The recent World Bank (WB) report, Reclaiming Momentum Towards Prosperity, paints a sobering picture of Pakistan’s economy. It examines poverty reduction, inequality, resilience, social protection, and governance, identifying the reversal of poverty reduction gains and the rise in inequality as major challenges. The report spans multiple domains, from labour markets to social transfers; however, it is the climate argument that demands urgent attention, as the solutions proposed display a semblance of technocratic fixes and lack in-depth, localised knowledge of Pakistan’s climate vulnerabilities.
Terming climate change a potent threat multiplier, the report projects that Pakistan’s climate-induced losses will reach between 4 and 8 per cent of its GDP by 2050. It highlights that climate shocks are disproportionately borne by people who lack financial buffers, savings, or access to safety nets. It acknowledges that climate change exacerbates existing inequalities by eroding resilience capacities and forcing poorer households to live in high-risk areas.
The report advises adaptation through climate-smart agriculture and a climate-adaptive social protection system, particularly by utilising the Benazir Income Support Programme to deliver rapid cash transfers during disasters. These prescriptions are valuable, but they remain embedded in a technocratic lens that reduces climate vulnerability to an economic shock requiring efficiency upgrades. Consequently, the political economy that generates vulnerability in the first place remains largely unexplored.
Political economy factors mediate the effects of climate-induced disasters in Pakistan. Agricultural and real estate markets operate in a way that squeezes the poor out of resilient and high-value land, forcing them to live in vulnerable areas. Additionally, a system of patronage leads to flood relief supplies being primarily directed to politically connected constituencies.
The elite capture of climate finance diverts adaptation funds into showcase projects that yield little benefit for vulnerable communities. Moreover, in many cases, the construction or breaching of flood protection embankments is driven by the interests of economically or politically influential families. The WB report falls short of establishing that these are not merely administrative inefficiencies, but rather deliberate outcomes of entrenched power structures.
Unless governance is restructured to serve citizens, every new climate disaster will drag millions back into destitution
A localised understanding of Pakistan’s climate crises reveals that for households on the margins, the issue is not the percentage of national output, but survival itself. However, the WB report primarily frames climate costs in terms of GDP losses, overlooking this crucial aspect: climate change is, first and foremost, a justice issue that threatens food security, health, dignity, and the right to a livable environment. The report subsumes these lived experiences into aggregate statistics, thereby diluting the urgency of the predicament.
The report places major emphasis on cash transfers as the primary adaptation and social protection tool. This claim also warrants examination. Undoubtedly, rapid payments during crises help prevent hunger; however, the structural drivers of vulnerability remain largely untouched.
The most urgent reforms should focus on land use, water governance, and urban planning. Considering the disappointing pace of global climate mitigation efforts, Pakistan is likely to continue experiencing cycles of floods, droughts, and smog. Each new shock would push millions back into poverty; thus, safety nets should be seen as cushions to mitigate the fall, but they do not build the ladder out.
Pakistan requires a climate governance model driven by localised knowledge. It must embed equity at its core and ensure that adaptation finance is transparent and insulated from elite capture. The government must integrate climate risk assessments into development planning so that political convenience does not take precedence over climate imperatives.
Community-level resilience initiatives, such as reforestation, watershed management, and safe housing schemes, demand robust and empowered local communities. Moreover, the international dimension cannot be ignored, as Pakistan’s vulnerability is tied to transboundary water flows and regional climate dynamics. Considering Pakistan’s complex security relations with Afghanistan and India, ignoring this dimension risks turning water scarcity into the next flashpoint while climate extremes accelerate.
The WB report serves as a reminder that climate change could erode gains made in poverty reduction. However, if climate resilience is reduced to mere cash transfers and piecemeal agricultural programmes, Pakistan will continue lurching from one disaster to the next. To reclaim prosperity, the state must confront the entrenched interests that profit from vulnerability and prevent equitable distribution of resources. Unless governance is restructured to serve citizens, every new climate disaster will drag millions back into destitution. The choice is stark: reclaim prosperity through justice and equity, or risk permanent relapse into climate vulnerability.