Let’s chew on a new conspiracy theory. It goes something like this:
The Miltablishment has reviewed its Political Engineering Design and finds that it is woefully short on expectations. Imran Khan’s parliamentary team is nothing short of a disaster. Worse, because its ownership falls squarely on the shoulders of the Miltablishment, it is bringing it into disrepute. Something needs to be done quickly before it all goes down the tube. A redesign is proposed. Imran Khan may throw up his hands in despair, claim that he is being thwarted from reform, dissolve the Assemblies, call fresh elections, and ask the people to give him a two-thirds mandate so that he can do the job he was ordained by Allah to do. A caretaker set-up of technocrats is firmed up. It imposes a Financial Emergency and requests the Supreme Court to allow a postponement of the elections until the country is out of the crisis (or until Imran Khan is somehow enabled to sweep the elections). In the meanwhile, NAB is spurred to knock out all the Zardaris, Bhuttos, Sharifs and their lieutenants so that the field is cleared for him. As a prelude to the redesign, the existing local government in Punjab – which is choc a bloc full of PMLN supporters — is dissolved by the passing of the new local government bill (which targets new elections a year hence) and the province is fully handed over to ever-loyal bureaucrats to assist in the project.
This theory is lent weight by one significant development. Instead of focusing on governance, Imran Khan has suddenly taken to travelling across the country to areas where the PTI is thin and addressing sizeable crowds herded into compounds by the bureaucracy, there to breathe fire and venom against the leaders of the PMLN, PPP and JUIF, announce new local development grants and projects. This is the sort of canvassing one does before an election, not after.
What if Justice Asif Saeed Khosa and his colleagues reject the feelers and are not ready to play ball? Well then, let’s check out Plan B. It goes something like this:
Ideally, a Presidential system with Imran Khan as President and empowered non-party local governments at the bottom would best suit the Miltablishment. That is the formula enjoyed by all our military dictators in the past. Such a system can be introduced via the sort of Yes/No Referendum employed by Generals Zia ul Haq and Pervez Musharraf. The Constitution requires both the Senate and the National Assembly to pass such a resolution by a majority. But the Senate is currently in opposition hands and will shoot down any such attempt. So Plan B is to install pro-Miltablishment provincial CMs coupled with technocrats and bureaucrats in all core ministries as advisors/special assistants/secretaries/IGPs etc and keep the ball rolling until the next Senate elections two years hence when the PTI can muster a majority in the Senate and introduce the Presidential system if necessary.
On paper, these political machinations seem do-able. After all, the Militablishment is all powerful and the opposition is divided and its leadership has been backed to the wall. But serious questions can be raised about the desirability of political engineering based on eliminating the opposition parties and setting up a one-party Miltablishment dictatorship at a time when the country is passing through its most acute economic crisis and is threatened by India, Afghanistan and Iran on three borders, an overly aggressive and interventionist United States and an unduly restrictive IMF. One would have thought that a national consensus comprising all the political parties binding the nation together would have served the Miltablishment better at such a juncture instead of a bitterly divided polity. Indeed, we might pause to consider what might have happened if the conflict with India in February had escalated to a point where the Miltablishment-government would have sought the opposition’s support and found it lacking – at the very least the PTI government would have been the “fall guy” for any negative consequences arising out of it.
In fact, we may realistically predict the following developments in the next two years or so. First, the economic crisis is going to leave most Pakistanis angry and alienated from the PTI government. A single spark could light a prairie fire. Second, The US-Saudi-Israeli plan for regime change in Iran is going to embroil Pakistan in its blowback by strengthening the India-Iran axis. Third, the US exit from Afghanistan is predicted to be humiliating, Washington will accuse Pakistan of facilitating its debacle and plan to take revenge by further cozying up to India. Fourth, the re-election of Narendra Modi will lay the ground for further destabilization of Pakistan. At times like these, nations need all their hands on deck.
One last point for consideration. An anti-opposition, anti-corruption agenda is fine during elections. Indeed, it is necessary in times of economic growth when opportunities for corruption are great. But when Pakistan is in the political and economic doldrums, political consensus and business confidence are essential to pull it out of the crisis.
The Miltablishment has reviewed its Political Engineering Design and finds that it is woefully short on expectations. Imran Khan’s parliamentary team is nothing short of a disaster. Worse, because its ownership falls squarely on the shoulders of the Miltablishment, it is bringing it into disrepute. Something needs to be done quickly before it all goes down the tube. A redesign is proposed. Imran Khan may throw up his hands in despair, claim that he is being thwarted from reform, dissolve the Assemblies, call fresh elections, and ask the people to give him a two-thirds mandate so that he can do the job he was ordained by Allah to do. A caretaker set-up of technocrats is firmed up. It imposes a Financial Emergency and requests the Supreme Court to allow a postponement of the elections until the country is out of the crisis (or until Imran Khan is somehow enabled to sweep the elections). In the meanwhile, NAB is spurred to knock out all the Zardaris, Bhuttos, Sharifs and their lieutenants so that the field is cleared for him. As a prelude to the redesign, the existing local government in Punjab – which is choc a bloc full of PMLN supporters — is dissolved by the passing of the new local government bill (which targets new elections a year hence) and the province is fully handed over to ever-loyal bureaucrats to assist in the project.
This theory is lent weight by one significant development. Instead of focusing on governance, Imran Khan has suddenly taken to travelling across the country to areas where the PTI is thin and addressing sizeable crowds herded into compounds by the bureaucracy, there to breathe fire and venom against the leaders of the PMLN, PPP and JUIF, announce new local development grants and projects. This is the sort of canvassing one does before an election, not after.
What if Justice Asif Saeed Khosa and his colleagues reject the feelers and are not ready to play ball? Well then, let’s check out Plan B. It goes something like this:
Ideally, a Presidential system with Imran Khan as President and empowered non-party local governments at the bottom would best suit the Miltablishment. That is the formula enjoyed by all our military dictators in the past. Such a system can be introduced via the sort of Yes/No Referendum employed by Generals Zia ul Haq and Pervez Musharraf. The Constitution requires both the Senate and the National Assembly to pass such a resolution by a majority. But the Senate is currently in opposition hands and will shoot down any such attempt. So Plan B is to install pro-Miltablishment provincial CMs coupled with technocrats and bureaucrats in all core ministries as advisors/special assistants/secretaries/IGPs etc and keep the ball rolling until the next Senate elections two years hence when the PTI can muster a majority in the Senate and introduce the Presidential system if necessary.
On paper, these political machinations seem do-able. After all, the Militablishment is all powerful and the opposition is divided and its leadership has been backed to the wall. But serious questions can be raised about the desirability of political engineering based on eliminating the opposition parties and setting up a one-party Miltablishment dictatorship at a time when the country is passing through its most acute economic crisis and is threatened by India, Afghanistan and Iran on three borders, an overly aggressive and interventionist United States and an unduly restrictive IMF. One would have thought that a national consensus comprising all the political parties binding the nation together would have served the Miltablishment better at such a juncture instead of a bitterly divided polity. Indeed, we might pause to consider what might have happened if the conflict with India in February had escalated to a point where the Miltablishment-government would have sought the opposition’s support and found it lacking – at the very least the PTI government would have been the “fall guy” for any negative consequences arising out of it.
In fact, we may realistically predict the following developments in the next two years or so. First, the economic crisis is going to leave most Pakistanis angry and alienated from the PTI government. A single spark could light a prairie fire. Second, The US-Saudi-Israeli plan for regime change in Iran is going to embroil Pakistan in its blowback by strengthening the India-Iran axis. Third, the US exit from Afghanistan is predicted to be humiliating, Washington will accuse Pakistan of facilitating its debacle and plan to take revenge by further cozying up to India. Fourth, the re-election of Narendra Modi will lay the ground for further destabilization of Pakistan. At times like these, nations need all their hands on deck.
One last point for consideration. An anti-opposition, anti-corruption agenda is fine during elections. Indeed, it is necessary in times of economic growth when opportunities for corruption are great. But when Pakistan is in the political and economic doldrums, political consensus and business confidence are essential to pull it out of the crisis.