Prime Minister Imran Khan is reported to have told his cabinet colleagues that the next three months are going to be critical but he didn’t explain why. Much the same sort of comment is forthcoming from PMLN bigwigs but they also don’t care to elaborate. However, speculation in the media is focused on the growing tension in civil-military relations which, if history is any guide, has invariably led to regime change, often at great cost to the civilian dispensation. The fact that this is happening in the midst of a severe economic crisis that is fueling popular protest, renewed terrorism from bases in Afghanistan, strained relations with the US and the rise of the increasingly militant Tehreek Labaik Pakistan is additional cause for anxiety.
One critical milestone ahead is 19 November when the ISI is scheduled to get a new commanding officer. That Imran Khan has conceded this with great reluctance is one cause of his tensions with the Miltablishment. He wants the ISI to continue to troubleshoot and protect him in the future as it has done in the last few years. But the Miltablishment is in no mood to oblige blindly because its “one-page” association with Imran Khan has rebounded to its acute discomfort. The ball is in Khan’s court. Will he make a pre-emptive strike against the Miltablishment and risk his all, will he go down fighting against it in the next few months and stay out in the cold for years to come, or will he survive this tense period by some select tanother?
Three recent developments give an insight into his line of thinking. He ordered his civil-military troopers to put down the TLP. But the Punjab police balked and the Rangers stood down, compelling a U-Turn leading to a “settlement” that is so embarrassing that he isn’t ready to disclose it to the public. The second is his determination to railroad oppressive new laws via Presidential Ordinance to control the media and harass the opposition so that they cannot mount any challenge to him in the next elections. Among these may be counted the law to legitimize EVMs and Internet Voting to facilitate select rigging, the right to appoint and sack the NAB chairman to victimize the opposition and wear it down, and the PMDA to control the media so that it doesn’t support the rising popular narrative against him. The third is his attempt to give a sugar coated pill – “an unprecedented Relief Package” of Rs 120B that works out to about Rs 5 per day per person for six months – to try to blunt the anger of the people at the corruption and mismanagement of his government. Indeed, his comparison of price hikes in other countries without reference to incomes and employment added insult to injury to Pakistanis who acutely feel the hardships imposed by continuing cuts in disposable incomes. In other words, Imran Khan seems determined to fight off threats to his government and is certainly in no mood to take the democratic route and call upon the people to give a fresh ruling mandate to someone else.
As Imran Khan digs his heels in, there are signs of increasing resistance and even hostility from those organs of the state that had helped bring him to power. The Punjabi civil service has put pens down and brought governance to a halt; the Punjab police is demoralized and leaderless – the 7th IGP in three years is on his way out; the Election Commission of Pakistan is standing up to resist his threats and abuses; the judiciary has ordered local body elections knowing well that the PTI will be wiped out; and there is every reason to believe that his most controversial Presidential Ordnances may be struck down by the courts, leaving the Emperor without clothes.
Until now, the Miltablishment has reasoned that there is no alternative to Imran Khan because a hostile Nawaz Sharif is liable to stick the knife in if the PMLN returns to office or because the pliant PPP is not popular enough to win the general elections. But some sort of “understanding” is certainly possible to create a more palatable option than Imran Khan in his current form and content: If the Miltablishment could guarantee free and fair general elections (that will, of course, lead to a win for the PMLN), Nawaz Sharif would probably agree to nominate Shahbaz Sharif – who is the “acceptable” face of the PMLN — as PM and guarantee safe passage to core Miltablishment figures.
But it is also significant that the PDM’s jalsas are not grabbing the sort of media headlines that are needed to give momentum to any serious and threatening movement. Its leaders are also not interested in trying to exploit the grievances fueling the TLP, which is the opposite of what Imran Khan did when the same TLP was on the streets against the PMLN some years ago. This is strange, considering politics is all about ruthlessly seizing opportunities to further one’s cause or ambitions. The only explanation is that the Miltablishment has asked the components of the PDM not to muddy these waters in the “national interest” and the PDM is cooperating because it is hoping to woo the Miltablishment away from the PTI.
Whatever the stars foretell for political astrologers, we shall also know soon enough. If there is a new DGISI on November 20, it may be the beginning of a period of political neutrality in the Agency with far reaching consequences for politics in the country. But it may also be because Imran Khan has something more sinister in mind, in which case all bets will be off. Do the changing colours of autumn presage another winter of discontent? Or is spring already in the air?
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