Contacts between Pakistan, Afghanistan and the United States suggest that preparations to resume the Afghan peace process are getting into high gear.
Efforts to revive the peace process have been building for some time, but it was at the Kabul Process II conference on February 28, when President Ashraf Ghani offered the Taliban dialogue in the most unequivocal terms to date, gave the initiative a much needed fillip.
Hours after Ghani’s speech, Afghanistan’s ambassador to Pakistan Omar Zakhilwal was meeting Pakistan’s National Security Adviser Lt Gen (retired) Nasser Janjua, explaining the presidential offer and seeking Islamabad’s help. Gen Janjua immediately expressed Pakistan’s support and the two concluded their meeting with an agreement to “seize this moment collectively and maintain their contacts in pursuit of the common objective”.
After consultations at home, the NSA finally travelled to Kabul on March 17, carrying a message of “complete support for the peace offer”. Encouraged by the response, President Ghani invited Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi to visit Afghanistan to “initiate state-to-state comprehensive dialogue”, another crucial step that had long been held up due to distrust in Kabul about Pakistan.
At the same time another important meeting took place. PM Abbasi, who was on a private visit to the US, met Vice President Mike Pence alone in Washington to discuss Afghanistan. The interaction was initially planned to be kept out of the media glare. But, later it came out and the American side also issued a media note on the meeting and held a background briefing for journalists. From the media note and the sense coming out from the background briefing, the Pence-Abbasi meeting was nothing more than usual lecturing by US leaders, who have been asking Pakistan to do more.
Putting the two events together, it is not difficult to make out that while Kabul is incentivizing Islamabad to help, Washington is keeping up the pressure. Pence had told Abbasi that “efforts to eliminate terrorist groups, who threaten US security and stability of the region will continue” and that the US is prepared to take action to protect its personnel in Afghanistan if Islamabad fails to prevent cross-border attacks. The Pentagon later clarified that crossing over into Pakistan was not allowed in routine operational engagement rules.
Pakistan’s ambassador to the US, Aizaz Chaudhry, in a meeting with Women’s Foreign Policy Group in Washington confirmed that there were renewed efforts to revive the Afghan peace dialogue.
But the big question remains: how different is the latest push and what are its prospects?
The most important thing to notice is the major shift in Afghanistan’s position. President Ghani not only offered unconditional talks, he also indicated his readiness to recognize the Taliban as a legitimate political group. There are no deadlines. The Taliban were directly addressed and asked to come to the table and there was no aggressive tone in the message.
Moreover, President Ghani has said that he aims “not to win the war but to end it”.
The Taliban’s annual spring offensive usually begins in April and secondly, the parliamentary elections in Afghanistan are scheduled for July later this year. Kabul would, therefore, be under pressure to somehow manage a reduction in violence.
The Taliban are, meanwhile, believed to be considering the offer. Although there is no direct proof that the offer was being considered, but most analysts believe that their silence suggests this because in the past they would outrightly reject such offers. At the same time, another camp would point fingers at the attacks in Helmand, Farah and Kabul, all of which happened after the Feb 28 offer.
American intelligence also hints that the offer is being considered. US and NATO Commander in Afghanistan Gen John Nicholson, in a statement in Kabul, said: “We know a lot is going on right now, I mean, this offer, I think, is being considered [by the Taliban]. We haven’t seen a public response [to the dialogue offer] which is interesting.”
The militant group has so far been saying that it wanted to talk directly with the US as the occupation force and it would not engage the Afghan government because in its view it (Ghani government) lacked legitimacy.
At the same time, the Taliban are under pressure and the stalemate persists. Despite the territorial gains made last year, they have not been able to gain control of any provincial headquarters, which could have given them a psychological advantage in the conflict.
It, therefore, seems probable that the Taliban would be having a serious look at the offer. But, with deep divisions in their ranks, unlike in the past when Mullah Omar was leading the group, it is believed that negotiations and fighting would continue side by side.
The writer is a freelance journalist based in Islamabad and can be reached at mamoonarubab@gmail.com @bokhari_mr
Efforts to revive the peace process have been building for some time, but it was at the Kabul Process II conference on February 28, when President Ashraf Ghani offered the Taliban dialogue in the most unequivocal terms to date, gave the initiative a much needed fillip.
Hours after Ghani’s speech, Afghanistan’s ambassador to Pakistan Omar Zakhilwal was meeting Pakistan’s National Security Adviser Lt Gen (retired) Nasser Janjua, explaining the presidential offer and seeking Islamabad’s help. Gen Janjua immediately expressed Pakistan’s support and the two concluded their meeting with an agreement to “seize this moment collectively and maintain their contacts in pursuit of the common objective”.
After consultations at home, the NSA finally travelled to Kabul on March 17, carrying a message of “complete support for the peace offer”. Encouraged by the response, President Ghani invited Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi to visit Afghanistan to “initiate state-to-state comprehensive dialogue”, another crucial step that had long been held up due to distrust in Kabul about Pakistan.
President Ghani not only offered unconditional talks, he also indicated his readiness to recognize the Taliban as a legitimate political group. There are no deadlines. The Taliban were directly addressed and asked to come to the table and there was no aggressive tone in the message
At the same time another important meeting took place. PM Abbasi, who was on a private visit to the US, met Vice President Mike Pence alone in Washington to discuss Afghanistan. The interaction was initially planned to be kept out of the media glare. But, later it came out and the American side also issued a media note on the meeting and held a background briefing for journalists. From the media note and the sense coming out from the background briefing, the Pence-Abbasi meeting was nothing more than usual lecturing by US leaders, who have been asking Pakistan to do more.
Putting the two events together, it is not difficult to make out that while Kabul is incentivizing Islamabad to help, Washington is keeping up the pressure. Pence had told Abbasi that “efforts to eliminate terrorist groups, who threaten US security and stability of the region will continue” and that the US is prepared to take action to protect its personnel in Afghanistan if Islamabad fails to prevent cross-border attacks. The Pentagon later clarified that crossing over into Pakistan was not allowed in routine operational engagement rules.
Pakistan’s ambassador to the US, Aizaz Chaudhry, in a meeting with Women’s Foreign Policy Group in Washington confirmed that there were renewed efforts to revive the Afghan peace dialogue.
But the big question remains: how different is the latest push and what are its prospects?
The most important thing to notice is the major shift in Afghanistan’s position. President Ghani not only offered unconditional talks, he also indicated his readiness to recognize the Taliban as a legitimate political group. There are no deadlines. The Taliban were directly addressed and asked to come to the table and there was no aggressive tone in the message.
Moreover, President Ghani has said that he aims “not to win the war but to end it”.
The Taliban’s annual spring offensive usually begins in April and secondly, the parliamentary elections in Afghanistan are scheduled for July later this year. Kabul would, therefore, be under pressure to somehow manage a reduction in violence.
The Taliban are, meanwhile, believed to be considering the offer. Although there is no direct proof that the offer was being considered, but most analysts believe that their silence suggests this because in the past they would outrightly reject such offers. At the same time, another camp would point fingers at the attacks in Helmand, Farah and Kabul, all of which happened after the Feb 28 offer.
American intelligence also hints that the offer is being considered. US and NATO Commander in Afghanistan Gen John Nicholson, in a statement in Kabul, said: “We know a lot is going on right now, I mean, this offer, I think, is being considered [by the Taliban]. We haven’t seen a public response [to the dialogue offer] which is interesting.”
The militant group has so far been saying that it wanted to talk directly with the US as the occupation force and it would not engage the Afghan government because in its view it (Ghani government) lacked legitimacy.
At the same time, the Taliban are under pressure and the stalemate persists. Despite the territorial gains made last year, they have not been able to gain control of any provincial headquarters, which could have given them a psychological advantage in the conflict.
It, therefore, seems probable that the Taliban would be having a serious look at the offer. But, with deep divisions in their ranks, unlike in the past when Mullah Omar was leading the group, it is believed that negotiations and fighting would continue side by side.
The writer is a freelance journalist based in Islamabad and can be reached at mamoonarubab@gmail.com @bokhari_mr