It’s certainly a big if. There is no guarantee that he will return to power by winning the next general elections, whenever they are called. There is also the big unknown: “How will the powers that be countenance his return?” He clashed with them head-on even before he was deposed in April, calling them the “neutrals,” and adding, disparagingly, that only animals are neutral.
But given the massive rallies he has been calling week after week in every big city, and given the frequent interviews he is giving on various TV channels, and given the vast social media network that his acolytes have created, there is a better than a fifty-fifty chance he will return to power.
If he does return, he may well come in with a sizable majority in the National Assembly. Millions of Pakistanis have bought his argument that a US conspiracy deposed him even though there is no evidence of a conspiracy. Millions have also ignored the criticism that he has received globally for having visited Russian President Vladimir Putin on the day that Russia invaded Ukraine, having accepted his argument that he went there in Pakistan’s self-interest to buy oil and gas at a 30 percent discount.
Additionally, his themes of seeking to pursue an independent foreign policy and seeking to purge corrupt and treasonous opponents domestically have resonated with millions of Pakistan.
If he is returned to power, what is he likely to do? Domestically, the nation is deeply polarised. It won’t be easy to heal the deep divisions that he has created with his caustic rhetoric. It will be difficult to rule a country that is divided.
The US remains Pakistan’s largest trading power, in addition to being the biggest economy in the globe and the nation with the strongest military. His blunt criticism of the US has damaged his image with the Biden administration. It won’t be easy to restore ties with the US.
Will he retain the same cabinet? That seems quite likely, given the visibility that Asad Umar and Shah Mahmood Qureshi are getting in the rallies. They are often seen standing next to him on the podium or the make-shift truck.
Given the massive rallies he has been calling week after week in every big city, and given the frequent interviews he is giving on various TV channels, and given the vast social media network that his acolytes have created, there is a better than a fifty-fifty chance he will return to power.
That cabinet was not able to help him achieve the lofty goals he had set for himself as he assumed the oath of office in 2018. The expectations are even higher this time around. In the end, what matters the most is economics. The rest is rhetoric.
During his term in office, he was unable to deliver on most of his promises and was making U-Turn after U-Turn. To recap, he had said he would bring home $200 billion of looted wealth on Day 1. He had said he would not borrow from the Arab states or the IMF. He would restore economic growth and the deficits in the fiscal account and the balance of trade would disappear.
He failed to bring back looted wealth and he borrowed both from the Arabs and the IMF. Economic growth was uneven and halting. The chronic trade and fiscal deficits persisted, despite his claims to have grown exports rapidly. The rupee lost value which helped exports to grow but also caused imports to grow. Consequently, Pakistan’s international debt grew by 50 percent.
While issuing Pakistan’s first-ever national security policy, he made the outrageous claim that the trade-off between military spending and economic spending was archaic and that Pakistan would be able to grow both. That’s impossible. As students learn in their introductory economic class, “There is no such thing as a free lunch.”
Unless military spending is made more transparent, it will be difficult to reduce it. If it’s not reduced, Pakistan’s human and economic development will be impeded. The nation will not be able to live up to its potential.
But in his second term, will the military allow him to review and curtail military spending? It did not in his first term. Why would it do so in the second term?
The budget deficit will not go away unless tax revenues are increased substantially. This requires expanding the tax base. Will agricultural incomes be taxed? Will the wealthy who don’t pay taxes be required to pay tax? Imran Khan was unable to do so in his first term. The power of the vested interests that have eluded the taxman for decades cannot be underestimated. Unless their power is reduced, Pakistan will continue to suffer from “elite capture”. Despite his bombastic rhetoric and grandiose promises, Imran Khan won’t be able to get the elite to give up their power.
What would he do to curtail inflation? It’s a global problem. No single nation can do much about it, and certainly not a nation that’s so heavily dependent on imports of just about everything as Pakistan.
What about his plans to eliminate corruption from the body politic of the country? Once again, that makes for great electoral rhetoric but is impossible to execute. Corruption is not just confined to the “dynastic” political parties that oppose him and that are the favourite target of his demagoguery.
In his second term, will the military allow him to review and curtail military spending? It did not in his first term. Why would it do so in the second term?
Unfortunately, as in many developing countries, corruption has become a form of life in Pakistan. Yes, it’s an Islamic Republic and corruption is a sin, both materially and spiritually. But neither reason has stopped it from being carried out at all levels of government.
The person collecting the bribe or the one offering it – both consider it normal practice. Often there is a sign on the wall behind the desk of the official collecting the bribe, which cites a verse from the scripture in which King Solomon says to the visiting Queen, “It’s a gift from God.”
Pakistan’s problems are deeply embedded in the DNA of the country. They are structural in nature. That’s why they have been around for decades. There is no doubt that a day will come when someone will begin to address them earnestly and, with grit and determination, and a lot of luck, begin to eliminate them.
But that day is far off into the future. We know Imran Khan’s abilities very well, based on his track record in his first term in office. He is not that person, despite being the object of much adulation.
Once he is back in office, the messianic veil will be lifted. Even his devoted followers are likely to be disappointed. Disillusionment is likely to set in rather quickly, perhaps even before the first year is over.
While your candid, critical views of Imran Khan and PTI are important for journalistic integrity, it is just as vital that you and your fellow journalists not give IK’s opponents a free pass. Factually a 3rd-world country, Pakistan in its current deplorable shape is not a legacy of Imran the newcomer; that dubious honor is the old guard’s, which wants no accountability for past actions nor for someone from outside the tribe to succeed, hence the impossibly high standards expected from IK and his team. This is the same dog-and-pony show Pakistani elites have played with Islam for decades. The reasoning crystallized in Benazir’s words went thusly: How can I implement an Islamic framework when there is no universal agreement on which kind of framework to implement? Having your cake and eating it too, indeed.
From where I sit, all failures of an honest government are preferred over the “efficiencies” of technocrats and their hopelessly corrupt overlords, simply because an honest system will learn from its mistakes and then we’ll have the best of both worlds: A competent ruling group and trustworthy leaders.
If all newspaper columnists can be is mouthpieces for the objectively bad past–or a Benazir-esque cynical future–then perhaps the profession itself needs an Imran Khan.