The general elections are ultimately one grand battle for a seat in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan. The fact that all power emanates from the capital makes the elections in Islamabad symbolically significant and a defining point for political conversation in the country. In the past, Islamabad has received a disproportionately high share of election coverage from the media but this year, one contest in Islamabad might be the most viewed election event of Pakistan’s history. For the 2018 election, Islamabad has received more than 200 submissions for its constituencies, which does not even include any provincial seat since Islamabad is the federal capital.
With an ever-increasing population, recent delimitations granted Islamabad an additional seat, bringing the total to number to three, namely NA-52, NA-53 and NA-54. Presently, the population of Islamabad is approximately 1.5 million with an eclectic mix of Punjabi, Pakhtun, Seriaki, Sindhi, Kashmiri and Baloch ethnicities. It is the most educated city of Pakistan with an 87 percent literacy rate with about 20 percent of the population having completed their bachelors. Also, the city has a larger than usual population of religious minorities with 10 percent of the residents being non-Muslims. These demographic factors play a significant role in the unique election process in the capital.
NA-54 – A colourful contest
One would hit upon the city’s first constituency, NA-54 when entering Islamabad from the motorway. This area roughly extends from the motorway toll plaza all the way to Faisal Mosque with Islamabad Expressway dividing it from the next constituency. This area comprises most of urban Islamabad and has a highly educated population. This year around a 100 candidates will compete in this constituency but the real battle will be between Asad Umer of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and Aqeel Anjum of Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N).
Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) will be fielding Raja Imran Ashraf, who is the brother of the former prime minister Raja Pervaiz Ashraf, but he is unlikely to get more than 7,000 votes. A traditionally strong candidate for this region is Mian Aslam of the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) who enjoys support from religious voters but this year his efforts will be dampened by a campaign being run by the Jamat-e-Islami’s former emir for Islamabad, Zubair Khan, who stands firmly against Mian Aslam and is breaking the Deobandi vote bank as an independent candidate.
On the other end of the political spectrum, we have Ismat Shahjahan of the Awami Workers Party whose message of equality resonates strongly with youth and women but is unlikely to garner much attention due to severe lack of funds. Awami Workers Party is recognised by the poorest regions of this constituency known as katchi abadis (informal settlements) as the only party that protected them from demolition and fought for the inhabitants all the way to the Supreme Court. However, this recognition is unlikely to translate into votes because elections are influenced by money, media and other tactics that bigger parties use.
PML-N Aqeel Anjum Khan was previously the MNA from this area from 2008-2013 but since then has fallen out of favour with the public because of his constant alleged involvement in land grabbing. Although he was arrested and is facing trial in many cases, he received a ticket from Nawaz Sharif for attending every hearing of the Panama Leaks case and organising anti-judiciary protests in Islamabad.
Against Aqeel Anjum is Asad Umer who is the defending MNA despite not even being from Islamabad. In recent times, Asad Umer has been out of media limelight because the PTI workers in Islamabad have riled up against him for lack of performance, his timid behaviour during the Panama Leaks case and his brother being Nawaz Sharif’s closest aide. He is, nevertheless, PTI’s choice because of his close ties to the capitalist elite and the military establishment. He has also been successful in creating a public perception of being a clean, educated, middle-class self-made leader. Since media is likely to play a huge role in these elections, Asad Umer will shine with his articulate speeches that are a direct contrast to his prime opponent who struggles to speak with clarity. The powerful Pir of Golra Sharif has also announced support for the PTI which means that Asad Umer can now strong arm any opponent with religious zealots at his disposal.
NA-53 – A clash of titans
The ultimate clash of titans will, however, take place in NA-53 where the fight for the crown will be fought literally at the throne. NA-53 is the capital of Pakistan encompassing the Parliament, Supreme Court and all the other institutions of Pakistan. This is bound to be the biggest fight in the 2018 elections with the former prime minister Khaqaan Abbassi fighting against the hopeful prime minister Imran Khan. Joining this Royal Rumble are a few mention-worthy candidates who are bound to get knocked out immediately but still add zest to the competition: People’s Party will be presenting Sibtul Hasan Bukhari who is former Chairman Nayyar Bukhari’s brother and will break the PTI’s anti-PML-N vote-bank by a few thousands, former MNA Ayesha Gulalai will be competing with her turban being the primary attraction, Muhammad Amjad known as the poultry feed king will be representing Mushraff’s APML and is likely to garner a few hundred staunch military supporters. On the left side of the spectrum the young and dynamic Ammar Rashid from Awami Workers Party who will be appealing to the educated youth to spread a message of egalitarianism.
When judging NA-53 one can be forgiven for thinking that Imran Khan is a sure winner against Khaqan Abbassi because of the media hype but the ground realities may surprise even the most optimistic PTI supporters who see NA-53 as Khan’s home since his Bani Gala residence falls in this area and he’s already organised demonstrations there. The PML-N has tactfully selected a very appropriate candidate for this seat because after the 2018 delimitations, this area was extended further towards Murree. Due to this change many members of the Abbassi family of Murree are now voters here, whereas Imran Khan has no family advantage. Imran Khan declared himself to be the candidate of this area after he first rejected the party workers’ choice - Chaudary Illyas Mehrban - and then attempted to appoint his friend Amir Kiyani. His choice was rejected by the local party leadership and therefore, reportedly to teach them a lesson, he decided to compete himself. Even at the time of writing this article local party leadership is persuading him to leave this seat due to significant chance of him losing. The rejection of his nomination papers as well as those of Khaqan Abbassi, by the Election Commission of Pakistan on technical grounds are unlikely to affect their chances as candidates can file appeals in tribunals where these issues can be addressed.
Amongst the power players in this constituency is the immensely influential Pir of Bari Imam who is in direct conflict with the PTI ever since Imran Khan chose Mufti Saeed, their opponent, to solemnise both his recent nikkahs. Another major Barelvi religious figure Pir Naqib Shah has recently had government-sponsored Umras in hopes of winning over his support. The Deobandi factions of Lal Masjid have also already announced support for the PML-N. Nevertheless, more than anyone else it is the civil servants working in the secretariat and the business owners of the locations, who are the majority voters in this area. These voters have developed an aversion to Imran Khan due to multiple dharnas that have affected their lives. Regardless of the outcome, the fight in this constituency will be the tale of legends and a true treat for democrats all over Pakistan.
NA-52 - For rich and poor
Whereas NA-54 and NA-53 have only a battle of two major players, NA-52 is going to be a tripartite battle featuring not only soft public opinion but also the traditional use of AK-47s, buses, coercion and distribution of hot chicken palao. NA-52 is an area of contradictions with a huge rural population in areas of Sihala and Rawat which is peppered with the posh housing societies of DHA, Gulberg Greens and others. It is the kind of constituency with some areas of poverty so abject that poor people wouldn’t have water to drink and yet only a short distance away the nouveau riche would dip into their swimming pools.
To fight for the votes of the poor and the rich, the PML-N has put forward Tariq Fazl Chaudary. The PTI chose Raja Khurram Nawaz and a strong entry was finally presented by the PPP in the form of Afzal Khokar. All three candidates have strong family connections and a demonstrated a history of leadership. Chaudary was the former Capital Administration and Development minister and used his position to ensure that all local union council leaders are loyal to him. He has strong support from the local government systems and has generated some goodwill by building a few roads and schools. He has defeated both the PPP and the PTI in the last two elections by reasonable margins.
The PTI has presented their Islamabad president Raja Khurram Nawaz as a second tier party leader to compete. Raja Khurram Nawaz is related to former minister Raja Basharat and is from the Raja family who are recognised as the original inhabitants of Islamabad. He is widely perceived as being middle class and therefore is thought of as a ‘clean’ candidate. The person shaking up these elections is Afzal Khokar from the PPP who is the former district naib-nazim of Rawalpindi and a scion of the Khokar family. The Khokar family is one of the strongest families of the capital with the likes of the minister Nawaz Khokar and the ‘don’ of Rawalpindi/Islamabad, Taji Khokar. As a result, it is difficult to predict election results which may hinge on multiple factors but the scribe is of the opinion that given the present trends and future media campaigning, Raja Khurram Nawaz of the PTI might be able to secure the seat.
Islamabad has an educated population with lesser family and ethnic bonds than any other region of Pakistan. Ideology should play a strong role in such demographics but we have witnessed that personalities continue to dominate the election process. It is safe to say that even in Islamabad the singular factor that influences elections more than any other is money. Despite giving the impression of popular elections, the reality of such elections is that they are popular auctions.
The writer is a barrister and a political activist based in Islamabad
With an ever-increasing population, recent delimitations granted Islamabad an additional seat, bringing the total to number to three, namely NA-52, NA-53 and NA-54. Presently, the population of Islamabad is approximately 1.5 million with an eclectic mix of Punjabi, Pakhtun, Seriaki, Sindhi, Kashmiri and Baloch ethnicities. It is the most educated city of Pakistan with an 87 percent literacy rate with about 20 percent of the population having completed their bachelors. Also, the city has a larger than usual population of religious minorities with 10 percent of the residents being non-Muslims. These demographic factors play a significant role in the unique election process in the capital.
NA-54 – A colourful contest
One would hit upon the city’s first constituency, NA-54 when entering Islamabad from the motorway. This area roughly extends from the motorway toll plaza all the way to Faisal Mosque with Islamabad Expressway dividing it from the next constituency. This area comprises most of urban Islamabad and has a highly educated population. This year around a 100 candidates will compete in this constituency but the real battle will be between Asad Umer of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and Aqeel Anjum of Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N).
Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) will be fielding Raja Imran Ashraf, who is the brother of the former prime minister Raja Pervaiz Ashraf, but he is unlikely to get more than 7,000 votes. A traditionally strong candidate for this region is Mian Aslam of the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) who enjoys support from religious voters but this year his efforts will be dampened by a campaign being run by the Jamat-e-Islami’s former emir for Islamabad, Zubair Khan, who stands firmly against Mian Aslam and is breaking the Deobandi vote bank as an independent candidate.
On the other end of the political spectrum, we have Ismat Shahjahan of the Awami Workers Party whose message of equality resonates strongly with youth and women but is unlikely to garner much attention due to severe lack of funds. Awami Workers Party is recognised by the poorest regions of this constituency known as katchi abadis (informal settlements) as the only party that protected them from demolition and fought for the inhabitants all the way to the Supreme Court. However, this recognition is unlikely to translate into votes because elections are influenced by money, media and other tactics that bigger parties use.
PML-N Aqeel Anjum Khan was previously the MNA from this area from 2008-2013 but since then has fallen out of favour with the public because of his constant alleged involvement in land grabbing. Although he was arrested and is facing trial in many cases, he received a ticket from Nawaz Sharif for attending every hearing of the Panama Leaks case and organising anti-judiciary protests in Islamabad.
Against Aqeel Anjum is Asad Umer who is the defending MNA despite not even being from Islamabad. In recent times, Asad Umer has been out of media limelight because the PTI workers in Islamabad have riled up against him for lack of performance, his timid behaviour during the Panama Leaks case and his brother being Nawaz Sharif’s closest aide. He is, nevertheless, PTI’s choice because of his close ties to the capitalist elite and the military establishment. He has also been successful in creating a public perception of being a clean, educated, middle-class self-made leader. Since media is likely to play a huge role in these elections, Asad Umer will shine with his articulate speeches that are a direct contrast to his prime opponent who struggles to speak with clarity. The powerful Pir of Golra Sharif has also announced support for the PTI which means that Asad Umer can now strong arm any opponent with religious zealots at his disposal.
NA-53 – A clash of titans
The ultimate clash of titans will, however, take place in NA-53 where the fight for the crown will be fought literally at the throne. NA-53 is the capital of Pakistan encompassing the Parliament, Supreme Court and all the other institutions of Pakistan. This is bound to be the biggest fight in the 2018 elections with the former prime minister Khaqaan Abbassi fighting against the hopeful prime minister Imran Khan. Joining this Royal Rumble are a few mention-worthy candidates who are bound to get knocked out immediately but still add zest to the competition: People’s Party will be presenting Sibtul Hasan Bukhari who is former Chairman Nayyar Bukhari’s brother and will break the PTI’s anti-PML-N vote-bank by a few thousands, former MNA Ayesha Gulalai will be competing with her turban being the primary attraction, Muhammad Amjad known as the poultry feed king will be representing Mushraff’s APML and is likely to garner a few hundred staunch military supporters. On the left side of the spectrum the young and dynamic Ammar Rashid from Awami Workers Party who will be appealing to the educated youth to spread a message of egalitarianism.
When judging NA-53 one can be forgiven for thinking that Imran Khan is a sure winner against Khaqan Abbassi because of the media hype but the ground realities may surprise even the most optimistic PTI supporters who see NA-53 as Khan’s home since his Bani Gala residence falls in this area and he’s already organised demonstrations there. The PML-N has tactfully selected a very appropriate candidate for this seat because after the 2018 delimitations, this area was extended further towards Murree. Due to this change many members of the Abbassi family of Murree are now voters here, whereas Imran Khan has no family advantage. Imran Khan declared himself to be the candidate of this area after he first rejected the party workers’ choice - Chaudary Illyas Mehrban - and then attempted to appoint his friend Amir Kiyani. His choice was rejected by the local party leadership and therefore, reportedly to teach them a lesson, he decided to compete himself. Even at the time of writing this article local party leadership is persuading him to leave this seat due to significant chance of him losing. The rejection of his nomination papers as well as those of Khaqan Abbassi, by the Election Commission of Pakistan on technical grounds are unlikely to affect their chances as candidates can file appeals in tribunals where these issues can be addressed.
Amongst the power players in this constituency is the immensely influential Pir of Bari Imam who is in direct conflict with the PTI ever since Imran Khan chose Mufti Saeed, their opponent, to solemnise both his recent nikkahs. Another major Barelvi religious figure Pir Naqib Shah has recently had government-sponsored Umras in hopes of winning over his support. The Deobandi factions of Lal Masjid have also already announced support for the PML-N. Nevertheless, more than anyone else it is the civil servants working in the secretariat and the business owners of the locations, who are the majority voters in this area. These voters have developed an aversion to Imran Khan due to multiple dharnas that have affected their lives. Regardless of the outcome, the fight in this constituency will be the tale of legends and a true treat for democrats all over Pakistan.
NA-52 - For rich and poor
Whereas NA-54 and NA-53 have only a battle of two major players, NA-52 is going to be a tripartite battle featuring not only soft public opinion but also the traditional use of AK-47s, buses, coercion and distribution of hot chicken palao. NA-52 is an area of contradictions with a huge rural population in areas of Sihala and Rawat which is peppered with the posh housing societies of DHA, Gulberg Greens and others. It is the kind of constituency with some areas of poverty so abject that poor people wouldn’t have water to drink and yet only a short distance away the nouveau riche would dip into their swimming pools.
To fight for the votes of the poor and the rich, the PML-N has put forward Tariq Fazl Chaudary. The PTI chose Raja Khurram Nawaz and a strong entry was finally presented by the PPP in the form of Afzal Khokar. All three candidates have strong family connections and a demonstrated a history of leadership. Chaudary was the former Capital Administration and Development minister and used his position to ensure that all local union council leaders are loyal to him. He has strong support from the local government systems and has generated some goodwill by building a few roads and schools. He has defeated both the PPP and the PTI in the last two elections by reasonable margins.
The PTI has presented their Islamabad president Raja Khurram Nawaz as a second tier party leader to compete. Raja Khurram Nawaz is related to former minister Raja Basharat and is from the Raja family who are recognised as the original inhabitants of Islamabad. He is widely perceived as being middle class and therefore is thought of as a ‘clean’ candidate. The person shaking up these elections is Afzal Khokar from the PPP who is the former district naib-nazim of Rawalpindi and a scion of the Khokar family. The Khokar family is one of the strongest families of the capital with the likes of the minister Nawaz Khokar and the ‘don’ of Rawalpindi/Islamabad, Taji Khokar. As a result, it is difficult to predict election results which may hinge on multiple factors but the scribe is of the opinion that given the present trends and future media campaigning, Raja Khurram Nawaz of the PTI might be able to secure the seat.
Islamabad has an educated population with lesser family and ethnic bonds than any other region of Pakistan. Ideology should play a strong role in such demographics but we have witnessed that personalities continue to dominate the election process. It is safe to say that even in Islamabad the singular factor that influences elections more than any other is money. Despite giving the impression of popular elections, the reality of such elections is that they are popular auctions.
The writer is a barrister and a political activist based in Islamabad