Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are set to reach an all-time high in 2025, underscoring the world’s slow progress in curbing climate change despite a decade of pledges and technological advances. According to new data from the Global Carbon Project, fossil fuel emissions are projected to rise by 1.1 percent, hitting 38.1 billion tonnes of CO₂ this year. the highest level ever recorded.
The findings, released in the 2025 Global Carbon Budget and published alongside a paper in Nature, show that while renewable energy adoption is accelerating, it remains insufficient to offset growing global energy demand. “With CO₂ emissions still increasing, keeping global warming below 1.5°C is no longer plausible,” said Professor Pierre Friedlingstein of the University of Exeter, who led the study. He warned that the remaining carbon budget of 170 billion tonnes could be exhausted by 2030 if emissions continue at the current pace.
Researchers say decarbonisation is occurring in many parts of the world, but too slowly to counter the expansion of fossil fuel use. The report shows that global energy demand continues to rise, driven by population growth, industrialization, and extreme weather events that increase energy consumption.
The study found that coal, oil, and gas all contributed to the 2025 increase, with emissions from coal up 0.8 percent, oil up 1 percent, and natural gas up 1.3 percent. Despite significant growth in renewables, fossil fuels still account for the majority of global energy consumption.
“The evidence is clear: clean technologies are now cost-effective compared to fossil alternatives, yet emissions continue to rise,” said Glen Peters from Norway’s CICERO Center for International Climate Research. “Ten years after the Paris Agreement, countries must do far more to meet their commitments.”
The Global Carbon Budget 2025 also highlights a worrying trend, the planet’s natural carbon sinks, such as forests and oceans, are weakening due to climate change. Since 1960, climate-related changes have reduced the ability of land and ocean sinks to absorb carbon by 8 percent.
This year, the end of the 2023–24 El Niño brought some recovery to these natural absorbers, with the global land sink returning to pre-El Niño levels. However, the report warns that deforestation and ecosystem degradation are eroding long-term resilience.
Professor Julia Pongratz of Ludwig-Maximilian University in Munich noted that while deforestation rates in the Amazon have dropped to their lowest level since 2014, large-scale fires in 2024 showed “how sensitive ecosystems remain if we do not also limit global warming.”
The report provides a detailed regional picture. China, the world’s largest emitter, is projected to see emissions rise by 0.4 percent, a slower pace than in previous years thanks to rapid renewable energy growth. India’s emissions are expected to rise by 1.4 percent, partly due to an early monsoon that reduced cooling demand and a surge in solar and wind generation.
In contrast, emissions in the United States are projected to grow by 1.9 percent in 2025 after several years of decline, largely due to colder weather increasing heating demand. The European Union will see a small rise of 0.4 percent, while Japan’s emissions are expected to decline by 2.2 percent, consistent with its continued progress in energy efficiency and renewables.
Pakistan, though contributing less than 1 percent of global CO₂ emissions, remains among the most climate-vulnerable countries. According to data from the Global Carbon Budget 2025, emissions in South Asia, particularly in India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan have increased steadily due to rising energy demand and reliance on imported fossil fuels.
Energy experts in Pakistan warn that the country’s transition to cleaner energy sources has stalled amid financial constraints and policy delays. According to the Pakistan Economic Survey 2024–25, fossil fuels still account for around 64 percent of the national energy mix, with coal use rising sharply due to power shortages and high LNG prices.
“Pakistan’s emissions have grown by roughly 2.3 percent annually over the past decade,” said Dr. Muneeb Khan, an energy policy analyst based in Islamabad. “While our absolute emissions are small, our carbon intensity per unit of GDP remains high. The key issue is our dependence on imported oil and coal, which makes the economy both carbon-heavy and economically unstable.”
Recent data from the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) also shows that the share of renewable energy in Pakistan’s grid has remained below 6 percent, far short of the country’s 2030 target of 30 percent. Hydropower and nuclear energy have shown modest growth, but solar and wind projects have slowed due to lack of financing and grid integration challenges.
Globally, the report underscores that while total CO₂ emissions (including from land-use change) are projected to slightly decline to 42.2 billion tonnes in 2025, the decrease is too small to alter the trajectory of global warming. The concentration of CO₂ in the atmosphere is expected to reach 425.7 parts per million, up 52 percent from pre-industrial levels.
In South Asia, the effects of this trend are already visible. Pakistan has faced record-breaking heatwaves, melting glaciers, and intensified floods in recent years. Experts warn that even with modest national emissions, the country will suffer disproportionately from global warming due to its fragile water and agricultural systems.
“The science is clear: as we approach 1.5 °C, rainfall is becoming more extreme, triggering multiple types of flooding. Pakistan is among the most climate-vulnerable nations, but it emits less than 1 percent of global greenhouse-gas emissions,” said Dr. Fahad Saeed, climate scientist at Climate Analytics, Pakistan (Climate Analytics, 2024).
The report concludes that the global carbon budget to limit warming to 1.5°C is “virtually exhausted.” At current emission rates, the world has just four years before crossing that threshold.
Professor Corinne Le Quéré from the University of East Anglia called for “sustained and deep global reductions.” She noted that 35 countries have managed to cut emissions while growing their economies, twice as many as a decade ago, but the global trend remains fragile.
“The emerging impacts of climate change on carbon sinks are deeply worrying,” Le Quéré said. “We are seeing that even as we act, the window for limiting warming is closing fast.”