Only three percent of the sides that have a 100-run lead going into the third innings of a Test match have lost the game in the history of cricket. The figure rises to five percent in the current millennium. Pakistan’s batting capitulation on the final day at Edgaston would have increased that percentage ever so slightly.
Going into the final session on Day 3, Pakistan would’ve fancied their chances to force the right result against England on a pitch that was supposed to suit Yasir Shah better than Old Trafford. The spin off the turf never arrived and just over a day later Pakistan were left with 84 overs to survive. The tail managed to consume more than a quarter of these on the final day, but that couldn’t prevent Pakistan suffering a thrashing after a signature collapse by the middle order.
As discussed in this space over the past couple of weeks, Pakistan desperately needed runs and wickets from the top order and new ball bowlers. And when they finally got that, Yasir Shah and the middle order - those that had been hitherto performing - went missing.
Sami Aslam’s twin half-centuries were as unexpected as Asad Shafiq’s pair. Pakistan going from 124/3 to 125/7 on Day 5 was classic capitulation of the Pakistan of old - not the one that sees captain Misbah-ul-Haq come to the crease three down. As soon as Misbah edged one behind, England smelled blood.
To win at the Oval, Pakistan would have to do everything they did at Edgbaston, only more effectively
Beating one of the most formidable England line-ups in England was always going to be a steep ask, but after edging 9 days of cricket at Lord’s and Edgbaston, Pakistan would truly feel the heat, going into the Oval Test 2-1 down. But such are the margins between these two sides, as England lost a hard fought Test series 2-0 in the UAE last year.
By the time you read this, the first day of the fourth and final Test at Lord’s would already have been played out. Just like Edgbaston and Lord’s Pakistan absolutely need a good Day 1 to have any chance of leveling the series. As Old Trafford - and the final day at Edgbaston - proved, if England are given an inch they make a yard.
A 3-1 defeat in the series would be tough on Pakistan just like the 2-0 was hard for England to take last year. This is especially true after the highs of Lord’s. But such have been Pakistan’s fortunes since those historic moments on Day 5 at Lord’s that a win at Oval and a 2-2 series outcome would feel like a victory.
Younis Khan
To win at the Oval, Pakistan would have to do everything they did at Edgbaston, only more effectively and without the series-denting collapse of the final day. Both Sami Aslam and Azhar Ali would need to continue from where they left off at Edgbaston, with Misbah-ul-Haq and Asad Shafiq displaying their form from the first half of the series.
There’s a good chance Mohammed Hafeez might be dropped, while Younis Khan – the biggest disappointment for Pakistan on the tour – would need to come up with a series saving performance at the Oval. It’s safe to say both the top and the middle order would need to be at their best for Pakistan to level the Test series.
Sohail Khan
While Mohammed Amir has chipped in with wickets here and there, it’s safe to say that after Younis Khan, he has been the biggest disappointment of the series. This has been largely due to the billing before the series more than the way actual play has panned out. He was expected to rip through the England batting on his ‘redemption tour’, but Amir has watched Yasir Shah and Sohail Khan bowl the only two series-impacting spells that the Pakistani bowling line-up has offered.
But again, the stage is still set for Amir, Younis and company to produce that one performance that could help Pakistan draw the series in England - a result few would have predicted before the start of the tour.
It’s still all-to-play-for in London. Redemption is still up for grabs.
