Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif left Islamabad for Astana full of worries. Pakistan’s isolation, heated borders both on its east and west and the emerging polarization in the Middle East, especially Qatar, were on his mind. Saturday afternoon when he landed in Lahore, he was a more relaxed man but the worries about the Middle East were still there.
As he embarked on his Astana dash for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit along with a clutch of journalists and a couple of cabinet colleagues, he was worried about the situation on the borders and in the region. Just a day before his departure for the Kazakh capital, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani had made an incendiary speech accusing Islamabad of using terror for foreign policy objectives. On the eastern front, a cross border exchange of fire power had emerged as the new norm both on the LoC and the working boundary coupled with the inflammatory outbursts from Delhi.
But Astana would prove a cool reprieve and healing touch.
The 13th SCO summit was not an ordinary event. For the first time in its history, the organization was opening its doors to two South Asian neighbours locked in a conflict for seven decades. With Pakistan and India’s entry into the Central Asian club, the organization extended its reach into South Asia. After this moot, the organization now encompasses around half of the earth’s population and around twenty percent of its GDP.
The SCO message conveyed to its leaders on South Asia was unambiguous. Putin, Xi and the leaders of the Central Asian nations want a cessation of hostilities between India and Pakistan and stability and peace in Afghanistan. They put this across to the leaders of India, Pakistan and Afghanistan without mincing their words.
Russia’s military muscle and energy pool on one side and China’s economic power on the other are the twin towers of the SCO. Both are engaged with the military might and financial power of the US and its allies. Both want US influence to wane. The Afghan leadership that heavily relies on financial and military support from the US was persuaded by the Russian and Chinese leadership to not totally and solely look to the US for its survival. With divisions at home as it is surrounded by Russia, China, Iran and Pakistan, the Afghan leadership was persuaded to engage Pakistan positively. It worked like magic.
When late morning last Friday Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif came down from the 22nd floor of the Ramada Hotel to the suite of President Ashraf Ghani who was staying just one floor down, the meeting was expected to last just thirty minutes. As Pakistani journalists waited outside Ghani’s suite, they thought it would wrap up soon. To their surprise the door stayed closed for 30 minutes and then double that time. When the security and protocol staff eventually sprung into action, both leaders emerged with broad smiles. Ghani went with Sharif in the elevator a floor up to see him off. The journos read this as white smoke from the conclave.
An hour later, when both Pakistan and India were admitted as full members of the Asian-Eurasian club, the Afghan leader congratulated them. Saturday afternoon when Afghanistan and Pakistan issued statements about the meeting, the text, although issued separately, was almost the same. The reward was the revival of the Quadrilateral Contact Group and re-initiation of the joint mechanism to monitor and implement anti-terror mechanisms which Afghanistan had opted out of after the news of Mullah Omar’s death broke. The death of Mullah Akhtar Mansoor in a drone strike, skirmishes on the borders and the frequent closure of the Torkham and Chaman border crossings had made it worse. That had been the start of frayed ties with Pakistan.
UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres was also in Astana and met PM Nawaz Sharif. He was scheduled to head to Kabul which is why he took this time to discuss the Afghan imbroglio with the Pakistani PM, who assured him of a positive engagement on bringing peace to its neighbour.
Indian and Pakistani media carried page after page of stories on a possible meeting between Nawaz Sharif and Narendra Modi as they had landed there almost simultaneously on Thursday, June 8. The same evening, camera-toting Indian journalists salivated in the lobby of the Ramada to get a glimpse of the Pakistani prime minister when he would appear from the elevator to go for the dinner for the heads of state. They ambushed him with questions but Nawaz Sharif didn’t utter a single word and just waved at them with a big smile. Pakistani journalist Iftikhar Ahmed translated that smile as saying the PM was about to meet Modi. Lo and behold, they did meet at the dinner table, and again the following day. No press release was issued but the grapevine did whisper of some sort of thaw.
As the SCO summit was in progress, the bad news of the killing of two Chinese nationals by Daesh in Balochistan hit the headlines. Although there was no scheduled meeting between PM Nawaz and President Xi Jinping, they met a couple of times.
Saturday evening, Russian supremo Vladimir Putin met Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on the sidelines of the new and improved SCO. Leaving the stereotypical press release aside, the vibes were good. Besides regional conflicts, cooperation, ranging from energy to markets, and defence were discussed.
The eruption of hostilities between the Saudi-led Gulf countries and Qatar, however is the latest headache for the Pakistani state. Everybody, Nawaz Sharif included, is worried about a flareup and its implications for Pakistan. Although Nawaz has consulted many, including Turkey’s Erdogan, during the last few days, he had not necessarily made up his mind which way to go while in Astana. Pakistan is stuck between a rock and a hard place on policy options. On one hand it is being pressed for unconditional compliance by the Saudis and on the other hand it can’t abandon Qatar who has signed off on its biggest LNG deals.
The largest overseas population that sends the biggest chunk of hard currency in remittances resides in the Gulf countries led by Saudi Arabia, which is an economic vulnerability fully known to the anti-Qatar lobby in the Gulf. A divided Middle East at war with itself is the stuff of nightmares. The prime minister does not want to abandon Qatar but does not want to annoy Saudi Arabia and the UAE either. That is what prompted him to dash to Riyadh on Monday despite the fact that he had summoned his Gulf envoys the same day to advise him. He also may discuss the issue with other parties inside or outside parliament.
The writer is a broadcast journalist based in Islamabad. He tweets as @murtazasolangi
As he embarked on his Astana dash for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit along with a clutch of journalists and a couple of cabinet colleagues, he was worried about the situation on the borders and in the region. Just a day before his departure for the Kazakh capital, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani had made an incendiary speech accusing Islamabad of using terror for foreign policy objectives. On the eastern front, a cross border exchange of fire power had emerged as the new norm both on the LoC and the working boundary coupled with the inflammatory outbursts from Delhi.
But Astana would prove a cool reprieve and healing touch.
The 13th SCO summit was not an ordinary event. For the first time in its history, the organization was opening its doors to two South Asian neighbours locked in a conflict for seven decades. With Pakistan and India’s entry into the Central Asian club, the organization extended its reach into South Asia. After this moot, the organization now encompasses around half of the earth’s population and around twenty percent of its GDP.
The SCO message conveyed to its leaders on South Asia was unambiguous. Putin, Xi and the leaders of the Central Asian nations want a cessation of hostilities between India and Pakistan and stability and peace in Afghanistan. They put this across to the leaders of India, Pakistan and Afghanistan without mincing their words.
Russia’s military muscle and energy pool on one side and China’s economic power on the other are the twin towers of the SCO. Both are engaged with the military might and financial power of the US and its allies. Both want US influence to wane. The Afghan leadership that heavily relies on financial and military support from the US was persuaded by the Russian and Chinese leadership to not totally and solely look to the US for its survival. With divisions at home as it is surrounded by Russia, China, Iran and Pakistan, the Afghan leadership was persuaded to engage Pakistan positively. It worked like magic.
When late morning last Friday Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif came down from the 22nd floor of the Ramada Hotel to the suite of President Ashraf Ghani who was staying just one floor down, the meeting was expected to last just thirty minutes. As Pakistani journalists waited outside Ghani’s suite, they thought it would wrap up soon. To their surprise the door stayed closed for 30 minutes and then double that time. When the security and protocol staff eventually sprung into action, both leaders emerged with broad smiles. Ghani went with Sharif in the elevator a floor up to see him off. The journos read this as white smoke from the conclave.
An hour later, when both Pakistan and India were admitted as full members of the Asian-Eurasian club, the Afghan leader congratulated them. Saturday afternoon when Afghanistan and Pakistan issued statements about the meeting, the text, although issued separately, was almost the same. The reward was the revival of the Quadrilateral Contact Group and re-initiation of the joint mechanism to monitor and implement anti-terror mechanisms which Afghanistan had opted out of after the news of Mullah Omar’s death broke. The death of Mullah Akhtar Mansoor in a drone strike, skirmishes on the borders and the frequent closure of the Torkham and Chaman border crossings had made it worse. That had been the start of frayed ties with Pakistan.
UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres was also in Astana and met PM Nawaz Sharif. He was scheduled to head to Kabul which is why he took this time to discuss the Afghan imbroglio with the Pakistani PM, who assured him of a positive engagement on bringing peace to its neighbour.
Indian and Pakistani media carried page after page of stories on a possible meeting between Nawaz Sharif and Narendra Modi as they had landed there almost simultaneously on Thursday, June 8. The same evening, camera-toting Indian journalists salivated in the lobby of the Ramada to get a glimpse of the Pakistani prime minister when he would appear from the elevator to go for the dinner for the heads of state. They ambushed him with questions but Nawaz Sharif didn’t utter a single word and just waved at them with a big smile. Pakistani journalist Iftikhar Ahmed translated that smile as saying the PM was about to meet Modi. Lo and behold, they did meet at the dinner table, and again the following day. No press release was issued but the grapevine did whisper of some sort of thaw.
As the SCO summit was in progress, the bad news of the killing of two Chinese nationals by Daesh in Balochistan hit the headlines. Although there was no scheduled meeting between PM Nawaz and President Xi Jinping, they met a couple of times.
Saturday evening, Russian supremo Vladimir Putin met Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on the sidelines of the new and improved SCO. Leaving the stereotypical press release aside, the vibes were good. Besides regional conflicts, cooperation, ranging from energy to markets, and defence were discussed.
The eruption of hostilities between the Saudi-led Gulf countries and Qatar, however is the latest headache for the Pakistani state. Everybody, Nawaz Sharif included, is worried about a flareup and its implications for Pakistan. Although Nawaz has consulted many, including Turkey’s Erdogan, during the last few days, he had not necessarily made up his mind which way to go while in Astana. Pakistan is stuck between a rock and a hard place on policy options. On one hand it is being pressed for unconditional compliance by the Saudis and on the other hand it can’t abandon Qatar who has signed off on its biggest LNG deals.
The largest overseas population that sends the biggest chunk of hard currency in remittances resides in the Gulf countries led by Saudi Arabia, which is an economic vulnerability fully known to the anti-Qatar lobby in the Gulf. A divided Middle East at war with itself is the stuff of nightmares. The prime minister does not want to abandon Qatar but does not want to annoy Saudi Arabia and the UAE either. That is what prompted him to dash to Riyadh on Monday despite the fact that he had summoned his Gulf envoys the same day to advise him. He also may discuss the issue with other parties inside or outside parliament.
The writer is a broadcast journalist based in Islamabad. He tweets as @murtazasolangi