Modi, Muslims and Kashmir

The BJP can achieve nothing in Kashmir unless the distance between New Delhi and Islamabad is narrowed down

Modi, Muslims and Kashmir
The stunning victory of the right-wing Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) in the general elections marks the beginning of a new chapter in the history of democracy in India.

For the first time, the country will be ruled by a leader whose agenda includes issues that his rivals say are at the variance of secular character of the country. Narendra Modi was accused being complicit in the murder of hundreds of Muslim in Gujarat in 2002 in sectarian riots when he was the chief minister of the state. But he focused his election campaign on the corruption of the outgoing government of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) led by the Congress, the back-breaking inflation, the worsening economy, and his “success” as the chief minister of Gujarat, where he made development his main priority after the infamous riots of 2002.

He steered the BJP to this historic win almost single handedly, and the old guard in the party was not comfortable with his growing influence in the political arena.

One can understand the euphoria of the BJP, its cadres and those who voted it into power, but even the mainstream media in India seems to be in a state of delirium. Phrases like “A New India” are now the taglines for prime time TV programs, and those anchoring them seem to be happier than Modi and the BJP.

Modi and Muslims:

With Modi coming to power almost entirely through Hindu vote, it raises the questions about how Muslims, the largest minority with nearly 15 million population, will be treated. Some startling outcomes need to be deciphered.

As the BJP has always had a right wing political approach, the Muslims in India had been left to be used as a cannon fodder by the so-called secular parties with Congress topping the list. This “secular” vote bank politics has, over a period of time, isolated the Muslim population and framed it as “someone else” in the overall political arithmetic of India. So far, the Muslims had been living with the notion that they had a decisive role in making and breaking governments in India with their votes. But this time, Modi planted his trusted lieutenant Amit Shah in Uttar Pradesh, the largest populated Indian state that sends 80 members to the parliament. He strategized the elections in such a fashion that the Muslim vote became ineffective.

Riding the on the wave of popularity of Modi, who himself was the biggest polarizer in the elections, Amit Shah tried a new method of counter-polarization to make the Muslim vote useless.

This way, the BJP swept UP with 70 members and made the cattiest of groups such as Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bhujan Samaj Party (BSP) redundant. Both these parties had been banking on votes by Other Backward Classes and Dalits. In 17 constituencies in UP, the Muslim population is between 22 to 50 percent. But Amit Shah’s plan was to consolidate the Hindu vote on one side and split the Muslims vote by supporting some “secular” candidates who were put in the fray to divide the Muslims.

There were similar high percentages of Muslim population in nine constituencies in Bihar. The BJP had given tickets to three Muslim candidates in the state, and all of them lost. Of the nine seats in Bihar, it won five along with Ramvilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP).

[quote]The number of Muslims members in the Indian parliament is now at its lowest, at 22[/quote]

With a complete turnaround in favour of BJP, the number of Muslims members in the parliament is now at its lowest, at 22. If these 22 seats – spread from Kashmir Valley (3), West Bengal (17) and Kerala (2) are left out – as BJP has no presence in these regions, it has hit a success rate of 75%, an enviable record which even the secular parties have never matched since 1989.

With this huge but one-sided mandate and his previous record in Gujarat for which he refused to apologize, the concern among the biggest minority of India is genuine. However, for him this situation is both a challenge and an opportunity. He can use his new power as an opportunity to reach out to them, to fulfill his long-term goal, which many analysts believe is to rule India for the next 15 to 20 years.

By ensuring inclusive growth, ending discrimination and doing away with the Othering of Muslims, Modi can take away the much abused slogan of “secularism” from Congress much like he took away power form them.

There are several voices among Hindus that are concerned about the policy Modi would adopt towards Muslims. Mahatma Gandhi’s grandson and former West Bengal Governor Gopal Krishan Gandhi wrote an open letter to Modi in a leading daily urging him to take the minorities along. He cautioned him that notwithstanding the numbers, only 39 percent people had voted for him.

 

Modi’s Kashmir Policy:

During his campaign in Jammu and Kashmir, Modi invoked former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s “Insaniyat Kay Dairay Main” (within the ambit of humanity) policy for Kashmir. Not much is known about what his plans are to address the political dimensions of the problem, but it will largely depend on his policy and approach towards Pakistan.

Kashmir has two dimensions for India, one being internal and the other external. But it is linked to relations between Islamabad and New Delhi as well. One may recall the policy Vajpayee adopted towards Pakistan as that brought a change not only in relations between the two neighbors, but also within Kashmir. In spite of Kargil and the Parliament Attack of 2001, Vajpayee visited Pakistan twice in his six-year tenure as prime minister, but Manmohan Singh did not take up even a single visit to Pakistan during his 10-year tenure despite only one terrorist incident in Mumbai that was blamed on Pakistan.

Since Modi has an overwhelming mandate and is apparently strong in his decisions, it is expected that he may take some concrete steps in case he is enamored by Vajpayee’s positive approach. Nothing can be achieved in Kashmir unless the distance between New Delhi and Islamabad is narrowed down.

The writer is a journalist based in Srinagar