Data from the third quarter of 2015, compiled by a private think tank in Islamabad, suggests that while the number of casualties from violence has not seen a sharp decline, the focus of violence-related fatalities has shifted from civilians to militants. Military personnel and other law enforcement agency (LEA) members also make up for a large percentage of the casualties in the third quarter. The month of July saw a brief lull, with 265 lives lost to violence, but was immediately followed by August, the second bloodiest month in 2015 with 535 deaths, including Colonel (r) Shuja Khanzada, Punjab’s home minister.
The biggest indicators of change lie in Sindh. Karachi, the largest city and largest district in Pakistan, consistently took the top spot in terms of violence and fatalities. Target killings, robberies and muggings, and sectarian violence were the top contributors to violence in the city with a projected population of 24 million. Even at the height of Operation Zarb-e-Azb which targeted and eliminated hundreds of militants in the tribal region, Karachi district managed to top North Waziristan in terms of casualties.
However, 2015 has seen a steady decline in both the volume and severity of the violence that had besieged Karachi. For example, Karachi lost 2,029 lives to violence in 2014. In 2015’s first three quarters, Karachi has seen 358, 332 and 248 fatalities respectively. If the trend continues, by the end of 2015, Karachi would have reduced violence-related fatalities by nearly half, when compared to 2014. The sheer size of Karachi also has an incontrovertible impact on national statistics, depicting a receding trend of violence overall. This is despite some regions showing increased fatalities from violence – but their overall impact is minimal when juxtaposed against Karachi.
The other region that showed a decline in violence normally ranks as Pakistan’s second most violent –the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). FATA also saw a significant calm in the month of July, but again, August proved to be the second most violent month in 2015. The reduction in violence in FATA is minor compared to Karachi. However, the essential fact is that the two most violent regions in Pakistan have demonstrated a downward trend in the third quarter of the year, indicating that the efforts of the LEAs are finally beginning to yield demonstrable results in terms of increased safety for citizens.
On average, Punjab loses 25 souls to violence every month. However, in August of this year, the attack on the home minister resulted in doubling this figure, making it the bloodiest month for Punjab in 2015. The attack also showed a shift in focus of indigenous militant groups, and demonstrated their ability to strike in the home turf of the ruling party, the Pakistan Muslim League – Nawaz (PML-N). This attack also came on the heels of a police encounter which resulted in the deaths of Malik Ishaq and his two sons, the leader of Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, which claimed responsibility for the attack.
The third quarter did exhibit a significant decline in sectarian friction, especially when compared against the first and second quarters. The deaths resulting from sectarian strife were down by 70% from the second quarter and down by 90% from the first. Compared against the same time period from 2014, there is a near 90% reduction in sectarian violence.
The third quarter also saw attempts to reconcile with Baloch nationalists to bring them into the mainstream. The government announced a Rs 1.5 million package for insurgents who laid down their arms and announced that they are not opposed to the state of Pakistan. For the third quarter, Balochistan lost 267 people in 2013, 174 in 2014, and 188 in 2015. This is also indicative of the highly volatile nature of the political and insurgent strife in the province. Linearly, violence in Balochistan has only worsened since the start of 2015, with the last four months showing a steady decline.
The third quarter saw an increased push by security and intelligence agencies to try and curb foreign involvement in Pakistan. Several alleged operatives of the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), the premier Indian intelligence agency, were arrested from various parts of Pakistan. A positive development is the increased push against instigators and proliferators of hate speech. While the LEAs and other security agencies shifted their focus to sectarian outfits, militants have predominantly shifted focus to government and military officials. Finally, the ratio of fatalities is now heavily tilted towards for militants and miscreants, demonstrating sporadic success in the state’s war on terror.
The author is a journalist and a Senior Research Fellow at the Center for Research and Security Studies, Islamabad. He holds a Master’s degree in strategic communications from Ithaca College, NY.
Email: zeeshan[dot]salahuddin[at]gmail.com
Twitter: @zeesalahuddin
The biggest indicators of change lie in Sindh. Karachi, the largest city and largest district in Pakistan, consistently took the top spot in terms of violence and fatalities. Target killings, robberies and muggings, and sectarian violence were the top contributors to violence in the city with a projected population of 24 million. Even at the height of Operation Zarb-e-Azb which targeted and eliminated hundreds of militants in the tribal region, Karachi district managed to top North Waziristan in terms of casualties.
Karachi saw more casualties than North Waziristan
However, 2015 has seen a steady decline in both the volume and severity of the violence that had besieged Karachi. For example, Karachi lost 2,029 lives to violence in 2014. In 2015’s first three quarters, Karachi has seen 358, 332 and 248 fatalities respectively. If the trend continues, by the end of 2015, Karachi would have reduced violence-related fatalities by nearly half, when compared to 2014. The sheer size of Karachi also has an incontrovertible impact on national statistics, depicting a receding trend of violence overall. This is despite some regions showing increased fatalities from violence – but their overall impact is minimal when juxtaposed against Karachi.
The other region that showed a decline in violence normally ranks as Pakistan’s second most violent –the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). FATA also saw a significant calm in the month of July, but again, August proved to be the second most violent month in 2015. The reduction in violence in FATA is minor compared to Karachi. However, the essential fact is that the two most violent regions in Pakistan have demonstrated a downward trend in the third quarter of the year, indicating that the efforts of the LEAs are finally beginning to yield demonstrable results in terms of increased safety for citizens.
On average, Punjab loses 25 souls to violence every month. However, in August of this year, the attack on the home minister resulted in doubling this figure, making it the bloodiest month for Punjab in 2015. The attack also showed a shift in focus of indigenous militant groups, and demonstrated their ability to strike in the home turf of the ruling party, the Pakistan Muslim League – Nawaz (PML-N). This attack also came on the heels of a police encounter which resulted in the deaths of Malik Ishaq and his two sons, the leader of Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, which claimed responsibility for the attack.
The third quarter did exhibit a significant decline in sectarian friction, especially when compared against the first and second quarters. The deaths resulting from sectarian strife were down by 70% from the second quarter and down by 90% from the first. Compared against the same time period from 2014, there is a near 90% reduction in sectarian violence.
Several alleged RAW operatives have been arrested
The third quarter also saw attempts to reconcile with Baloch nationalists to bring them into the mainstream. The government announced a Rs 1.5 million package for insurgents who laid down their arms and announced that they are not opposed to the state of Pakistan. For the third quarter, Balochistan lost 267 people in 2013, 174 in 2014, and 188 in 2015. This is also indicative of the highly volatile nature of the political and insurgent strife in the province. Linearly, violence in Balochistan has only worsened since the start of 2015, with the last four months showing a steady decline.
The third quarter saw an increased push by security and intelligence agencies to try and curb foreign involvement in Pakistan. Several alleged operatives of the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), the premier Indian intelligence agency, were arrested from various parts of Pakistan. A positive development is the increased push against instigators and proliferators of hate speech. While the LEAs and other security agencies shifted their focus to sectarian outfits, militants have predominantly shifted focus to government and military officials. Finally, the ratio of fatalities is now heavily tilted towards for militants and miscreants, demonstrating sporadic success in the state’s war on terror.
The author is a journalist and a Senior Research Fellow at the Center for Research and Security Studies, Islamabad. He holds a Master’s degree in strategic communications from Ithaca College, NY.
Email: zeeshan[dot]salahuddin[at]gmail.com
Twitter: @zeesalahuddin