Khawaja Saad Rafique has all but announced a U-turn in PMLN policy on General ® Pervez Musharraf’s fate. He says the PMLN is not tripping over itself to dispatch Musharraf to prison. This is the same Khawaja who not so long ago thundered against the dictator and vowed to slap him with Article 6. Khawaja Asif, the second big hawk, is already licking his wounds after being rapped by the military for stepping on its toes. This suggests that Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has finally seen the wisdom of letting Musharraf off the hook and signaled his stalwarts to change course and “save” his regime.
But that is easier said than done. The Musharraf case is now in the Supreme Court. This is causing anguish in both military and PMLN circles. The military wants a quick exit solution either by the court or the government. But the PMLN is apprehensive that the court may either declare that Musharraf cannot leave the country because of various pending cases against him or kick the ball back in the government’s court by ordering it to guarantee that Musharraf is produced in the courts when required, an impossible task.
The military has tried to make Mr Sharif’s job easier by getting ex-PM Yousaf Raza Gilani to declare that Musharraf was given “safe passage” in 2008 following an “agreement” between all major parties, including the PMLN, witnessed by America, UK and Saudi Arabia. The purpose of this statement is to make it easier for PMLN to retract from its current hard-line. Unfortunately, however, the message seems to have been lost on the key players. Anti-establishment PPP Senators Farhatullah Babar and Raza Rabbani don’t agree with Mr Gilani and the PMLN has flatly denied it ever approved any such “safe passage”, despite corroboratory evidence provided by US Ambassador Ann Patterson’s wikileaks cables of August 2008. This tells us that the politicians don’t even know when not to look a gift horse in the mouth.
Meanwhile, Imran Khan is breathing fire and brimstone and vowing to bring the PMLN regime down. Imran’s political somersaults have now become par for the course. First he said that he would cancel his “tsunami” march to Islamabad if the government agreed to open up four electoral constituencies for 100% thumb verification. Then he said that this demand was water down the bridge and nothing less than “mid-term elections” would quench his hunger for power. Now he is saying that if Afghanistan’s two political presidential rivals can agree to a full recount of all the polling stations, why can’t the same be done in Pakistan, quite conveniently forgetting that Afghanistan’s 3.5 million voters and 6900 polling stations are hardly comparable to Pakistan’s 35.7m voters and 97,000 polling stations.
Not to be forgotten or outdone, General Musharraf has thrown in his two bits worth. He says that the country cannot afford to continue on the path of this moth eaten system and needs an “interim government backed by the military” for some years to set things right. This statement was drafted by the military to send an ominous “message” to Mr Sharif, for the same purpose as Mr Gilani’s was aimed at showing the way forward.
The PMLN government is decidedly in a fix despite belated attempts to backtrack on the three issues that have dogged its relationship with the military: war on the Taliban, Musharraf, and GEO. What next?
Unless the PMLN is able to demonstrate some deft political moves and persuade Imran Khan and Tahir ul Qadri to back off, or scratch the military’s back so that it can lean on them to do the needful, the stage is set for a big anti-government show in Islamabad on August 14. The million dollar question is whether or not it will be a catalyst for regime change.
Dr Qadri is not likely to be deterred by tax demands from the FBR. Nor is Imran Khan likely to back down without significant concessions in the next few weeks. In the end it will all boil down to the military establishment – whether it is merely using the traditional political levers of power to cut Mr Sharif down to size or whether it has decided to send him packing. In the current circumstances, one cannot expect a charged mass gathering in Islamabad to melt away peacefully.
The problem with packing off Mr Sharif is that it can only be done in the manner of 1999 with a coup rather than in the manner of 1993 with the threat of a coup. Is the military ready to solely shoulder the burdens of fighting wars in Waziristan and Balochistan, uprooting urban terrorism in Karachi and Punjab, and managing an enraged population demanding electricity and jobs, while fending off criticism and possible sanctions from the international community for derailing democracy? We expect all contending players to do their homework carefully in the national interest before plunging the country into a crisis of huge proportions.
But that is easier said than done. The Musharraf case is now in the Supreme Court. This is causing anguish in both military and PMLN circles. The military wants a quick exit solution either by the court or the government. But the PMLN is apprehensive that the court may either declare that Musharraf cannot leave the country because of various pending cases against him or kick the ball back in the government’s court by ordering it to guarantee that Musharraf is produced in the courts when required, an impossible task.
The military has tried to make Mr Sharif’s job easier by getting ex-PM Yousaf Raza Gilani to declare that Musharraf was given “safe passage” in 2008 following an “agreement” between all major parties, including the PMLN, witnessed by America, UK and Saudi Arabia. The purpose of this statement is to make it easier for PMLN to retract from its current hard-line. Unfortunately, however, the message seems to have been lost on the key players. Anti-establishment PPP Senators Farhatullah Babar and Raza Rabbani don’t agree with Mr Gilani and the PMLN has flatly denied it ever approved any such “safe passage”, despite corroboratory evidence provided by US Ambassador Ann Patterson’s wikileaks cables of August 2008. This tells us that the politicians don’t even know when not to look a gift horse in the mouth.
Meanwhile, Imran Khan is breathing fire and brimstone and vowing to bring the PMLN regime down. Imran’s political somersaults have now become par for the course. First he said that he would cancel his “tsunami” march to Islamabad if the government agreed to open up four electoral constituencies for 100% thumb verification. Then he said that this demand was water down the bridge and nothing less than “mid-term elections” would quench his hunger for power. Now he is saying that if Afghanistan’s two political presidential rivals can agree to a full recount of all the polling stations, why can’t the same be done in Pakistan, quite conveniently forgetting that Afghanistan’s 3.5 million voters and 6900 polling stations are hardly comparable to Pakistan’s 35.7m voters and 97,000 polling stations.
Not to be forgotten or outdone, General Musharraf has thrown in his two bits worth. He says that the country cannot afford to continue on the path of this moth eaten system and needs an “interim government backed by the military” for some years to set things right. This statement was drafted by the military to send an ominous “message” to Mr Sharif, for the same purpose as Mr Gilani’s was aimed at showing the way forward.
The PMLN government is decidedly in a fix despite belated attempts to backtrack on the three issues that have dogged its relationship with the military: war on the Taliban, Musharraf, and GEO. What next?
Unless the PMLN is able to demonstrate some deft political moves and persuade Imran Khan and Tahir ul Qadri to back off, or scratch the military’s back so that it can lean on them to do the needful, the stage is set for a big anti-government show in Islamabad on August 14. The million dollar question is whether or not it will be a catalyst for regime change.
Dr Qadri is not likely to be deterred by tax demands from the FBR. Nor is Imran Khan likely to back down without significant concessions in the next few weeks. In the end it will all boil down to the military establishment – whether it is merely using the traditional political levers of power to cut Mr Sharif down to size or whether it has decided to send him packing. In the current circumstances, one cannot expect a charged mass gathering in Islamabad to melt away peacefully.
The problem with packing off Mr Sharif is that it can only be done in the manner of 1999 with a coup rather than in the manner of 1993 with the threat of a coup. Is the military ready to solely shoulder the burdens of fighting wars in Waziristan and Balochistan, uprooting urban terrorism in Karachi and Punjab, and managing an enraged population demanding electricity and jobs, while fending off criticism and possible sanctions from the international community for derailing democracy? We expect all contending players to do their homework carefully in the national interest before plunging the country into a crisis of huge proportions.