A wounded regime is slowly bleeding to death. But it isn’t certain what will follow next. This is a remarkable truth even though the stars have been ordained to align with certain parties and political leaders in a massive and unprecedented pre-election rigging exercise.
In 1988 we knew that Benazir Bhutto would be elected as prime minister despite the Miltablishment’s opening bowlers, President Ishaq Khan, General Hameed Gul and General Mirza Aslam Beg, because she was the unstoppable heroine returning from exile to claim her martyred father’s crown. In 1991 we knew that the same Miltablishment had successfully discredited her in the eyes of the public and was actively involved in bringing Nawaz Sharif to power. In 1993, we knew the boot was on the other foot – Nawaz had stepped on the toes of the Miltablishment and provoked it to bring her back. And that is what happened. In 1997 we knew she had lost the confidence of both the people and the Miltablishment and Nawaz was coming back with their blessings. We knew once again in 2008 that Asif Zardari was going to successfully cash in her martyrdom and form government. And we weren’t wrong in 2008-2013 when the Miltablishment led by General Ashfaq Kayani and CJP Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry chipped away at the PPP government and paved the way for Nawaz to romp home.
So what’s the uncertainty this time round? Hasn’t the Miltablishment been taking pot shots at Nawaz since he put General Pervez Musharraf on trial for treason and challenged its political hegemony? Didn’t the Miltablishment dress up Imran Khan, Tahir ul Qadri et al to try and topple him with dharnas? Hasn’t it, by its every action and utterance, vowed to discard Nawaz for all time to come? Isn’t Imran Khan its blue-eyed boy? Hasn’t it successfully turned Asif Zardari, the MQM factions and the Baloch turncoats to line up behind its new blueprint for Pakistan in which the PTI is already throwing its weight around?
There are some critical differences between this situation and the ones in the past that led to regime change. First, the credibility of the Miltablishment was always high and that of its victim low in the eyes of the people. But this time round, the Miltablishment’s shenanigans have been exposed and its credentials are tarred. The continuing “confessions” of Generals Mirza Aslam Beg, Asad Durrani and Pervez Musharraf have shattered the myth of its political neutrality and dragged it down from the high moral ground as the sole keeper of the “national interest”.
Second, the memory of the questionable role of Generals Ashfaq Kayani and Ahmad Shuja Pasha in the Raymond Davis affair in 2011, followed by their failure or collusion in the Osama bin Laden affair in 2012, has not yet faded from the popular imagination. The MQM-related engineering, orchestration of Imran Khan’s dharnas, toppling of the Balochistan government, rigging of the Senate elections, defection of MNAs from South Punjab and their herding into the PTI, etc, all serve to portray the Miltablishment in a negative light.
Third, Nawaz has managed to consolidate a narrative of victimhood that has sunk in because it is so blatantly obvious that he is being targeted. Fourth, instead of meekly cowing down and accepting his fate as earlier victims of the Miltablishment did, Nawaz has made bold to challenge the charges against him and expose the crude machinations of the Miltablishment at a moment in time when its credibility is low. Fifth, the Miltablishment’s embrace of Asif Zardari, no less than Imran Khan’s corrupt, lota-choked PTI, is not exactly a shining source of political inspiration for a youthful generation longing for “real change” as an alternative. And so on.
To be sure, the Miltablishment is still all-powerful and its object-oriented policies and cold calculations cannot be underestimated. Imran Khan is still smelling victory and preening himself. Asif Zardari still thinks he is a kingmaker if not king himself. The NAB court is still expected to convict Nawaz. The tensions between Nawaz and Shahbaz over which political line to take vis a vis the Miltablishment are no secret. The PPP’s calculations in Sindh are solid and the independents in Balochistan are all lined up to do the needful when the time comes.
But here are some curious snags. Unrepentant, Nawaz and his daughter Mariam are still pulling big crowds. PMLN “electables” haven’t bolted enmasse. The Miltablishment is shunting “electables” as much into the camp of the PTI as into the stable of Independents, suggesting it wants to “control” the next parliament and its leader. It is anyone’s bet whether Imran will be PM or not, whether Zardari will be President or not, whether Shahbaz will be CM Punjab or not, and so on. The voter may yet defy the Miltablishment which is not as invincible as it once was nor as irreproachable.
Punjab holds the key. But only a foolish man would place his bets on any of the stakeholders on offer. The only certainty is that whatever follows will be chaotic and unproductive.
In 1988 we knew that Benazir Bhutto would be elected as prime minister despite the Miltablishment’s opening bowlers, President Ishaq Khan, General Hameed Gul and General Mirza Aslam Beg, because she was the unstoppable heroine returning from exile to claim her martyred father’s crown. In 1991 we knew that the same Miltablishment had successfully discredited her in the eyes of the public and was actively involved in bringing Nawaz Sharif to power. In 1993, we knew the boot was on the other foot – Nawaz had stepped on the toes of the Miltablishment and provoked it to bring her back. And that is what happened. In 1997 we knew she had lost the confidence of both the people and the Miltablishment and Nawaz was coming back with their blessings. We knew once again in 2008 that Asif Zardari was going to successfully cash in her martyrdom and form government. And we weren’t wrong in 2008-2013 when the Miltablishment led by General Ashfaq Kayani and CJP Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry chipped away at the PPP government and paved the way for Nawaz to romp home.
So what’s the uncertainty this time round? Hasn’t the Miltablishment been taking pot shots at Nawaz since he put General Pervez Musharraf on trial for treason and challenged its political hegemony? Didn’t the Miltablishment dress up Imran Khan, Tahir ul Qadri et al to try and topple him with dharnas? Hasn’t it, by its every action and utterance, vowed to discard Nawaz for all time to come? Isn’t Imran Khan its blue-eyed boy? Hasn’t it successfully turned Asif Zardari, the MQM factions and the Baloch turncoats to line up behind its new blueprint for Pakistan in which the PTI is already throwing its weight around?
There are some critical differences between this situation and the ones in the past that led to regime change. First, the credibility of the Miltablishment was always high and that of its victim low in the eyes of the people. But this time round, the Miltablishment’s shenanigans have been exposed and its credentials are tarred. The continuing “confessions” of Generals Mirza Aslam Beg, Asad Durrani and Pervez Musharraf have shattered the myth of its political neutrality and dragged it down from the high moral ground as the sole keeper of the “national interest”.
Second, the memory of the questionable role of Generals Ashfaq Kayani and Ahmad Shuja Pasha in the Raymond Davis affair in 2011, followed by their failure or collusion in the Osama bin Laden affair in 2012, has not yet faded from the popular imagination. The MQM-related engineering, orchestration of Imran Khan’s dharnas, toppling of the Balochistan government, rigging of the Senate elections, defection of MNAs from South Punjab and their herding into the PTI, etc, all serve to portray the Miltablishment in a negative light.
Third, Nawaz has managed to consolidate a narrative of victimhood that has sunk in because it is so blatantly obvious that he is being targeted. Fourth, instead of meekly cowing down and accepting his fate as earlier victims of the Miltablishment did, Nawaz has made bold to challenge the charges against him and expose the crude machinations of the Miltablishment at a moment in time when its credibility is low. Fifth, the Miltablishment’s embrace of Asif Zardari, no less than Imran Khan’s corrupt, lota-choked PTI, is not exactly a shining source of political inspiration for a youthful generation longing for “real change” as an alternative. And so on.
To be sure, the Miltablishment is still all-powerful and its object-oriented policies and cold calculations cannot be underestimated. Imran Khan is still smelling victory and preening himself. Asif Zardari still thinks he is a kingmaker if not king himself. The NAB court is still expected to convict Nawaz. The tensions between Nawaz and Shahbaz over which political line to take vis a vis the Miltablishment are no secret. The PPP’s calculations in Sindh are solid and the independents in Balochistan are all lined up to do the needful when the time comes.
But here are some curious snags. Unrepentant, Nawaz and his daughter Mariam are still pulling big crowds. PMLN “electables” haven’t bolted enmasse. The Miltablishment is shunting “electables” as much into the camp of the PTI as into the stable of Independents, suggesting it wants to “control” the next parliament and its leader. It is anyone’s bet whether Imran will be PM or not, whether Zardari will be President or not, whether Shahbaz will be CM Punjab or not, and so on. The voter may yet defy the Miltablishment which is not as invincible as it once was nor as irreproachable.
Punjab holds the key. But only a foolish man would place his bets on any of the stakeholders on offer. The only certainty is that whatever follows will be chaotic and unproductive.