As has been too often the case at the World Cup, this piece is being written before the culmination of Pakistan’s match. Clearly the organizers didn’t keep this column in mind while scheduling Pakistan’s matches at the World Cup!
Even so, where in the previous weeks Pakistan’s position has been relatively more apparent for the piece in this space at press time, this time around the situation is intriguingly poised. Pakistan are 86 for 2 in 20 overs, chasing the 238 set by New Zealand, knowing that a win puts them in a great position to make it to the final four. Conversely, a loss would set up Pakistan’s early exit.
With Australia having already qualified, should New Zealand beat Pakistan they would also make it to the semis. Should India beat the West Indies, they would have made it to the knockout stage as well, by the time you read this.
While Sri Lanka and Bangladesh are still in contention for a semifinal berth as well, Pakistan’s hopes have largely been bolstered by England’s stutters. The hosts, who were pretournament favourites, have now lost back to back matches against Sri Lanka and Australia. England now need to win their last two matches, against India and New Zealand, to guarantee a semifinal place.
Essentially it’s a four-horse race for the fourth position between Pakistan, England, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. Intriguingly, that would remain the case, even if Pakistan lose to New Zealand.
England have 8 points from seven matches, Bangladesh 7 from seven matches, Sri Lanka 6 from six matches and Pakistan 5 from six matches, with the New Zealand match yet to be factored in. That means losses for England against India and New Zealand – not outlandish by any stretch of the imagination, especially given their current form – would mean that 9 points might be enough to ensure semifinal qualification.
For that to work for Pakistan, neither Sri Lanka nor Bangladesh can win more than a single match. With Bangladesh and Pakistan actually taking each other on in their final pool match, semifinal qualification could actually boil down to that contest.
Pakistan have been clinging on to such hopes since their loss against India. Where England’s defeats well and truly brought them back into the contest, their own comprehensive win over South Africa signaled turning of the corner – one of the ‘tigers’ fame.
If they have got the better of New Zealand as well, then Pakistan would be traversing the kind of run that makes truly dangerous and world competitions. Again, not knowing the final result means that one can’t get ahead of oneself, but back to back wins for Pakistan – for the first time this calendar year – would make the side dangerous for any opponent.
Pakistan’s next two opponents are Afghanistan and Bangladesh. Afghanistan haven’t been able to muster any points at the World Cup, and shouldn’t cause much damage to a Pakistani side in a must-win scenario either way.
Again, that Bangladesh contest could be spicy, especially if England decide to conjure the biggest bottling act even in their choke-laden history. However, with two of Sri Lanka’s remaining fixtures against West Indies and South Africa – two sides already out of contention – they might be in the mix as well, come the end of the pool matches.
Pakistan’s turnaround in the past match-and-a-half has been spearheaded by two star performances. First by Haris Sohail against South Africa, who played the kind of innings that Pakistan have needed in the middle-order but have struggled to find anyone capable of pulling it off – especially on a semi-regular basis. Second by Shaheen Afridi, who has resoundingly made a comeback into the side, at the expense of the out of form Hasan Ali.
It will still be all to play for by the time you read this. But Pakistan’s hopes would be much stronger if they’ve managed successive wins.
