Who will form government in Balochistan?

Travelling to Balochistan feels like taking a trip to ancient times. The province has been the neglected child of Pakistan in all aspects. Recently, in the run up to the 2018 elections, no major leader visited the province for campaigning. The abandonment by mainstream ‘federal’ parties was further cemented when not a single mainstream party held a noteworthy public meeting to signify its presence there. Due to this neglect, in the past and in the present, the political system of the province has never actually developed.

This continuous rejection by mainstream parties has created two categories of Baloch politicians. The first category represents politicians propped up by the establishment to give a semblance of political participation and are usually just pretty dolls in the Dollhouse that is the Balochistan Assembly. The second category includes the tribal Pakhtuns or Baloch nationalists and sardars (tribal chiefs) who believe that their presence in the parliament is a matter of honour for their tribe or ethnicity. Unfortunately, and regardless of their background, history has shown that the political leadership of this province has failed its people, as it remains steeped in poverty and lacking a voice in national politics.

Nonetheless, the failure of governments has not dissuaded voters from trying to bring positive change by using their rights of franchise. The elections in 2013 produced the most dramatic results for the Balochistan Assembly, when for the first time the voters brought into power, with considerable strength, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) to represent in the center and nationalist parties Pashtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PKMAP) to represent Pakhtuns and National Party to represent the Baloch. For the first time, Balochistan appeared to have the perfect mix of a federal party and its indigenous nationalist sentiments represented by regional parties. However, the complete lack of performance by the parties was so obvious that in 2018, voters kicked all of them out entirely. The PML-N secured only 28,000 votes in total for all provincial seats combined. National Party followed with 33,000 votes. To put the matter in perspective, both these parties which ruled an entire province for five years secured lesser votes in the whole province than Pakistan Human Party, a one-person party in Pakpattan which lost elections coming in at third place in one constituency.

There is a strong likelihood of there being a strong coalition government in the province and the real competition would be in the distribution of ministries

The results of general elections demonstrated how the people voted aggressively against those who could not deliver and brought in altogether new candidates. The majority seats were won by the newly-formed Balochistan Awami Party which carries a reputation for being a cantonment-engineered party meant to win these elections and with 15 provincial seats, it has fulfilled its objective. Following in second place with eight seats is the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) which has taken the majority of the Pakhtun-region seats in the place of PKMAP. In third place, with six seats is the smaller but considerably formidable Balochistan National Party (BNP). BNP is led by Sardar Akhtar Mengal who is not only the last remaining hope for Baloch nationalist movements but also carries a legacy of being a strong sardar, perhaps the strongest name in Balochistan’s politics after Nawab Akbar Bugti. The PTI, too, managed to get substantial provincial seats by securing five seats in the provincial assembly.

Sadly, the elections in Balochistan were marred by terrorism. In one incident, 131 people were killed in a suicide bombing on a BNP meeting. It was extremely hot on election day and many incidents of acute dehydration were reported across Balochistan. Yet the resilient people of Balochistan stepped out in record numbers to vote and the elections had a 45 percent turnout, which is the highest recorded to date.

Out with the Old

These voters gave a mandate to new faces and the entire provincial assembly is composed of first-time MPAs, with the exception of Nawab Sanaullah Zehri former chief minister and member of the PML-N. There is a strong likelihood of there being a strong coalition government in the province and the real competition would be in the distribution of ministries. The only opposition parties are expected to be PML-N and PKMAP, with only one seat each out of a total of 55.

The person most likely to become the next chief minister is Jam Kamal of the BAP. Jam Kamal has a reputation of being honest, dynamic and financially clean, with a strong understanding of oil, coal and energy issues. He has previously been the minister of state for petroleum and has worked on several oil deals. However, his prior record is unlikely to be useful in the position of chief minister unless Balochistan magically hits upon massive oil reserves near the Iran border. In that case, Balochistan would find itself in an exceptionally ‘lucky’ position with just the right man to deal with foreign companies, unlike previous fiascos such as the Riko Dik problem created by Nawab Aslam Riasani. Jam Kamal is likely to have strong support from his cabinet in keeping his office against Nawab Akhtar Mengal, provided he turns a blind eye to their conduct.

The PTI has performed much better than expected in Balochistan for both parliaments. In the center, it will have Qasim Suri who has worked in Balochistan for the last 15 years and might be rewarded with a ministry. Another ministry will be doled out to BAP which will be a provincial and federal coalition partner. However BNP, a provincial partner might not be a federal partner. According to sources, after the 2018 election results, Nawab Akhtar Mengal travelled straight to Islamabad and began the long wait for a call from Imran Khan. Imran Khan did not visit the nawab waiting in Balochistan House for over a week and with this oversight, the PTI might have lost the support of the BNP in the federal government as a coalition partner. Despite what could be deemed an insult, Nawab Mengal will still nominate Khan for premiership. Apart from the BNP, the MMA which will also be a provincial partner with daggers drawn with PTI on the federal front.

Despite opposition from most provincial parties at a federal level, a PTI-led government can still be a boon for Balochistan. The PTI has consistently promised that it will champion the rights of Balochistan by giving special economic attention to the poorest region of Pakistan. It has further committed, under its 100 day agenda, to undertake a complete reconciliation with separatist factions in Balochistan. These problems have plagued the province for decades and their resolution would certainly have tremendous benefits for Balochistan. But the most important aspect of PTI’s campaign that led to the youth of Balochistan aligning with the party was the anti-corruption rhetoric. Extreme corruption has wiped out any semblance of merit in the province, leading to despondency and hopelessness. The view that public money will be spent on the people themselves instead of being pocketed by a few individuals could go a long way in poverty reduction, political participation and even quell anti-state sentiments. Whether the PTI will actually perform in the center will eventually have a huge impact on the province.

Balochistan remains a land of blanks that still need to be filled. The results general elections 2018 were rejected by the NP, the PKMAP and the BNP as being highly undemocratic. Yet, these parties themselves have not held intra-party elections, depriving any chance of intra-party democracy and resultantly had their own workers campaign against them. The results of the elections brought forth new faces at the helm of affairs with no prior experience and severe lack of capacity. The last bastion of Baloch nationalism and sardari system stands as a possible means to lasting reconciliation with separatists but his involvement in federal affairs seems fleeting. Balochistan, like all of Pakistan, has voted on the personality and promises of just one man. If Imran Khan keeps his promises, Balochistan might finally see development for the first time. If he fails, Balochistan will stay on as the ruin that it is.

The writer is a barrister and a political activist