United States President Donald Trump has left Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and the world powers –which was once celebrated as a milestone in international cooperation on non-proliferation.
It is as clear as day that the unravelling of this agreement would be bad not only for Iran, but also for US and Iran’s immediate volatile neighbourhood, which includes countries which had been opposing JCPOA enthusiastically.
In a televised speech from the White House, Trump announced that US was exiting from the agreement, accusing Iran of continuing to nurture nuclear ambitions. He did not give any evidence to back his claim even though the global nuclear watchdog International Atomic Energy Agency, which was responsible for verification of Iran’s compliance with the accord, has at least on 10 occasions confirmed that Iran was doing what was required of it.
Lest one forget, those IAEA certifications came through after Iran significantly scaled back its nuclear program, giving up 98 percent of its stockpile of enriched uranium, dismantling two-thirds of its operating centrifuges, converting several enrichment facilities into research centres and ratifying the Additional Protocol of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty that provided for some very intrusive IAEA inspections.
Trump used Israeli intelligence that was, a few days earlier, unveiled by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with great fanfare. Notwithstanding how others saw Israel’s “smuggled” trove on Iranian nuclear program, it had failed to convince American intelligence officials that it was new and current. But, somehow Trump, the man who mattered the most, felt convinced and used Bibi’s words “Iran lied” while ratifying Tel Aviv’s claim. The US president said, “Today, we have definitive proof that this Iranian promise was a lie.”
And it was a no coincidence that shortly after Trump’s announcement that Israel hit targets in Syria. There lay the fears of escalation in the Middle East. The region is like a pressure cooker ready to blow up and Trump has just hastened the inevitable eruption.
Trump’s relentless hostility to the Iran nuclear deal was known to everyone and it was his election promise to get it revoked. What was not known was that he would ignore the reports that the agreement was holding and the advice that it was in US interest to continue with it, and he even put his trans-Atlantic allies, who are also signatories to the pact, in a tight spot. Above all, one could not have expected a US president to have put the credibility of his country’s commitments at stake. We shouldn’t forget that one of the many reasons why Trump fired his secretary of state Rex Tillerson was his opposition to quitting the agreement.
The line-up of supporters and critics of Trump’s decision to quit the deal gives an interesting read. Russia, China, United Kingdom, France, Germany, European Union, Turkey, and UN Secretary General have all reaffirmed their support for the deal. Pakistan had not given its reaction till the filing of this report, but had been supporting the continuation of JCPOA till recently. Former US President Barak Obama, under whose watch the agreement was signed, and his chief negotiator in JCPOA talks and the then Secretary of State John Kerry have also opposed Trump’s decision. The Elders, an independent group of global leaders working together for peace and human rights, represented through their chair former UN Secretary-General and a Nobel Peace Laureate Kofi Annan, former UNSG Ban Ki Moon, and Gro Harlem Brundtland, deputy chair of the group and former prime minister of Norway, regretted Trump’s decision and called for a preventing broader escalation of tensions across the Middle East. A number of US serving and retired military and intelligence officers had openly advocated that US should not exit and criticised the departure.
Meanwhile, voices in support of US leaving JCPOA came from Israel, Saudi Arabia and UAE.
General Martin Dempsey, who served as the 18th Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff and by no stretch of imagination an Iran friend, summed up the implications of Trump’s move in his tweet: “We walked away from allies and withdrew from the Iran Nuclear Agreement. Yet strategically we should share complex problems. Fewer partners means fewer options. We are now alone on a more dangerous path with fewer options. We’ll see.”
General Dempsy is pointing towards how Trump ignored the European allies, who are for the time being not ready to leave the deal. Just as Trump was preparing to quit the agreement, EU/E3 was holding consultations with Iran on JCPOA in Brussels and renewed its support to “the continued full and effective implementation of the JCPOA by all sides.” The Europeans maintained the same position even after Trump’s announcement and High Representative/Vice-President Federica Mogherini in a statement asked the US to reconsider its move. Mogherini reminded the US that it is a multilateral treaty, which cannot be unilaterally terminated by any one of the signatories, especially when Iran was in compliance.
“The nuclear deal with Iran is crucial for the security of the region, of Europe and of the entire world,” Mogherini maintained. EU leaders were very categorical in cautioning that non-proliferation regime could be weakened by US actions.
Iran’s response, in which it clearly avoided a knee-jerk reaction and decided to pursue the policy of wait and watch, is predicated on this EU commitment, which must have been conveyed to Tehran earlier.
Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani, speaking in Tehran soon after Trump’s announcement said, “Now we have to wait and see what the six major countries will do in this situation. Our Foreign Ministry will begin talks with the European sides, China and Russia in a few weeks.”
He cautioned that the agreement would remain intact as long as the remaining five countries abide by its obligations.
But there are some very real concerns as to how long the EU would remain steadfast and not succumb to pressure the US. There is very little hope of that happening, but if it were to continue like that, it would have major consequences for the unipolar world.
Mogherini has, in principle, reiterated support for JCPOA. However, she has also noted that her bloc’s future course of action would be determined by “its security interests and … its economic investments.” It would be difficult for EU to defy revived and strengthened US sanctions against Iran and that would be the end of the journey for what was flaunted as a model for resolution of disputes through negotiations.
EU is beginning its internal consultations and so is Iran, reaching out to other JCPOA signatories to find out how they would abide by the commitments made to Iran under the agreement after US pull out.
Another unrelated development that could get affected by Trump’s decision is the planned US-North Korea summit. North Korea would now suspect any assurances and promises extended to them by Trump or his administration’s officials. Iranian leaders, especially the hardliners, would be reminded of the North Korea as an example as to how potent is the deterrent power of nuclearisation, which forced US to talks at the table.
The writer is a free-lance journalist based in Islamabad
Email: mamoonarubab@gmail.com
Twitter: @bokhari_mr
It is as clear as day that the unravelling of this agreement would be bad not only for Iran, but also for US and Iran’s immediate volatile neighbourhood, which includes countries which had been opposing JCPOA enthusiastically.
In a televised speech from the White House, Trump announced that US was exiting from the agreement, accusing Iran of continuing to nurture nuclear ambitions. He did not give any evidence to back his claim even though the global nuclear watchdog International Atomic Energy Agency, which was responsible for verification of Iran’s compliance with the accord, has at least on 10 occasions confirmed that Iran was doing what was required of it.
Lest one forget, those IAEA certifications came through after Iran significantly scaled back its nuclear program, giving up 98 percent of its stockpile of enriched uranium, dismantling two-thirds of its operating centrifuges, converting several enrichment facilities into research centres and ratifying the Additional Protocol of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty that provided for some very intrusive IAEA inspections.
Trump's relentless hostility to the Iran nuclear deal was known to everyone and it was his election promise to get it revoked
Trump used Israeli intelligence that was, a few days earlier, unveiled by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with great fanfare. Notwithstanding how others saw Israel’s “smuggled” trove on Iranian nuclear program, it had failed to convince American intelligence officials that it was new and current. But, somehow Trump, the man who mattered the most, felt convinced and used Bibi’s words “Iran lied” while ratifying Tel Aviv’s claim. The US president said, “Today, we have definitive proof that this Iranian promise was a lie.”
And it was a no coincidence that shortly after Trump’s announcement that Israel hit targets in Syria. There lay the fears of escalation in the Middle East. The region is like a pressure cooker ready to blow up and Trump has just hastened the inevitable eruption.
Trump’s relentless hostility to the Iran nuclear deal was known to everyone and it was his election promise to get it revoked. What was not known was that he would ignore the reports that the agreement was holding and the advice that it was in US interest to continue with it, and he even put his trans-Atlantic allies, who are also signatories to the pact, in a tight spot. Above all, one could not have expected a US president to have put the credibility of his country’s commitments at stake. We shouldn’t forget that one of the many reasons why Trump fired his secretary of state Rex Tillerson was his opposition to quitting the agreement.
The line-up of supporters and critics of Trump’s decision to quit the deal gives an interesting read. Russia, China, United Kingdom, France, Germany, European Union, Turkey, and UN Secretary General have all reaffirmed their support for the deal. Pakistan had not given its reaction till the filing of this report, but had been supporting the continuation of JCPOA till recently. Former US President Barak Obama, under whose watch the agreement was signed, and his chief negotiator in JCPOA talks and the then Secretary of State John Kerry have also opposed Trump’s decision. The Elders, an independent group of global leaders working together for peace and human rights, represented through their chair former UN Secretary-General and a Nobel Peace Laureate Kofi Annan, former UNSG Ban Ki Moon, and Gro Harlem Brundtland, deputy chair of the group and former prime minister of Norway, regretted Trump’s decision and called for a preventing broader escalation of tensions across the Middle East. A number of US serving and retired military and intelligence officers had openly advocated that US should not exit and criticised the departure.
Meanwhile, voices in support of US leaving JCPOA came from Israel, Saudi Arabia and UAE.
General Martin Dempsey, who served as the 18th Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff and by no stretch of imagination an Iran friend, summed up the implications of Trump’s move in his tweet: “We walked away from allies and withdrew from the Iran Nuclear Agreement. Yet strategically we should share complex problems. Fewer partners means fewer options. We are now alone on a more dangerous path with fewer options. We’ll see.”
General Dempsy is pointing towards how Trump ignored the European allies, who are for the time being not ready to leave the deal. Just as Trump was preparing to quit the agreement, EU/E3 was holding consultations with Iran on JCPOA in Brussels and renewed its support to “the continued full and effective implementation of the JCPOA by all sides.” The Europeans maintained the same position even after Trump’s announcement and High Representative/Vice-President Federica Mogherini in a statement asked the US to reconsider its move. Mogherini reminded the US that it is a multilateral treaty, which cannot be unilaterally terminated by any one of the signatories, especially when Iran was in compliance.
“The nuclear deal with Iran is crucial for the security of the region, of Europe and of the entire world,” Mogherini maintained. EU leaders were very categorical in cautioning that non-proliferation regime could be weakened by US actions.
Iran’s response, in which it clearly avoided a knee-jerk reaction and decided to pursue the policy of wait and watch, is predicated on this EU commitment, which must have been conveyed to Tehran earlier.
Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani, speaking in Tehran soon after Trump’s announcement said, “Now we have to wait and see what the six major countries will do in this situation. Our Foreign Ministry will begin talks with the European sides, China and Russia in a few weeks.”
He cautioned that the agreement would remain intact as long as the remaining five countries abide by its obligations.
But there are some very real concerns as to how long the EU would remain steadfast and not succumb to pressure the US. There is very little hope of that happening, but if it were to continue like that, it would have major consequences for the unipolar world.
Mogherini has, in principle, reiterated support for JCPOA. However, she has also noted that her bloc’s future course of action would be determined by “its security interests and … its economic investments.” It would be difficult for EU to defy revived and strengthened US sanctions against Iran and that would be the end of the journey for what was flaunted as a model for resolution of disputes through negotiations.
EU is beginning its internal consultations and so is Iran, reaching out to other JCPOA signatories to find out how they would abide by the commitments made to Iran under the agreement after US pull out.
Another unrelated development that could get affected by Trump’s decision is the planned US-North Korea summit. North Korea would now suspect any assurances and promises extended to them by Trump or his administration’s officials. Iranian leaders, especially the hardliners, would be reminded of the North Korea as an example as to how potent is the deterrent power of nuclearisation, which forced US to talks at the table.
The writer is a free-lance journalist based in Islamabad
Email: mamoonarubab@gmail.com
Twitter: @bokhari_mr