The former prime minister got on the warpath with the judiciary. The Chief Justice of Pakistan snapped, declaring the judiciary the father of all institutions. The Chief of Army Staff offered to resign if any involvement in anti-government protests were proven. The Pakistan Peoples Party co-chairperson beefed up his bargaining position with his words and actions. The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf chairman cherished his exoneration. And the gossiper of Rawalpindi once again predicted the collapse of the government within a month.
In the face of all these developments, the two largest political parties in Parliament managed to pass the 24th constitutional amendment, enabling the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) start work on delimitations (or constituency boundary drawing) on the basis of the provisional results of the recent census. (The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics says the final census numbers would be ready latest by April 2018).
Though cynics still insist on a premature dissolution of the assemblies, two events allay fears that they will not complete their five-year constitutional terms. First was the maiden visit of Chief of Army Staff Qamar Javed Bajwa to the Senate, where he assured the lawmakers that the military would not intervene in civilian affairs. The second was the passage of the 24th constitutional amendment after both the PML-N and the PPP cleared up the uncertainty, showed magnanimity and paved the way for elections on time.
Senior leaders of the PML-N and the PPP explained that delimitation could cause long delays in holding the general elections. If this amendment to the constitution had not been passed, the ECP would have announced that it was unable to hold the election (due in either August or September), creating a constitutional vacuum.
The term of the existing assemblies is coming to an end on June 9, 2018. Provided it completes its tenure, a caretaker government must hold elections within 60 days. If the assemblies are dissolved before June 9, the caretaker government would then have 90 days to hold the elections. Under no circumstances can the tenure of a caretaker government be stretched beyond 90 days.
If the ECP fails to complete delimitation and the caretaker government fails to hold elections with the constitutional framework, the Supreme Court can be consulted to extend the caretaker’s tenure, perhaps under Article 254 of the Constitution. It reads: “When any act or thing is required by the Constitution to be done within a particular period and it is not done within that period, the doing of the act or thing shall not be invalid or otherwise ineffective by reason only that it was not done within that period.”
Such fears were aired during several meeting between the PML-N and the PPP.
Senator Taj Haider of the PPP revealed that the two largest parties had inked a written agreement that ensured the passage of the 24th amendment through the Senate. Until March 2018 the PPP holds a majority in the Senate. The agreement was signed after Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi promised to remove the PPP grievances against the census. The PPP’s major objection on the census was the formula of the headcount in Sindh. The census manager did not include migrants and the illegal population of Sindh in the provisional results of the census.
Senator Haider said Leader of the House Senator Raja Zafarul Haq agreed to become a guarantor to ensure the implementation of the agreement. He said a one percent difference between the provisional and final results of the census would be acceptable. “Any big difference would put a question mark on the entire process,” he added.
Chief Statistician Asif Bajwa stated that the difference between the provisional and final results could be more than one percent. When asked if delimitation on the basis of provisional results would create a political crisis, he said that political parties should answer that question. He rejected criticism saying that best practices were used to conduct the 6th census that cost the national exchequer Rs30 billion. The provisional results found more as many as 201 million people are living in Pakistan.
Political parties had already agreed to adjust constituencies on the basis of the provisional results. The most populous Punjab province would be the biggest loser if the delimitation of constituencies is done before the 2018 general elections.
Punjab will cede nine National Assembly seats, including seven general and two reserved for women. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa will gain four general seats and one reserved for women. Balochistan will get two additional general seats and one for women. The Islamabad Capital Territory will get one additional seat, while there will be no change in the seats of Sindh and FATA. The total number of NA seats will remain 342.
Sources said former president Asif Ali Zardari seeks at least, 60 National Assembly seats in the next general elections. He is looking for around 20 from Punjab, once its bastion if power when Zulfikar Ali Bhutto used to keep audiences spellbound with his oratory at the historical Bhatti Gate.
A former prime minister and a former Senate chairman were engaged in dialogue with the PML-N leaders, asking them to facilitate more or less two dozen of the PPP candidates in Punjab. The two sides have yet to finalize the bargain and are struggling to find common ground that would benefit both.
The PPP’s Asif Zardari sent a message to former prime minister Nawaz Sharif that the two parties, like in 2008, could form a coalition government as long as their alliance killed the chances of Imran Khan securing a majority in the National Assembly or avoided the occurrence of a soft coup to be followed by a technocratic set-up for a long time.
Apparently, the PPP enjoys the best bargaining position at the moment. It seeks a significant comeback in Punjab. And the fuss it created over the provisional census results and delimitation of constituencies on the basis of those results seemed to have paid off.
While making a so-called Faustian bargain with Asif Zardari, the former prime minister and his associates intensified their anti-judiciary tirade. First, the former prime minister recalled judicial history, replete with pro-dictator decisions and oaths under the PCOs. He was adamant about launching a country-wide campaign against the recent apex court decisions. He felt the honourable judges were biased against him and in favour of Imran Khan. Railways minister Khawaja Saad Rafique took a lead and said: “It’s obvious that Nawaz Sharif and his family members are being targeted through judicial decisions.”
PML-N insiders say a lot of soul-searching is taking place within the party these days. The former prime minister has been advised by a number of senior leaders to avoid confrontation with the judiciary. They advised him that the only way forward was to nominate Shehbaz Sharif as the next candidate for the office of prime minister. They suggested both the former prime minister and his daughter Maryam Nawaz should take a back seat and let things move forward.
The writer is an Islamabad-based journalist. He tweets @OldPakistan_
In the face of all these developments, the two largest political parties in Parliament managed to pass the 24th constitutional amendment, enabling the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) start work on delimitations (or constituency boundary drawing) on the basis of the provisional results of the recent census. (The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics says the final census numbers would be ready latest by April 2018).
Though cynics still insist on a premature dissolution of the assemblies, two events allay fears that they will not complete their five-year constitutional terms. First was the maiden visit of Chief of Army Staff Qamar Javed Bajwa to the Senate, where he assured the lawmakers that the military would not intervene in civilian affairs. The second was the passage of the 24th constitutional amendment after both the PML-N and the PPP cleared up the uncertainty, showed magnanimity and paved the way for elections on time.
Senior leaders of the PML-N and the PPP explained that delimitation could cause long delays in holding the general elections. If this amendment to the constitution had not been passed, the ECP would have announced that it was unable to hold the election (due in either August or September), creating a constitutional vacuum.
The term of the existing assemblies is coming to an end on June 9, 2018. Provided it completes its tenure, a caretaker government must hold elections within 60 days. If the assemblies are dissolved before June 9, the caretaker government would then have 90 days to hold the elections. Under no circumstances can the tenure of a caretaker government be stretched beyond 90 days.
If the ECP fails to complete delimitation and the caretaker government fails to hold elections with the constitutional framework, the Supreme Court can be consulted to extend the caretaker’s tenure, perhaps under Article 254 of the Constitution. It reads: “When any act or thing is required by the Constitution to be done within a particular period and it is not done within that period, the doing of the act or thing shall not be invalid or otherwise ineffective by reason only that it was not done within that period.”
Such fears were aired during several meeting between the PML-N and the PPP.
In the face of all these developments, the two largest political parties in Parliament managed to pass the 24th constitutional amendment, enabling the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) start work on delimitations (or constituency boundary drawing) on the basis of the provisional results of the recent census
Senator Taj Haider of the PPP revealed that the two largest parties had inked a written agreement that ensured the passage of the 24th amendment through the Senate. Until March 2018 the PPP holds a majority in the Senate. The agreement was signed after Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi promised to remove the PPP grievances against the census. The PPP’s major objection on the census was the formula of the headcount in Sindh. The census manager did not include migrants and the illegal population of Sindh in the provisional results of the census.
Senator Haider said Leader of the House Senator Raja Zafarul Haq agreed to become a guarantor to ensure the implementation of the agreement. He said a one percent difference between the provisional and final results of the census would be acceptable. “Any big difference would put a question mark on the entire process,” he added.
Chief Statistician Asif Bajwa stated that the difference between the provisional and final results could be more than one percent. When asked if delimitation on the basis of provisional results would create a political crisis, he said that political parties should answer that question. He rejected criticism saying that best practices were used to conduct the 6th census that cost the national exchequer Rs30 billion. The provisional results found more as many as 201 million people are living in Pakistan.
Political parties had already agreed to adjust constituencies on the basis of the provisional results. The most populous Punjab province would be the biggest loser if the delimitation of constituencies is done before the 2018 general elections.
Punjab will cede nine National Assembly seats, including seven general and two reserved for women. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa will gain four general seats and one reserved for women. Balochistan will get two additional general seats and one for women. The Islamabad Capital Territory will get one additional seat, while there will be no change in the seats of Sindh and FATA. The total number of NA seats will remain 342.
Sources said former president Asif Ali Zardari seeks at least, 60 National Assembly seats in the next general elections. He is looking for around 20 from Punjab, once its bastion if power when Zulfikar Ali Bhutto used to keep audiences spellbound with his oratory at the historical Bhatti Gate.
A former prime minister and a former Senate chairman were engaged in dialogue with the PML-N leaders, asking them to facilitate more or less two dozen of the PPP candidates in Punjab. The two sides have yet to finalize the bargain and are struggling to find common ground that would benefit both.
The PPP’s Asif Zardari sent a message to former prime minister Nawaz Sharif that the two parties, like in 2008, could form a coalition government as long as their alliance killed the chances of Imran Khan securing a majority in the National Assembly or avoided the occurrence of a soft coup to be followed by a technocratic set-up for a long time.
Apparently, the PPP enjoys the best bargaining position at the moment. It seeks a significant comeback in Punjab. And the fuss it created over the provisional census results and delimitation of constituencies on the basis of those results seemed to have paid off.
While making a so-called Faustian bargain with Asif Zardari, the former prime minister and his associates intensified their anti-judiciary tirade. First, the former prime minister recalled judicial history, replete with pro-dictator decisions and oaths under the PCOs. He was adamant about launching a country-wide campaign against the recent apex court decisions. He felt the honourable judges were biased against him and in favour of Imran Khan. Railways minister Khawaja Saad Rafique took a lead and said: “It’s obvious that Nawaz Sharif and his family members are being targeted through judicial decisions.”
PML-N insiders say a lot of soul-searching is taking place within the party these days. The former prime minister has been advised by a number of senior leaders to avoid confrontation with the judiciary. They advised him that the only way forward was to nominate Shehbaz Sharif as the next candidate for the office of prime minister. They suggested both the former prime minister and his daughter Maryam Nawaz should take a back seat and let things move forward.
The writer is an Islamabad-based journalist. He tweets @OldPakistan_