Let us begin by anchoring a few key terms: hangover, arrogance, and denial.
As geopolitical transformations continue to unfold globally, from West to East, they usher in an era marked by wars and conflicts. This is largely because former empires and colonial powers find it difficult to come to terms with these shifts, for political, economic, and psychological reasons.
In my previous articles, I have highlighted two fundamental developments within this context: the rise of the East, led by China, and the re-emergence of Russia as a major military power in the Western theatre. These changes signal a broader ideological and economic transformation, namely, the increasing influence of socialist-communist political and economic models in contrast to Western-style democratic systems and free-market economies.
I have also explored Pakistan’s internal political dynamics in light of new media technologies, particularly social media, for which traditional political parties and leaders were largely unprepared. This technological disruption contributed to political instability beginning around 2014, when smartphones became widely accessible in Pakistan. While the parliamentary systems of Britain and the United States are showing signs of stress, the derivative versions of these models in Pakistan (and India) are likely to weaken further over time.
Concurrently, the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) and next-generation manufacturing in China, particularly through "dark factories", has fundamentally altered global trade and economic structures. This transformation is, in the view of many, the root cause of several current conflicts and possibly even a harbinger of a third world war.
In recent conflicts, such as the India-Pakistan war in May this year and the Iran-Israel confrontation in June, the strategic significance of cyber technologies and AI has been vividly demonstrated. Cyber attacks on critical Indian and Israeli infrastructure, the downing of 4.5 generation Rafale jets, and the misfiring of Israel’s Iron Dome missiles onto its own territory speak volumes about the evolving nature of warfare and how it will continue to change.
Over the past ten years, the West has largely existed in a state of denial, refusing to accept that it is no longer the undisputed global power bloc
Looking back historically, Western dominance over the world began with the Industrial Revolution. This marked the onset of colonisation. British and other European empires extracted cheap labour and raw materials from their colonies, upon which 20th-century Western economies were constructed. The West became both the manufacturing centre and the primary consumer market. The United States, shielded from the major conflict zones across the Atlantic, benefited greatly. Its industrial growth was fuelled by the forced importation of African slaves for labour in coal mines and factories, laying the foundations of its powerful industrial base. This allowed the United States to develop into an economic powerhouse before eventually recognising the moral unacceptability of practices such as slavery and child labour.
The world entered the 20th century with two catastrophic world wars.
What began with the Industrial Revolution reached a climax with the First World War (1914 to 1918), followed by the Russian Revolution (1917), the Treaty of Versailles, the creation of the Weimar Republic, and the eventual rise of the Nazi Party, culminating in the Second World War in 1945.
The period from 1914 to 1945 witnessed the extensive integration of new technologies into warfare, including the strategic use of film as a medium of psychological warfare during this prolonged period of conflict. The United States capitalised on Europe's vulnerability and, under the guise of rescuing the continent from Nazi occupation, introduced various systems and alliances to cement its influence in European and even British affairs. While NATO guaranteed Europe's security against the perceived Soviet threat, it effectively deprived the continent of an independent foreign and defence policy. Over time, European nations became increasingly dependent on the United States to the extent that many significantly downsized their own defence capabilities.
On the economic front, British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher (1979 to 1990) introduced a policy of economic liberalisation, later termed "Thatcherism", with far-reaching consequences. Her economic policies focused on free markets, privatisation, deregulation, and the weakening of trade unions. This neoliberal shift led to the collapse of traditional British industries such as coal, steel, and manufacturing, particularly in the North, resulting in mass unemployment and long-term regional decline. Her policies favoured finance and services, thereby deepening economic inequality. Globally, Thatcher's model influenced similar reforms in the United States under Ronald Reagan and across parts of Europe. These shifts contributed to widespread deindustrialisation in Western economies, as manufacturing moved to low-wage countries, leading to economic decline in industrial regions in both the US and Europe.
Let us not forget that following the Second World War, the façade of the welfare state was adopted by the West to counter the growing influence of Communism and Socialism in Britain, the United States, and other Western nations.
In summary, NATO and Thatcherism brought the West to its current juncture, challenged by China technologically and industrially, and threatened by Russia militarily. This shift began in 2014, as I have discussed in previous writings the Russian annexation of Crimea, the launch of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and the gradual shift in power from the Global North to the Global South. A decade on, global realities have undergone profound transformation.
Over the past ten years, the West has largely existed in a state of denial, refusing to accept that it is no longer the undisputed global power bloc. The G7 clings to an outdated perception of supremacy. Yet, by 2025, the cracks are visible: President Trump’s tariff war shows the anger and frustration, a Europe left exposed and unsheltered by NATO, and a continent now being forced to raise defence spending to 5 percent of GDP.
Time is moving fast, while the West remains gripped by the hangover of the last century. Equally disoriented are many in the Global South, still looking westward in confusion, intoxicated by the remnants of Western prestige.