The lack of rain in parts of the country, including the capital Islamabad, this winter has been attributed to climate change. Like other countries, Pakistan is also being affected by the negative effects. According to the Global Climate Change Index, Pakistan ranks 31st among the countries affected by the effects of climate change. Due to the effects of climate change, where temperatures are increasing, most areas of Pakistan, including Islamabad, are waiting for rain this winter. Rashid Bilal, Deputy Director of Drought at the Meteorological Department, says that due to the effects of climate change, the rain cycle is being affected across the country, due to which the rains that occurred at the beginning of winter have not yet occurred, whereas the rain cycle that occurred in the past has now changed. In the last three to four years, the winter rains used to start at the end of December. In 2024, the rain cycle changed and the first winter rains occurred in January, while this year the rains have not yet started. Rashid Bilal further said that the country has received 40 percent less rain in its thirty-year history.
There have been three spells of rain and snowfall this winter, but their impact has been limited to the mountainous and northern areas. While the plains of Sindh and Punjab, including the Pothar region, have been deprived of rain. The Deputy Director further said that according to the forecast of the Meteorological Department, the second phase of the winter rains will be drier than the first phase, which means that there will be less rain in the winter and its impact will be on the rainy areas that depend on rainwater, which will harm agriculture. Last year, due to less rain, the heat of the sun in February and March was unusually intense. Due to less rain, the duration of the cold will be shorter, and due to the increase in temperature, summer will come earlier this year.
The Meteorological Department has also issued an advisory regarding drought, according to which due to the recent spell of rain in the country, there has not been sufficient rain in the plains of the country, which has increased the drought conditions. Pakistan has received less than forty percent of the normal rainfall. From September 1, 2024 to January 15, 2025, Sindh received 52 percent, Balochistan 45 percent, and Punjab 42 percent of the rainfall.
Meteorologists have warned that due to the decrease in rainfall, there is a fear of drought in southern Punjab and Balochistan this year
Talking about the effects of climate change and its prevention, Dr. Ijaz Ahmed, a climate change expert and Senior Program Fellow at the Institute of Urbanism, says that the problem of climate change is a global problem, the cause of which is industrial development in the world. Due to the effects of climate change, temperatures have started changing, which has affected the weather system. Pakistan's share in pollution is one percent, while it is more among the countries affected by the effects of climate change, the main reason for which is Pakistan's geography. Due to the effects of climate change, either there is a lot of rain or there is no rain.
Along with this, there is a change in cyclones, due to which the rainfall has been less than normal since September. Due to the effects of climate change, dry cold is increasing, due to which patients with various diseases are suffering. Along with the increase, the temperature is changing. Climate change experts say that the problem of food security may increase this year due to the decrease in rainfall. Due to the lack of rainfall, there may be a shortage of wheat, while crops in the Pothar region depend on rainwater, but due to the decrease in rainfall, crop production is not happening as expected. Meteorologists have warned that due to the decrease in rainfall, there is a fear of drought in southern Punjab and Balochistan this year.
Prime Minister's Coordinator for Climate Change Romina Khurshid says that drought, floods, and other natural disasters are increasing due to climate change, which is affecting agriculture and production. She said that drought and climate change pose serious threats to agriculture, which is not only causing food shortages but also increasing water shortages.
Overall, a slight tendency for slightly below-normal rainfall is anticipated in Northern KP, Northern Punjab, and Kashmir during February 2025. In contrast, the southern regions are likely to experience rainfall that is closer to normal, with a reduced negative anomaly as per the region's climatological patterns.