"Imran Khan will have to go home”, declared Asif Zardari recently. Alas, that’s easier said than done. If only Mr Zardari hadn’t been so cocksure about his “strategy of cooperation” with the Miltablishment. But Nawaz Sharif is in the same boat. If only he hadn’t been so rigid about his “strategy of defiance” of the Miltablishment. Indeed, if only both had not underestimated the rising worth of Imran Khan and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf to the Miltablishment.
The traditional parties are now paying the price for being unable to discern the rise of an angry, youthful, insecure, urbanizing middle-class that forms the support and recruitment base of both the PTI and the Miltablishment, which colours their mood and outlook and gels both together. The buzz word for both party and institution is “corruption”. Both passionately believe that an end to “corruption” will usher in an era of economic growth that would provide more, better paying jobs to the one and bigger “defense” budgets and security to the other. Both also favour a certain administrative set-up to achieve this end – a non-party local government at the lowest rung of the political ladder and a powerful political leader (President) right at the top in line with their mutual interests – Imran Khan being the charismatic, cultish agent for the change in the status quo that they seek. Both are pressurizing the other institutions of state and society like the judiciary, media, public accountability watchdogs and corporate regulators to do their bidding. The PTI provides the legitimate cover for the use of forceful measures by the Miltablishment.
It doesn’t much matter to them that there is no organic link between corruption and economic growth or political and administrative systems. Some very corrupt countries like China (a dictatorship) and India (a democracy), show the highest economic growth rates in the world. Nor indeed is there any evidence that the politico-administrative system they have in mind, which has been tried and abandoned at least three times in the past – during the decade-long dispensations of Generals Ayub Khan, Zia ul Haq and Pervez Musharraf and their civilian collaborators and puppets – will deliver this time round.
The Miltablishment has been an enduring pillar of the Pakistani state. Progressively, however, its Intel Agencies have acquired greater say in how its interests are managed. This is largely due to an overload of “national interest” duties beyond its eastern and western borders in the last four decades which have necessitated appropriate “political management” at home to be effective during times of civilian rule. This management began to make inroads into the political system during the PPP regime from 2008-13 when the PMLN, superior judiciary and corporate media were all successfully nudged into destablising the Zardari government and relegating the PPP from a national to a regional party. During the subsequent regime of Nawaz Sharif, a two-pronged strategy was undertaken to weaken it. First, Mr Sharif was pressured to go after Mr Zardari and the Sindh government on the pretext of a definite link between corruption and terrorism. Then, having alienated the two mainstream parties from each other, new life was breathed into the PTI and Imran Khan was catapulted to the commanding heights of opposition. Panamaleaks fortuitously provided a convenient plank to undo Mr Sharif while Mr Zardari watched anxiously from the sidelines. Come Elections 2018 and the dye was cast.
If Mr Sharif had played into the Miltablishment’s hands by targeting Mr Zardari, the latter now went the extra mile to endear himself to it by facilitating the rise of the PTI and its capture of parliaments at the centre and in the provinces in exchange for being allowed to rule in Sindh. Now, having rendered the PMLN and Mr Sharif impotent, the Miltablishment is going after Mr Zardari.
Both Mr Zardari and Mr Sharif have been “played”. Imran Khan has been planted firmly in the saddle. Efforts are afoot to “play” Shahbaz Sharif by driving a wedge between Shahbaz Sharif and Nawaz Sharif so that all remaining opposition to the Miltablishment’s “Grand Scheme to Reform Pakistan” is decimated.
Shortly after the 2018 elections, Maulana Fazal ur Rahman echoed Nawaz Sharif’s charge that the elections had been stolen from them. He asked both Nawaz Sharif and Asif Zardari not to sit in parliament and legitimize the new dispensation. Mr Zardari refused because he thought he would have at least a free hand to rule in Sindh. Nawaz Sharif refused because Shahbaz Sharif urged him to seek relief from imprisonment by cooperating with the Miltablishment. Now both must realise the grave error in their calculations.
Maulana Fazal wants to launch protests after the budget is announced because the people will be angrier and the Miltablishment possibly restless with Imran Khan’s leadership. Do Nawaz Sharif and Asif Zardari have the political courage to sacrifice their personal interests and endure hardship for the sake of their parties by heeding the Maulana’s advice? Or will they be “played” again? Crunch time is here.
The traditional parties are now paying the price for being unable to discern the rise of an angry, youthful, insecure, urbanizing middle-class that forms the support and recruitment base of both the PTI and the Miltablishment, which colours their mood and outlook and gels both together. The buzz word for both party and institution is “corruption”. Both passionately believe that an end to “corruption” will usher in an era of economic growth that would provide more, better paying jobs to the one and bigger “defense” budgets and security to the other. Both also favour a certain administrative set-up to achieve this end – a non-party local government at the lowest rung of the political ladder and a powerful political leader (President) right at the top in line with their mutual interests – Imran Khan being the charismatic, cultish agent for the change in the status quo that they seek. Both are pressurizing the other institutions of state and society like the judiciary, media, public accountability watchdogs and corporate regulators to do their bidding. The PTI provides the legitimate cover for the use of forceful measures by the Miltablishment.
It doesn’t much matter to them that there is no organic link between corruption and economic growth or political and administrative systems. Some very corrupt countries like China (a dictatorship) and India (a democracy), show the highest economic growth rates in the world. Nor indeed is there any evidence that the politico-administrative system they have in mind, which has been tried and abandoned at least three times in the past – during the decade-long dispensations of Generals Ayub Khan, Zia ul Haq and Pervez Musharraf and their civilian collaborators and puppets – will deliver this time round.
The Miltablishment has been an enduring pillar of the Pakistani state. Progressively, however, its Intel Agencies have acquired greater say in how its interests are managed. This is largely due to an overload of “national interest” duties beyond its eastern and western borders in the last four decades which have necessitated appropriate “political management” at home to be effective during times of civilian rule. This management began to make inroads into the political system during the PPP regime from 2008-13 when the PMLN, superior judiciary and corporate media were all successfully nudged into destablising the Zardari government and relegating the PPP from a national to a regional party. During the subsequent regime of Nawaz Sharif, a two-pronged strategy was undertaken to weaken it. First, Mr Sharif was pressured to go after Mr Zardari and the Sindh government on the pretext of a definite link between corruption and terrorism. Then, having alienated the two mainstream parties from each other, new life was breathed into the PTI and Imran Khan was catapulted to the commanding heights of opposition. Panamaleaks fortuitously provided a convenient plank to undo Mr Sharif while Mr Zardari watched anxiously from the sidelines. Come Elections 2018 and the dye was cast.
If Mr Sharif had played into the Miltablishment’s hands by targeting Mr Zardari, the latter now went the extra mile to endear himself to it by facilitating the rise of the PTI and its capture of parliaments at the centre and in the provinces in exchange for being allowed to rule in Sindh. Now, having rendered the PMLN and Mr Sharif impotent, the Miltablishment is going after Mr Zardari.
Both Mr Zardari and Mr Sharif have been “played”. Imran Khan has been planted firmly in the saddle. Efforts are afoot to “play” Shahbaz Sharif by driving a wedge between Shahbaz Sharif and Nawaz Sharif so that all remaining opposition to the Miltablishment’s “Grand Scheme to Reform Pakistan” is decimated.
Shortly after the 2018 elections, Maulana Fazal ur Rahman echoed Nawaz Sharif’s charge that the elections had been stolen from them. He asked both Nawaz Sharif and Asif Zardari not to sit in parliament and legitimize the new dispensation. Mr Zardari refused because he thought he would have at least a free hand to rule in Sindh. Nawaz Sharif refused because Shahbaz Sharif urged him to seek relief from imprisonment by cooperating with the Miltablishment. Now both must realise the grave error in their calculations.
Maulana Fazal wants to launch protests after the budget is announced because the people will be angrier and the Miltablishment possibly restless with Imran Khan’s leadership. Do Nawaz Sharif and Asif Zardari have the political courage to sacrifice their personal interests and endure hardship for the sake of their parties by heeding the Maulana’s advice? Or will they be “played” again? Crunch time is here.