For all intents and purposes, the “selected” prime minister, Imran Khan, is on a ventilator, fighting for his government’s survival. He has lost the confidence of a majority of the members of Parliament. Over a dozen PTI MNAs have openly revolted (more are said to be biding their time) and, despite threats and exhortations, have refused to return to the PTI fold. In the same manner, at least 15 MNAs from allied parties have admitted to stitching up agreements with the Opposition to join their no-confidence bid against Mr Khan. That means a vote of no-confidence is assured of success if the constitutional procedure is followed by the NA Speaker, Asad Qaisar, in the next seven days or so. But here’s the rub.
Imran Khan, who never tires of taking the moral high ground, is determined to resist his ouster, never mind what the law and constitution say. The Speaker has used his discretion to delay the day of reckoning as much as possible and indications are he will continue to drag his feet. This includes conspiring with President Arif Alvi and compelling the opposition to approach the Supreme Court to clarify or restrict his rulings. This will entail further delays, as for example in the matter of the Presidential Reference seeking the SC’s opinion on the matter of “de-seating” for the term of this parliament or “disqualification” from parliament for life of MNAs crossing the floor.
While the battle in parliament is joined by the government and opposition and spills over to the SC, Imran Khan is daily exhorting his supporters to reach Islamabad on March 27 for a “historic” rally during which he intends to spring a thunderous surprise to knock out the opposition. Since his ouster is now a legal and constitutional issue, he may be aiming to put public pressure on the SC to discard notions of “constitutional justice” and blackmail the Miltablishment to abandon “
This is a dangerous and risky strategy. The Opposition has already geared up to challenge his 27 March rally with its own in Islamabad on March 28.And there is no knowing how the Miltablishment will react to any attempt by him to embarrass, divide or belittle it on one ground or another, as for example by “de-notifying” the current army chief and “notifying” a new one, because any such move will be challenged institutionally in more ways than one. Therefore the stage could be set for a violent ending.
There are some media reports that Miltablishment efforts are afoot to facilitate a compromise between the protagonists, to diffuse the situation in the national interest. The proposed formula would lead to elections later this year instead of next year under a neutral Miltablishment and stop the victimization of the Opposition by NAB, FIA, etc., in exchange for calling off the vote of no-confidence, thereby saving
On the other hand, there are equally responsible media voic
Opposition leaders insist they have crossed the Rubicon and there is no chance of any compromise with Imran Khan because of the yawning trust deficit between them. He has lied through his teeth so often and taken so many U-Turns, they believe, that they are not even prepared to accept Miltablishment assurances on his behalf even if these were forthcoming. They say they will keep up the pressure even if Imran Khan survives this round for one reason or another. They simply cannot afford to let Imran Khan off the hook because they fear he will scupper parliamentary democracy, rig the next elections and set up a fascist regime. There is also a trust deficit between the Miltablishment and Imran Khan that has provided an opportunity to the opposition to bring matters to a head.
While the civilians slug it out between themselves and the Miltablishment ponders the failure of its most recent hybrid regime experiment, the economy continues to plunge in the face of unprecedented inflation, un
In the next few days, political confrontation will reach a climactic breaking point. The Opposition holds all the cards but Imran Khan is threatening to finesse the end-game with a secret Ace of Spades. In the final analysis, it is the Miltablishment and the Supreme Court whose decisions will tilt the balance. If both stay “neutral”, the country’s blundering course can be corrected by reinvesting in democracy, rule of law and constitutionalism.
