What is being termed mild skirmishes has the potential of turning into a full-scale war with clear orders not to take prisoners from one side.
Prime Minister Imran Khan seems to have entered a minefield without any prior military experience, exposing the PTI government to an unknown territory with unpromising consequences.
With an inexperienced platoon of ministers and advisors, including an array of hired guns, the PM perhaps has little or no choice to call the shots anymore. He, nevertheless, has the luxury of calling it the day at any time — an option he always held up his sleeve with the confidence he is the only choice. Not any longer, perhaps.
The PTI, with a compromised parliamentary strength even for a simple legislation, pathetic governance, blurred internal and external policies, and, above all, nosediving economy, precisely knows the odds in the coming elections. The sitting legislators of the ruling coalition find it difficult to visit their respective constituencies.
The PTI knows it needs a friendly Election Commission, a tamed NAB, a friendly judiciary and the power to make all this possible before the 2023 polls. This implies a repeat of 2018 with an even more underpowered party, whose leadership has tested positive for incompetence.
So far, nothing is working for the ruling party. And, the supremo is a ‘team-man.’ He has no experience of playing solo, leave aside winning the game. The PTI needs the EVMs and the overseas Pakistanis’ votes before jumping off the plane. Without these prerequisites, it is suicide, rather than a fun game. After having taken the political victimisation to another level, Khan cannot afford to be left alone — either before or after the general elections.
It is quite possible that another extension in the chief’s tenure might become inevitable by November next year. The country’s situation is even more precarious compared to the last time he was asked to stay. In such a scenario, the PM’s dream of elevating the outgoing DG ISI might not get fulfilled. From the existing deadlock, this notion does get strength.
If that is the scenario, the PM’s concern is logical. He would, at least, want the guy around for a few more months to make all moves necessary for ensuring another term. With the performance card empty, there are so many holes to plug for the PTI to ensure a berth the next time around.
It boils down to the fact the Islamabad brouhaha is quite serious and a matter of life and death for some. It is not a mere ‘misunderstanding’ over a notification or a violation of the protocol. The situation is quite bleak for the PTI and its support in uniform.
If the top army man is sinking under the burden of its protégé’s pathetic performance, how long a lone ranger among his ranks could sustain the pressure? Even if the chief doesn’t want an extension, he might be trying to undo the damage. Maybe, a change of heart to reverse the situation necessary for saving the country. It could be anything!
It is being learnt that the power-that-be has passed instructions for giving Hamza Shahbaz free room to flex political muscles. A huge shift if the information holds substance. This implies some sort of fresh political cultivation is going on. The PTI splinters, the PML, the possible PPP gains in the South Punjab and other political satellites could do the trick.
All options to deploy Shahbaz Sharif, the PPP, the JUI-F and the rest of the spectrum are on the table. Even the thorny Sharifs could be managed without just one antagonist under fire because of his alleged proximity with the PM. Maryam Nawaz might get the desired relief from the court. Even Nawaz Sharif could have some deal just short of another Prime Ministership. The Sharifs could be told to set things right within the family.
What if Jahangir Tareen and the likes stand up to Imran Khan? The work on other groups, small parties and regional parties is already underway.
The PPP is trying to penetrate down South Punjab. The JUI-F is already going out with the establishment for finding solution to the Taliban issue. It has become relevant in the KPK, Balochistan, South Punjab and even parts of Karachi on the basis of its sectarian leaning. A sort of managed or consented concept of a national government could not be ruled out either.
The cementing belief amidst many opposition quarters vis-a-vis the chances of fair elections in 2023 is pointing to the same fact the establishment is changing course.
Add to this the possibility of the NAB Ordinance, getting struck down. The action taken by the NAB head after the promulgation of the Ordinance doesn’t give good vibes to the PTI. Say, for one, if the term of the NAB head part is struck down, what would be the equation between the government and the NAB Chairman!
Some wizards strongly believe the PM has survived a similar situation when the chief needed an extension the last time. As opposed to the aired perception, the opposition, especially the PML-N, was the only hurdle in the proposed legislation for the purpose. The experienced amongst the patrons exactly knew who dug potholes in an, otherwise, routine matter.
It was a smart move to kill two birds with one arrow, though thwarted by the opposition in time.
Interestingly, the top guy in Rawalpindi was in complete control of the situation, especially the number-game. One wrong move would have cost the PTI the government. The PM always thinks he is the only choice. He was cut to size when he lost his finance guru.
The PTI has thrived on propaganda on all fronts, especially its utter ineptness in running the government, the sole job at hand after its controversial success in 2018. It has focused on firefighting strategy rather than taking the most pressing issues, economy, for instance, by the horn.
Now, after over three years in the office, it appears to be losing sleep, let alone the dream of a ten-year continuous rule so vehemently trumpeted for bringing the avowed change.
The PTI’s detracting strategy had started losing the grooves among the masses after a couple of horrible years of dismal performance. Ironically, the political masterminds around the captain began to develop faith in toying with the same tactics against the masters. And, that’s probably forced the creators to a scramble.
