President Trump’s vision of world politics reflects the great power politics of 1926. Before the idea that ‘history repeats itself’, it echoes the trends and transformations of the past in the words and actions of the leading world elite. The international liberal order has been under assault by fragmenting forces over the last few years; it is neither liberal nor an order.
In the post–Second World War era, the United States established and promoted the rules-based order brick by brick. The upheavals of the first half of the twentieth century resulted in the most destructive wars in recorded human history. As a bitter lesson from these catastrophic wars, world leaders turned towards peace and development.
The United States replaced the Europeans as the dominant power and, as the world leader, promoted institutionalism and multilateralism in the security and economic spheres. Since 1945, there has been no major conflict in the world; credit goes to the United States. However, Trump’s ‘unilateralist’ approach to state affairs and foreign policy is shaking the decades-old stable international system.
From the unfair imposition of tariffs on like-minded and competitor states to the United States’ withdrawal from several international commitments, he is seriously damaging the system’s performance. His policy choices are serving neither the United States nor the world at large.
Today, world politics bears certain parallels to the dynamics and characteristics of state relations during the interwar period, particularly in 1926. The weakening international order, the rise of nationalism among the great powers, the ineffective League of Nations, the expansionist policies of Japan and Germany, United States isolationism, economic difficulties, and protectionism were the norms of the time. By supplementing one another, these factors led to the decay of the world order and the miseries of the Second World War.
Trump entered the White House with the MAGA slogan, which is embedded in the hyper-nationalism of its architect. For him, United States interest means imposing unjustified tariffs ranging from 10 to 15 per cent on goods from other states; turning economic interdependence into ‘weaponised interdependence’; earlier this year withdrawing the United States from 66 international organisations, conventions, and treaties through executive orders; the abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro along with his wife in January; and threatening to annex Greenland and acquire Canada.
The end of the United States/Israel war against Iran could redefine the international system, yet its ultimate shape will depend on how the great powers, particularly China, respond
Launching and backing Israel’s illegal war against Iran is the most serious misadventure of President Trump this year. This war is impacting global security and the economy. The war is causing the deaths of hundreds of Iranians, as well as a significant number of American soldiers, and Israeli civilian and military casualties. Its impact on the global economy is even more adverse, resulting in a global surge in oil prices of up to 25 per cent and fluctuating stock markets worldwide.
This conflict has already caused the suspension of about a fifth of global crude oil and natural gas supply. Moreover, it is causing high inflation and eroding purchasing power worldwide. If the war continues and escalates into a trans-regional conflict, it would further fragment the fragile world order. The functioning of the international system and the power dynamics would alter meaningfully.
The question arises: Is Trump taking the world into a global war on the pattern of twentieth-century world politics? How can the cascading consequences of Trump’s misadventures be avoided? Examining these and similar questions points towards peace and prosperity rather than decline and decay. Despite certain commonalities between the Trump era and the interwar period, a different outcome is expected. This requires cautious efforts by stakeholders at the United States national level and beyond.
In the case of the United States, domestic actors, namely the public, the media, Congress, and institutions, are required to move ahead and influence the president to work for MAGA, not to weaken the country. This is the real test of the United States nation since 1945: to lead from the front and save the international system which was created, promoted, and protected by its ancestors over the last eighty years. If Trump continues his course of action, it would trigger the United States’ decline.
On the global front, the European Union, Russia, and China must play a proactive role in putting guardrails in place to stop the misadventures of Trump. Indeed, the international order is in transition from unipolarity towards multipolarity. For a smooth transition, these stakeholders are required to use diplomatic offence, international institutions, and weaponised interdependence.
It is the right time for China to assume the leadership role of being the architect of peace and prosperity. This role demands a leading-the-way approach rather than diplomatic statements or condemnations. If Trump succeeds, it would be fatal for all stakeholders. The end of the United States/Israel war against Iran could redefine the international system, yet its ultimate shape will depend on how the great powers, particularly China, respond.