The one day International Conference on Climate Resilient Pakistan in Geneva, on January 9, 2023, co-hosted by Pakistan and the United Nations, was an opportune moment. Heads of states and other stakeholders pledged about US $10 billion to Pakistan. It is an indicator of a recognition of the severity and scale of the climate crisis, and perhaps a renewed trust in the government of Pakistan to build resilience in the face of a host of governance challenges.
These pledges of US $10 billion need to be seen therefore, in context beyond their numeric value.
The assistance offered is strategic support for resilience building. It is a renewed commitment of support by global leaders for Pakistan to undertake reformative, adaptive and protective steps to integrate adaptation measures and inculcate resilience at institutional and community levels. It is also meant to ensure risk informed sustainable development.
Pakistan is facing unbridled population growth. Short and long-term climatic and economic human mobility is leading to unplanned urbanisation, where informal settlements in peri-urban areas are increasing, and stressing urban governments' capacities to function. Successive governments have not focused on modernising agriculture, to be cost effective and efficient, and serve as a green engine of economic growth. Weak democratisation and the absence of a functional local government system, one that distinguishes between the needs and nuances of rural and urban governance, further constrains service delivery, local resource management and responsiveness to climate disasters.
The combined effects of uneven urbanisation, the climate crisis and population growth have deepened inequalities in Pakistani society. Together, these have turned into challenges that pose a multidimensional risk to the stability of our nation that require systemic and human resilient solutions.
Converting these pledges into actualization is the key issue from this point on for the government of Pakistan. Development partners will expect efficient, effective and accountable mechanisms from the federal, provincial and local governments, based on integrated and inclusive policies to deliver public goods, facilitate rehabilitation and resettlement, and harness socio-economic reintegration.
The pathway to institutional and community resilience is neither single track nor top-down. It needs integrated policies, planning, budgeting and implementation on one hand; and a climate responsive socio-economic way of life to natural resource management, on the other. It needs functional local governments to ensure service delivery to be transformative and harness local solutions and responsiveness. Local government is the key to creating policy-community connections, but unfortunately all political stakeholders continue to cripple it.
The devolution of administrative powers, expertise and fiscal resources from the provinces to local level has been a struggle, even during active periods of local governments. The flooding climate disaster has reinforced the idea that a functioning local government system is the key to disaster management and resilience building -- be it for rescue, relief, rehabilitation or resettlement.
Communities in Pakistan have historically displayed resilience, in wake of meagre resources through ad hoc use of local knowledge and practices. However, there cannot be any ‘build–back–better’ without local governments. The vertical programming, through non-government organisations and international experts, are short-term solutions. They are not systems that help cover the delivery gap. In fact they add to the deficit of governance in long-run.
Colossal institutional investment has been made for disaster management in Pakistan since the earthquake of 2005 -- from Earthquake Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Authority (ERRA) to the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA). Interestingly, despite being technically merged into NDMA and devolved post-2010, the ERRA continues to not only exist on paper but also function as an entity. The NDMA over the last 15 years has received substantial institutional capacity-building support at the national and provincial levels. Yet, its performance has been disappointing to say the least, in the face of floods, glacial outbursts, landslides, locust infestations, and the Covid-19 pandemic.
Despite the fact that Pakistan has been among the top 10 climate stressed countries for over a decade now, the performance of the Ministry of Climate Change has been poor. Take the Sindh disaster management plan, where no provision was made for climate shocks despite widely known global projections.
Entities like the National Disaster Management Resource Fund (NDMRF) had credit lines for rehabilitative work, but it continued to purchase radars to build conventional projects.
The Ministry of Climate Change (MOCC) under the leadership of Senator Sherry Rehman has been active for the first time and initiated the ‘Loss and Damages Fund’ at COP27 and the conference in Geneva.
The buck does not stop here however. The MOCC needs to not only lead but also do things differently. It must manage, respond and rehabilitate systems and communities for climate shocks and disaster risk reduction (DRR).
Globally, digital transformation has been identified as the key enabler. Data informed cross-sectoral political economy analysis on resilience, especially for climate insecurity and the linked issue of human mobility, can be facilitated through technology. Digital innovation has the ability to shift projection and assumption-based work into geo-tagged responses in real terms from geographic location to community.
Similarly, it can help plan and integrate ongoing social protection, as part of relief and rehabilitation that can get rid of discretionary grants and systems which invariably raises questions of transparency. It can also help in reaching out to women, children and persons with disability. Utilizing digital technologies for data generation, predictive analytics, knowledge management, budget allocation, etc. will satisfy donor’s accountability and transparency markers. It will also be cost effective.
Pakistan is currently undertaking a digital census. The data generated can be used for future programming, for example, Global Positioning System (GPS) and Geographical Information System (GIS) data collected for the digital census be used in policy formulation, service delivery, impact assessment and targeted outreach solutions for emergency response.
Climate resilience is social transformation. It requires community advocacy and raising awareness. Social media platforms should be positively used to expand outreach, knowledge, and digital awareness campaigns. Youth should be engaged through educational systems for online advocacy partnerships and engagements with civil society organisations and academia.
Youth and women are difficult to reach out to because they are discriminated against and are a part of the informal economy. Therefore, they have a risk of being off the radar of resilience initiatives. However, they display both adaptiveness and creativity when faced with shocks.
Pakistan should make serious efforts to comply with the Sustainable Development Goals, to align with commitments of the Sendai Framework for DRR and Paris Agreement for reducing risks and building resilience around concepts of sustainability and equity; to integrate resilience in cross-sectoral policy formulation and implementation mechanism; and to set an improved bar for transparency and accountability.
The donors, especially the UN system, need to demonstrate to deliver as ‘one’. The existing SDG indicator based monitoring and evaluation support and work at the provincial level; and use Mainstreaming, Acceleration and Policy Support (MAPS) approach to capture low hanging fruits. All donors as a principle can agree on a position on climate resilience which can be integrated in its cross-sectoral advocacy work and reduce vertical programming structures.
It must also keep local and provincial governments in loop when working with CSOs/NGOs or through their international contractors so that the government can consolidate efforts.
The World Economic Forum’s Chief Economist Outlook of 2022 projects higher global inflation, lower wages and food insecurity, and that the Russia-Ukraine war has created energy supply disruptions, impacting food and electricity prices.
According to the conclusions of the UN Secretary-General’s Global Crisis Response Group on Food, Energy and Finance, the three-dimensional global crisis can be a “perfect storm that threatens to devastate the economies of developing countries”.
The combination of rising food and energy prices, and their impact on already strained public budgets in many countries could cause debt distress, food shortages and blackouts. It may also trigger secondary armed conflicts.
These shocks and disruptions may overburden policy-makers and institutions, and give rise to economic nationalism and disintegration. It may also shift their attention away from long-term goals, such as climate change, inequality and demographics.
A shift of policy-makers’ attention to national energy or food security, for example, risks deprioritising the urgent need for action to combat climate change. Similarly, prioritising short-term national interests at the expense of gains from the exchange of goods, services, ideas, technology and the movement of people risks setting back global economic convergence by decades, increasing the possibility of growing poverty and social and economic strife.
2022 was a troublesome year for Pakistan’s economy and politics. The nation was struggling to manage the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic and the aftereffects of PTI’s lacklustre governance. Rising poverty, food insecurity, contentious Pak-Afghan relations, population growth, gaps in education, health and climate change continued to threaten development. The monsoon floods worsened the situation further.
The road to transformation is a long and arduous one. The only way we are going to get there is through better governance and collaboration.
These pledges of US $10 billion need to be seen therefore, in context beyond their numeric value.
The assistance offered is strategic support for resilience building. It is a renewed commitment of support by global leaders for Pakistan to undertake reformative, adaptive and protective steps to integrate adaptation measures and inculcate resilience at institutional and community levels. It is also meant to ensure risk informed sustainable development.
Pakistan is facing unbridled population growth. Short and long-term climatic and economic human mobility is leading to unplanned urbanisation, where informal settlements in peri-urban areas are increasing, and stressing urban governments' capacities to function. Successive governments have not focused on modernising agriculture, to be cost effective and efficient, and serve as a green engine of economic growth. Weak democratisation and the absence of a functional local government system, one that distinguishes between the needs and nuances of rural and urban governance, further constrains service delivery, local resource management and responsiveness to climate disasters.
The combined effects of uneven urbanisation, the climate crisis and population growth have deepened inequalities in Pakistani society. Together, these have turned into challenges that pose a multidimensional risk to the stability of our nation that require systemic and human resilient solutions.
There cannot be any ‘build–back–better’ without local governments. The vertical programming, through non-government organisations and international experts, are short-term solutions. They are not systems that help cover the delivery gap. In fact they add to the deficit of governance in long-run.
Converting these pledges into actualization is the key issue from this point on for the government of Pakistan. Development partners will expect efficient, effective and accountable mechanisms from the federal, provincial and local governments, based on integrated and inclusive policies to deliver public goods, facilitate rehabilitation and resettlement, and harness socio-economic reintegration.
The pathway to institutional and community resilience is neither single track nor top-down. It needs integrated policies, planning, budgeting and implementation on one hand; and a climate responsive socio-economic way of life to natural resource management, on the other. It needs functional local governments to ensure service delivery to be transformative and harness local solutions and responsiveness. Local government is the key to creating policy-community connections, but unfortunately all political stakeholders continue to cripple it.
The devolution of administrative powers, expertise and fiscal resources from the provinces to local level has been a struggle, even during active periods of local governments. The flooding climate disaster has reinforced the idea that a functioning local government system is the key to disaster management and resilience building -- be it for rescue, relief, rehabilitation or resettlement.
Communities in Pakistan have historically displayed resilience, in wake of meagre resources through ad hoc use of local knowledge and practices. However, there cannot be any ‘build–back–better’ without local governments. The vertical programming, through non-government organisations and international experts, are short-term solutions. They are not systems that help cover the delivery gap. In fact they add to the deficit of governance in long-run.
Colossal institutional investment has been made for disaster management in Pakistan since the earthquake of 2005 -- from Earthquake Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Authority (ERRA) to the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA). Interestingly, despite being technically merged into NDMA and devolved post-2010, the ERRA continues to not only exist on paper but also function as an entity. The NDMA over the last 15 years has received substantial institutional capacity-building support at the national and provincial levels. Yet, its performance has been disappointing to say the least, in the face of floods, glacial outbursts, landslides, locust infestations, and the Covid-19 pandemic.
Despite the fact that Pakistan has been among the top 10 climate stressed countries for over a decade now, the performance of the Ministry of Climate Change has been poor. Take the Sindh disaster management plan, where no provision was made for climate shocks despite widely known global projections.
Climate resilience is social transformation. It requires community advocacy and raising awareness. Social media platforms should be positively used to expand outreach, knowledge, and digital awareness campaigns.
Entities like the National Disaster Management Resource Fund (NDMRF) had credit lines for rehabilitative work, but it continued to purchase radars to build conventional projects.
The Ministry of Climate Change (MOCC) under the leadership of Senator Sherry Rehman has been active for the first time and initiated the ‘Loss and Damages Fund’ at COP27 and the conference in Geneva.
The buck does not stop here however. The MOCC needs to not only lead but also do things differently. It must manage, respond and rehabilitate systems and communities for climate shocks and disaster risk reduction (DRR).
Globally, digital transformation has been identified as the key enabler. Data informed cross-sectoral political economy analysis on resilience, especially for climate insecurity and the linked issue of human mobility, can be facilitated through technology. Digital innovation has the ability to shift projection and assumption-based work into geo-tagged responses in real terms from geographic location to community.
Similarly, it can help plan and integrate ongoing social protection, as part of relief and rehabilitation that can get rid of discretionary grants and systems which invariably raises questions of transparency. It can also help in reaching out to women, children and persons with disability. Utilizing digital technologies for data generation, predictive analytics, knowledge management, budget allocation, etc. will satisfy donor’s accountability and transparency markers. It will also be cost effective.
Pakistan is currently undertaking a digital census. The data generated can be used for future programming, for example, Global Positioning System (GPS) and Geographical Information System (GIS) data collected for the digital census be used in policy formulation, service delivery, impact assessment and targeted outreach solutions for emergency response.
Climate resilience is social transformation. It requires community advocacy and raising awareness. Social media platforms should be positively used to expand outreach, knowledge, and digital awareness campaigns. Youth should be engaged through educational systems for online advocacy partnerships and engagements with civil society organisations and academia.
Youth and women are difficult to reach out to because they are discriminated against and are a part of the informal economy. Therefore, they have a risk of being off the radar of resilience initiatives. However, they display both adaptiveness and creativity when faced with shocks.
Pakistan should make serious efforts to comply with the Sustainable Development Goals, to align with commitments of the Sendai Framework for DRR and Paris Agreement for reducing risks and building resilience around concepts of sustainability and equity; to integrate resilience in cross-sectoral policy formulation and implementation mechanism; and to set an improved bar for transparency and accountability.
The donors, especially the UN system, need to demonstrate to deliver as ‘one’. The existing SDG indicator based monitoring and evaluation support and work at the provincial level; and use Mainstreaming, Acceleration and Policy Support (MAPS) approach to capture low hanging fruits. All donors as a principle can agree on a position on climate resilience which can be integrated in its cross-sectoral advocacy work and reduce vertical programming structures.
It must also keep local and provincial governments in loop when working with CSOs/NGOs or through their international contractors so that the government can consolidate efforts.
The World Economic Forum’s Chief Economist Outlook of 2022 projects higher global inflation, lower wages and food insecurity, and that the Russia-Ukraine war has created energy supply disruptions, impacting food and electricity prices.
According to the conclusions of the UN Secretary-General’s Global Crisis Response Group on Food, Energy and Finance, the three-dimensional global crisis can be a “perfect storm that threatens to devastate the economies of developing countries”.
The combination of rising food and energy prices, and their impact on already strained public budgets in many countries could cause debt distress, food shortages and blackouts. It may also trigger secondary armed conflicts.
These shocks and disruptions may overburden policy-makers and institutions, and give rise to economic nationalism and disintegration. It may also shift their attention away from long-term goals, such as climate change, inequality and demographics.
A shift of policy-makers’ attention to national energy or food security, for example, risks deprioritising the urgent need for action to combat climate change. Similarly, prioritising short-term national interests at the expense of gains from the exchange of goods, services, ideas, technology and the movement of people risks setting back global economic convergence by decades, increasing the possibility of growing poverty and social and economic strife.
2022 was a troublesome year for Pakistan’s economy and politics. The nation was struggling to manage the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic and the aftereffects of PTI’s lacklustre governance. Rising poverty, food insecurity, contentious Pak-Afghan relations, population growth, gaps in education, health and climate change continued to threaten development. The monsoon floods worsened the situation further.
The road to transformation is a long and arduous one. The only way we are going to get there is through better governance and collaboration.