When Nawaz Sharif upped the ante in his recent speeches from central London, it appeared as if something was in the offing. The PML-N supremo alluded to the past coup and singled out General Mahmoud Ahmed’s volent role in the ’99 coup. (Mahmoud Ahmed was later pushed out by Musharraf for his Islamist views). Nawaz’s recourse for the need to dismantle ‘state above state’ and accountability for election riggers rang loud. Then dropped the bombshells.
The build up to Oct 2020’s no-holds-barred speech in Gujranwala was similar. Nawaz criticised the hybrid regime for weeks at end.
The bombshell for Oct 2021 many (or at least I) anticipated dropped this week. PML-N Vice President Maryam Nawaz filed a petition directly accusing then DG Counterintelligence General Faiz Hameed of engineering the verdict in the conviction of Nawaz Sharif, herself and retd. Captain Safdar in Avenfield reference.
The petition, seeking annulment of the verdict in the Avenfield reference, stated General Faiz had visited Justice Shaukat Aziz Siddiqui to influence conviction and sentencing. The petition also cited the Supreme Court’s ruling on Khawaja Saad Rafique’s case which lamented NAB on its clear cut bias. This was followed by statements singling out the above-mentioned for bringing armed forces into disrepute by cobbling court benches and pressurising judiciary.
That a sitting, high ranking and notorious figure of the armed forces has been officially accused in a petition is novel for our politics. Last year, Nawaz struck the right chord with his Punjabi voter constituency by pitting the establishment kingpins against common folk. He held the miltablishment bosses directly accountable for the public’s woes. The petition and subsequent statements by Maryam this week single out the said person and blame them for unconstitutional actions such as cobbling court benches.
In effect, it has brought into mainstream the conversations that were rife in dining rooms. The usual whispers around key figure (s) involved in influencing high profile trials was, yesterday, debated across social media and talk shows after Maryam’s blunt press conferences. The top twitter trend was signatory of that. This is exactly why a well placed figure, close to high quarters in Pindi- commented this was ‘explosive’.
Moreover, mainstream politicians saying something out loud means the public isn’t afraid to speak. It empowers the people to think, speak up and question. Hence, for the first time, somebody in line to be military’s top man will have been debated with such intensity and scale months in advance.
Intended or otherwise, this also sets a precedent for future kingmakers. That a defiant political leadership will not continue to be passive and subservient, like those of the past. It forewarns them of a modicum of consequences if pushed against the wall.
But what of Shahbaz?
From the vantage point of Shahbaz Sharif, this represents a watershed moment. Shahbaz and PML-N doves have drummed up the need for reconciliation across all parties and stakeholders. Shahbaz has constantly argued for increased engagement with all stakeholders, as opposed to confrontation. The recent burst by Maryam stands in contrast to the PML-N president’s stance. The divide between two camps has further deepened, despite recent pictures showcasing unity.
The bombshell for Oct 2021 many (or at least I) anticipated dropped this week. PML-N Vice President Maryam Nawaz filed a petition directly accusing then DG Counterintelligence General Faiz Hameed of engineering the verdict in the conviction of Nawaz Sharif, herself and retd. Captain Safdar in Avenfield reference.
This will be worrisome for the PML-N think tank, who has desperately tried to merge both narratives into a super narrative that encapsulates Shahbaz’s reconciliatory approach and Nawaz’s penchant to root out structural imbalance in civil-military relations. But a recourse to ‘khidmat ko vote dou, vote ko izzat dou’ like 2018 would only spell further confusion. Unfortunately, party policies and public sloganeering cannot be built on approaches which are contradictory to each other. The electorate cannot be sold divergent approaches.
Just like PTI managed to convince the majority of its voters that corruption was the root cause of Pakistan’s woes, the PML-N must convince it’s voters (and members) that civil-military imbalance is the underlying cause of Pakistan’s many issues. While Nawaz and co have managed that to a certain extent, the stance propped up by Shahbaz Sharif has convoluted the landscape. The party workers, voters and members require a narrative they can coalesce around and keep them charged. Anything less would spell disaster. This confusion necessitates a resolution.
Where is Nawaz?
Nawaz continues to interchange between Avenfield and Edgeware. If the former PM truly aims to fight another election at odds with the powers that be, he must lead from Lahore.
His presence would inspire confidence across party ranks. It is well known by now that multiple PML-N members remain skeptical of Nawaz because he chooses to voice his opinions from the comfort of central London. His return would reconfirm his commitment to the cause and ensure the party’s rank and file remain aligned with his narrative. Second, Nawaz serving jail time would carve out more sympathy among his voters. Maryam can definitely carry the tune but Nawaz behind bars would emotionally charge crowds and voters.
On his GT road march post disqualification in the Panama Leaks case, Nawaz hinted at disclosing dark schemes that destabilised his government and resulted in his disqualification. Over the course of the last couple years, he has lived up to that promise, by pinpointing characters and instances. It is abundantly clear that a muddied and interesting winter awaits Pakistani politics.
