A new global analysis released at the COP30 climate summit in Belém warns that countries are failing to tackle one of the most urgent challenges in the fight against climate change, protecting and restoring forests. Instead, governments are focusing on large-scale land-based carbon removal projects that experts say are unrealistic and could harm ecosystems and vulnerable communities.
The ‘Land Gap 2025’ report, led by researchers at the University of Melbourne, shows that most national climate plans submitted under the Paris Agreement still prioritize carbon removal schemes such as tree planting and bioenergy production over practical measures to stop deforestation and forest degradation. The report says this approach is not achievable at the proposed scale and poses serious risks to Indigenous peoples, local communities, and small farmers whose lives depend on forest lands.
“Why are so many countries ignoring forest protection as a key pillar of climate targets?” asked Kate Dooley, the report’s lead author. “They live in a world where heavy debt burdens and industry-friendly tax and trade policies force them to exploit forests to keep their economies afloat. Yet healthy forests are essential to healthy economies.”
The report identifies two major flaws in global climate strategies, the ‘land gap’ and the ‘forest gap.’ The land gap refers to the difference between the amount of land countries expect to use for carbon removal and what is realistically available. Researchers found that current climate pledges would require more than one billion hectares of land, an area larger than Australia, for carbon removal projects. The report warns that most of these carbon savings would take decades to appear and that such projects could threaten food security and the rights of Indigenous and rural people.
The forest gap refers to the growing distance between global promises to end deforestation by 2030 and the reality of national plans. Despite pledges made at COP28 in Dubai to halt and reverse forest loss, the report estimates that the world will still lose four million hectares of forests each year by 2030, with another 16 million hectares being degraded. This amounts to a total forest gap of 20 million hectares.
The authors argue that the root of the problem lies in the global economic system rather than a lack of finance. They point to debt, tax, and trade policies that pressure developing countries, particularly in the Global South, to exploit their natural resources to meet short-term economic needs. “The biggest threat to forests today is a global economic system that locks many countries into dependence on logging, mining, and industrial agriculture just to pay for basic necessities,” said Dr. Rebecca Ray from Boston University’s Global Development Policy Center. “Reshaping those rules could reduce pressure on forests and unlock funding for conservation.”
The report notes that financing initiatives such as the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) are important but inadequate. The TFFF is expected to raise about 3 to 4 billion dollars per year, while countries need an estimated 117 to 299 billion dollars annually to meet their 2030 forest protection goals.
To address these challenges, the ‘Land Gap 2025’ report outlines several reforms aimed at fixing the economic drivers of deforestation. Debt relief, it says, is essential because current repayment systems often push countries to expand logging, mining, and agriculture to generate revenue. The report highlights Cameroon as a case where austerity measures from the IMF have increased forest loss due to the expansion of hardwood production and farmland for cocoa and cotton. Debt relief efforts, if expanded, could give governments the financial space to adopt sustainable forest policies.
The report also calls for tax reforms to combat cross-border tax evasion and illicit financial flows that deprive developing countries of vital revenue. It highlights the proposed UN Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation as an opportunity to create a fairer global tax system. Brazil’s proposal for a global wealth tax that could generate 200 to 500 billion dollars annually is cited as a positive step.
In terms of trade, the report argues that current rules favor major commodity traders and encourage environmentally harmful industrial farming. It calls for trade reforms that promote sustainable food systems, empower smallholder farmers, and support local producers instead of reinforcing the power of large corporations.
Co-lead author Kate Horner urged world leaders at COP30 to face the deeper economic issues holding back climate action. “We will not make progress in the fight against climate change, especially in protecting forests, unless we address the fundamental elements of our economic system that are impeding change,” she said. Horner added that while reform will be difficult, ongoing efforts to challenge the status quo could pave the way for healthier economies, forests, and communities. She warned that the cost of inaction would be continued forest destruction and worsening climate impacts.