It is difficult sitting here on a Sunday morning to write coherently about politics, whether American politics, or those of other parts of the globe, when the North American continent seems to be under attack by Mother Nature. As I write, much of the Southeastern US is under water, from two of the strongest hurricanes to have ever hit the US mainland, while much of the Western US is burning up from an extraordinary number of forest and grass fires. To add to the pain, our neighbor, Mexico, suffered only a couple of days ago the strongest earthquake it has recorded in 100 years, which has caused much damage and killed a large number of people.
The tidal surges and biblical rainfall of Hurricane Harvey brought death and immense destruction to Southeastern Texas, Louisiana and other parts of the Gulf of Mexico area of the US. As I sit here tapping on the keyboard, Hurricane Irma is wreaking havoc in both east and west Florida and working its way up the Western coast of that state before, at least as now predicted, heading inland through Georgia and states to the north through which it will deposit huge quantities of rain which will surely cause widespread flooding. The weakening remnants will likely affect Washington before it dies out, though certainly not to the extent that it affects areas further south. To make matters worse, Hurricane Jose is following on Irma’s heels (to use perhaps an inappropriate metaphor) and already threatening Caribbean islands that Irma has already ravaged.
I have just returned from California, from a Western America that is ravaged by the worst forest and grass fires in a very long time. I have read reports that at least 172 different fires are burning in at least eight states. This comprises most of the states west of the Rocky Mountains. The Forest Service of the USG estimates that about 80 of these fires are “large,” in the sense that they involve areas of over 100 forested acres or 300 grasslands acres.
This summer, over 8m acres in the Western states have burned. That is about twice the average number of acres that have burned over the past 10 years. An overly plentiful amount of precipitation, rain and snow, during the winter months broke the droughts that had plagued several states, especially California. This precipitation led to a luxuriant growth of grass and undergrowth in the forests and grasslands. But a dry summer has made much of this growth into tinder for any spark that comes along. Unfortunately far too many of those sparks are manmade.
While the fire situation in California is dire, it is the Pacific Northwest, Oregon and Washington, as well as Montana that have fared the worst in this fire season. Oregon is especially bad; a dozen fires, at least, are raging in that state. A fire in the Chetco Bar Wilderness has burned about 175,000 acres since July 12, while the Eagle Creek fire, just 30 miles east of the major city of Portland has burned over 30,000 acres of the celebrated Columbia River Gorge since Saturday, September 2.
The costs of fighting these fires has some states raiding other accounts for funds. Montana, for example has spent $20 million more than it budgeted for firefighting this year. Across the West, over 26,000 firefighters have been engaged most of the summer. There is a human cost too as nine firefighters have been killed and 35 injured. Homes, livestock, infrastructure, are also casualties.
In Mexico, 90 people are known to have died in the strongest earthquake to have hit Mexico in 100 years. It registered 8.1 on the Richter Scale, and the damage has been extensive in the remote Southern area where it centered. Details of the damage and the fatalities are sparse at present.
Estimates of the cost of rebuilding and restoring Houston and the other flooded areas after Hurricane Harvey alone run in excess of $100 billion. Hurricane Irma, which is even more powerful and larger in size, may displace as many as 100,000 people in Florida; it certainly will cause unimaginable damage, and is likely to be even more costly. This certainly puts what was thought to be the major upcoming partisan political battles in a very different light. Few elected officials, particularly in Congress, will be able to say no to providing the resources needed to respond to the needs of what may be a very large number of people who need government help to put their lives back together. In the post-hurricane context, many voters will ask if it makes sense to view tax reform, as President Trump does, as way to reduce the taxes of the wealthy and of corporations. They may ask also if the amount of our national budget going to the military should not be pared to help pay for these natural disasters.
Harvey has taken care of one set of questions which a week ago looked to be partisan problems—the debt ceiling and the first tranche of hurricane relief. In an unparalleled meeting of Congressional leaders with President Trump, a deal was cut to raise the debt ceiling for three months and pass a $15 billion emergency funding bill for the hurricane victims. Congressional Republicans were stunned. With them in the room arguing against it, Trump walked right into a Democratic trap. In doing so he gave the Democrats enormous leverage in the December struggles over a budget, and in their effort to find a legislative solution for the 800,000 “dreamers,” those undocumented young immigrants who immigrated illegally with their parents at a very young age, and who have known no other country as their home. They were exempted from deportation by an executive order signed by President Obama, when he couldn’t get Congress to pass legislation authorizing it in 2014. Trump has said he will rescind the EO in six months if Congress doesn’t find a legislative way to legalize their status. And beyond that this deal gives the Democrats leverage in all the partisan Congressional actions that will be debated in the winter and spring, e.g. health care. As one disgruntled Republican Senator was quoted as saying, “Schumer [Democratic leader in the Senate] has inserted himself into all negotiations in the winter.”
Why did Trump, the self-proclaimed expert at making deals, agree to such a deal? If it were ignorance of how Congress works, which he certainly is, he could have reneged by tweeting or by simply telling Congressional Republicans that he had changed his mind. He didn’t and the bill was passed the next day in both houses. There is some speculation that he has decided that the Congressional Republicans can’t deliver and he wants some achievements to talk about, and that he has to work with Democrats to get them. But whatever the reason, he clearly has frayed the already tenuous links he had to his own party. Clearly, Republicans have less reason than ever to trust him, more reason to distance themselves from him, and for many no reason anymore to fear thwarting him. Over a year ago, during the Presidential campaign (although I did not put this in print), I thought that one outcome of the election would be the breakup of the Republican Party. I did not foresee this taking place with Trump as President, but rather after he lost and went off to set up his own party. His latest action makes that prediction more credible.
The author is a Senior Scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington DC, and a former US diplomat who was Ambassador to Pakistan and Bangladesh
The tidal surges and biblical rainfall of Hurricane Harvey brought death and immense destruction to Southeastern Texas, Louisiana and other parts of the Gulf of Mexico area of the US. As I sit here tapping on the keyboard, Hurricane Irma is wreaking havoc in both east and west Florida and working its way up the Western coast of that state before, at least as now predicted, heading inland through Georgia and states to the north through which it will deposit huge quantities of rain which will surely cause widespread flooding. The weakening remnants will likely affect Washington before it dies out, though certainly not to the extent that it affects areas further south. To make matters worse, Hurricane Jose is following on Irma’s heels (to use perhaps an inappropriate metaphor) and already threatening Caribbean islands that Irma has already ravaged.
The costs of fighting these fires has some states raiding other accounts for funds. Montana, for example has spent $20 million more than it budgeted for firefighting this year
I have just returned from California, from a Western America that is ravaged by the worst forest and grass fires in a very long time. I have read reports that at least 172 different fires are burning in at least eight states. This comprises most of the states west of the Rocky Mountains. The Forest Service of the USG estimates that about 80 of these fires are “large,” in the sense that they involve areas of over 100 forested acres or 300 grasslands acres.
This summer, over 8m acres in the Western states have burned. That is about twice the average number of acres that have burned over the past 10 years. An overly plentiful amount of precipitation, rain and snow, during the winter months broke the droughts that had plagued several states, especially California. This precipitation led to a luxuriant growth of grass and undergrowth in the forests and grasslands. But a dry summer has made much of this growth into tinder for any spark that comes along. Unfortunately far too many of those sparks are manmade.
While the fire situation in California is dire, it is the Pacific Northwest, Oregon and Washington, as well as Montana that have fared the worst in this fire season. Oregon is especially bad; a dozen fires, at least, are raging in that state. A fire in the Chetco Bar Wilderness has burned about 175,000 acres since July 12, while the Eagle Creek fire, just 30 miles east of the major city of Portland has burned over 30,000 acres of the celebrated Columbia River Gorge since Saturday, September 2.
The costs of fighting these fires has some states raiding other accounts for funds. Montana, for example has spent $20 million more than it budgeted for firefighting this year. Across the West, over 26,000 firefighters have been engaged most of the summer. There is a human cost too as nine firefighters have been killed and 35 injured. Homes, livestock, infrastructure, are also casualties.
In Mexico, 90 people are known to have died in the strongest earthquake to have hit Mexico in 100 years. It registered 8.1 on the Richter Scale, and the damage has been extensive in the remote Southern area where it centered. Details of the damage and the fatalities are sparse at present.
Estimates of the cost of rebuilding and restoring Houston and the other flooded areas after Hurricane Harvey alone run in excess of $100 billion. Hurricane Irma, which is even more powerful and larger in size, may displace as many as 100,000 people in Florida; it certainly will cause unimaginable damage, and is likely to be even more costly. This certainly puts what was thought to be the major upcoming partisan political battles in a very different light. Few elected officials, particularly in Congress, will be able to say no to providing the resources needed to respond to the needs of what may be a very large number of people who need government help to put their lives back together. In the post-hurricane context, many voters will ask if it makes sense to view tax reform, as President Trump does, as way to reduce the taxes of the wealthy and of corporations. They may ask also if the amount of our national budget going to the military should not be pared to help pay for these natural disasters.
Estimates of the cost of rebuilding and restoring Houston and the other flooded areas after Hurricane Harvey alone run in excess of $100 billion
Harvey has taken care of one set of questions which a week ago looked to be partisan problems—the debt ceiling and the first tranche of hurricane relief. In an unparalleled meeting of Congressional leaders with President Trump, a deal was cut to raise the debt ceiling for three months and pass a $15 billion emergency funding bill for the hurricane victims. Congressional Republicans were stunned. With them in the room arguing against it, Trump walked right into a Democratic trap. In doing so he gave the Democrats enormous leverage in the December struggles over a budget, and in their effort to find a legislative solution for the 800,000 “dreamers,” those undocumented young immigrants who immigrated illegally with their parents at a very young age, and who have known no other country as their home. They were exempted from deportation by an executive order signed by President Obama, when he couldn’t get Congress to pass legislation authorizing it in 2014. Trump has said he will rescind the EO in six months if Congress doesn’t find a legislative way to legalize their status. And beyond that this deal gives the Democrats leverage in all the partisan Congressional actions that will be debated in the winter and spring, e.g. health care. As one disgruntled Republican Senator was quoted as saying, “Schumer [Democratic leader in the Senate] has inserted himself into all negotiations in the winter.”
Why did Trump, the self-proclaimed expert at making deals, agree to such a deal? If it were ignorance of how Congress works, which he certainly is, he could have reneged by tweeting or by simply telling Congressional Republicans that he had changed his mind. He didn’t and the bill was passed the next day in both houses. There is some speculation that he has decided that the Congressional Republicans can’t deliver and he wants some achievements to talk about, and that he has to work with Democrats to get them. But whatever the reason, he clearly has frayed the already tenuous links he had to his own party. Clearly, Republicans have less reason than ever to trust him, more reason to distance themselves from him, and for many no reason anymore to fear thwarting him. Over a year ago, during the Presidential campaign (although I did not put this in print), I thought that one outcome of the election would be the breakup of the Republican Party. I did not foresee this taking place with Trump as President, but rather after he lost and went off to set up his own party. His latest action makes that prediction more credible.
The author is a Senior Scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington DC, and a former US diplomat who was Ambassador to Pakistan and Bangladesh