hand, doesn't look random anymore. The same outcome keeps repeating. The same side keeps gaining. The importer takes over the farmer. The trader overtakes the grower. Those with access over those without. It ceases to feel accidental when the results remain this consistent.
Now there is another shift coming. Under IMF pressure, the support price system itself is being reduced, maybe removed. The one mechanism that at least gave farmers some floor, even if imperfect, is being taken away. What remains is exposure. Full exposure.
And by the time the crop reaches the market, most of what mattered has already been decided. The harvest is taken long before it rots. Nothing really waits for fairness at that point; it only follows what was already fixed earlier. The field does its part, but the outcome is already leaning somewhere else. And even before the weighing starts, the value has already been pulled away, quietly, without announcement.